DFS Week 4 – 9/30/18

Alright the first 3 weeks are in the books and now the regular season can start! We got some byes with the Panthers and Redskins getting this week off.

Sticking with the same format.

Tier 1: Borderline lock plays with a decent chance to be consistent and reach value.
Tier 2: Step below the above.
Darts: High risk high reward players that should be lower-owned
Punts: Value option that has an increased role or a decent matchup to consider.

NYJ @ JAX (-7.5) o/u 38.5

NYJ: The Jets looked more like the Jets we know after blowing a lead to the Baker Mayfield led Browns. They now get to go into Jacksonville where I don’t think they will be finding much success. Enunwa business is in a nice GPP spot where he should be low-owned, but other than that don’t waste your time with the J E T S…

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Quincy Enunwa
Punts:

JAX: What a great game against the Titans last week eh? After being on the wrong end of a 6 to 9 thriller, the Jags now get to come home and take their frustration out on a rookie QB.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Leonard Fournette (looking like he should return)
Darts: Blake Bortles
Punts:

MIA @ NE (-7) o/u 48

MIA: Who thought Miami would be leading this division and be undefeated right now? Not me. They have looked decent so far with Tannehill back at the helm, but I think their win streak ends here in New England.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Ryan Tannehill, Kenny Stills
Darts: DeVante Parker, Jakeem Grant, Albert Wilson, Kenyan Drake
Punts: Mike Gesiki (great spot here with Derby being ruled out)

NE:

Tier 1: Rob Gronkowski
Tier 2: Tom Brady (we don’t see Brady under 7k often..), Sony Michel