Week 1 is in the books. If you had Fitzmagic in your lineups then you should’ve won your contests. Make sure to take everything we learned from Week 1 with a grain of salt. What I mean by that is it takes a few weeks for us to have enough information to start formulating and assigning consistencies for teams. Don’t overreact too much from one week and rush to lock in all the same studs hoping they will have a repeat performance, you’ll just lose your winnings you just won. The first 2-3 weeks is preseason for a lot of these guys so you never know what can happen. Enough chat, let’s start breaking this down. I will be trying to get this out earlier with pages.
CAR @ ATL (-6) o/u 44.5
Carolina is coming off a home victory over the Cowboys while the Falcons have been licking their wounds since the Thursday road loss to the defending Superbowl champs. Both of these games were relatively low-scoring, and the only impressive player to note was Julio Jones. Recency bias should have Julio as one of the highest-owned receivers this week. Carolina only put up 16 points against Dallas so the question here is, are the Cowboys solid defensively, or are the Panthers just not that explosive on the other end? It’s probably a mix of both..
QB: Cam Newton did not have the greatest game and his price decreased a bit as a result. $6600 is a bit pricey considering that he hasn’t performed that well in Atlanta in the past. Contrarian play if you are looking for a low-owned QB this week.
RB: Christian McCaffrey’s price shot up to 7k after an average performance last week. He should still be a focal point of the offense so he’s definitely in play, just not as high with the price bump. Solid cash play.
WR: Funchess may step into a bigger role like last year with the injury to Greg Olsen. At $4700 he should be in a prime spot to reach value with Olsen ruled out.
TE: Fading here. The Falcons have capable linebackers that can defend the tight end spot as we saw against Ertz.
CAR D/ST: pass
QB: Matt Ryan is down to $5700 and is looking like a great bounce back candidate after the poor outing against the Eagles.
RB: Freeman struggled before exiting early with a knee injury against the Eagles. His price dropped to 6k after that performance, but he’s still not on my radar for this week. Tevin Coleman was bumped up to $5300 and is only viable if Freeman is ruled out. **update** Freeman was ruled out.
WR: Julio Jones is listed at $8400 this week which to me might actually be too cheap. I’ll be looking to fit him in my lineups wherever possible. Sanu and Ridley are priced cheap as well, but not in consideration for me just yet. Need to see some production to justify rostering either of them.
TE: no thanks
ATL D/ST: meh could be a good play if Falcons can stay in control of this game.
IND @ WAS (-6) o/u 48
Luck looked decent in the loss to the Bengals at home while the Redskins controlled the entire game against the Cardinals. Indy, like Arizona, has a weak offensive line. My gut reaction wants to say that Washington can control this game in a similar fashion, but it should stay close because Andrew Luck is a lot better than Sam Bradford.
QB: Andrew Luck started off with an early pick, but then it was all uphill from there. He looked good and at $6200 he is in consideration with this game being a potential shootout.
RB: Wilkins is up to $4400 and will get the majority of touches if Mack is out again. Washington shut down the run game of the Cardinals so I won’t be quick to roster any player in this backfield. Pay attention to updates with Mack. If he plays then it makes this backfield an even easier fade.
WR: T.Y Hilton should be getting plenty of targets in this offense, but $6700 just seems a bit pricey to me right now. Ryan Grant returns to Washington here and is only $4300 after receiving 9 targets in the previous game. Solid punt play here.
TE: Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron both had decent production against the Bengals. The Colts threw the ball 53 times though so these target numbers may be a little inflated as they had 10 and 5 targets respectively. 2nd tier TE plays to me.
IND D/ST: I’ll be looking elsewhere
QB: Alex Smith seems too pricey here when I can get Matt Ryan for cheaper..
RB: AP and Chris Thompson both looked good against the Cardinals. I do think the recent success can continue against the Colts, but they are considerably more expensive this week at $5500 and $5900 respectively. These price points should lower ownership some so they could be sneaky plays.
WR: My guess is that the Redskins will be running the ball a lot as they control this game from start to end. If you think they will need to throw more then these guys are all fairly cheap punt plays.
TE: Jordan Reed is back and healthy for now. As the best passing option for Alex Smith, outside of Chris Thompson, his price point of 5k is fair and could pay off if the Colts keep it close and force Washington to throw it more.
WAS D/ST: At $2700 this isn’t a terrible option against the weak Indy o-line.
HOU @ TEN (+2) o/u 44.5
Both of these teams had tough losses, but only one was to a good team. Tennessee got banged up against the Dolphins as Deshaun struggled against the Patriots.
QB: Even with his struggles against the Patriots week 1, at $6300 Deshaun Watson will be a popular play this week.
RB: Lamar Miller is still pretty cheap at $5400. In play more for cash games though.
WR: Deandre Hopkins is in a great spot after being shut down by Bill like I mentioned could be the case last week. Will Fuller sat out last week and still got a price bump. He should be low-owned and is intriguing given his high ceiling.
HOU D/ST: Good spot for a relatively cheap defense if you want to pass on the LA teams.
QB: Mariota got banged up against the Dolphins but looks like he is on track to play this weekend. A lot of quarterbacks play better at home and Marcus is no exception. $5600 is cheap and he should be able to reach value. Good pivot off of Matt Ryan.
RB: Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry look to be in a time share with Dion Lewis benefiting more from being behind last week. He is cheaper than Henry and I think the flow of the game will benefit him more again this week.
WR: Delanie Walker was placed on IR so this receiving core will get a bump. On top of that they get to go against one of the weaker DB cores this week. Corey Davis is my favorite of the receivers and is play at $5100.
TEN D/ST: Too much firepower on the Houston offense for me
PHI @ TB (+3.5) o/u 44
To me this line is a bit of an overreaction from one game. I don’t think the Bucs are going to have the same success they did against the Saints in this one. The Eagles are well rested and have one of the best defenses in the league. Wentz is still out, but I think Foles will be fine in Tampa.
QB: Foles is the same price as Matt Ryan this week at $5700. After the weak week 1 of his he gets an easier matchup against the Bucs defense that gave up 40 points last week. Now obviously he isn’t Brees and doesn’t have the same weapons as Brees, but I still think he could reach value.
RB: No RB looked great for the Eagles in week 1. Ajayi salvaged his value by getting two touchdowns on the day, but we can’t predict touchdowns so at $6300 Ajayi feels too expensive. Corey Clement is only $3500 and with Sproles out I would expect that to benefit him more than Ajayi. Cheap punt play especially if you think the Bucs will keep it close like the Vegas line predicts.
WR: Still no Alshon in this one so the WR core should get a bump. Agholor had 8 catches but only 33 yards. He is $6100 and a solid mid-tier play with a high ceiling. Mike Wallace should be in consideration too at $3900. He only needs one big play to reach value.
TE: Zach Ertz was dropped to $6100 after getting shut down most of the game against the Falcons. He still ended with 10 targets and should be in line for similar work this week. He gets a bump too with Alshon out.
PHI D/ST: Good pivot off the LA teams. Should be lower owned and has just as high of a ceiling.
QB: I cannot see Fitz having much success this week against the Eagles. Fading here.
RB: Peyton is only 4k, but I won’t be wasting any on him.
WR: All of the receivers on this team got a bump and are too expensive in my opinion. Mike Evans is the only one worth considering.
TE: O.J. Howard could be in play here. Philly should eliminate some of the big plays these guys got last week leading to O.J. being more involved.
TB D/ST: Nah..
KC @ PIT (-4.5) o/u 54
Highest total on the board for this weekend at 54. This is shaping up to be an offensive shootout as neither teams play much defense. In these high scoring games we will definitely need some exposure. This will be a test for the Chiefs as they go into an actual hostile away environment this time.
QB: Mahomes is going to have to prove he is consistent. His stats were not the greatest last week, but when you throw for 4 TDs on 15 completions you can still reach value and then some. Personally, I will be staying away and then re-evaluating him after this test in Pittsburgh.
RB: Kareem Hunt is another prime bounce back candidate and has been priced down to $6200. Recency bias should have people looking elsewhere. He will start getting more involved as more teams start taking away the big plays the Chiefs thrived off of in Week 1.
WR: Tyreek Hill got priced up with the big boys after the stellar week 1 performance. He should be boom or bust against the weak secondary here once again. Leaning more to a fade for me as I would rather spend up on Jones, AB, or Hopkins instead.
TE: Travis Kelce is a sneaky tournament play that shouldn’t be owned much at all. Look elsewhere for cash games until we get more of an idea about his rapport with Mahomes.
KC D/ST: nope.
QB: Big Ben is probably going to be the highest owned QB this week. Squeeze him in if you can.
RB: James Conner got everything he could handle last week with the weather conditions the way they were. At $6700 he is more fairly priced now. He should still get 20+ touches this game against a bad run D. Definitely in consideration again.
WR: AB and Juju are both in play here.
TE: Vance is back so I’ll pass on him and Jesse James.
PIT D/ST: At $2700 they could be a sneaky tourney play. There is a chance the KC attack sputters out after the hot start.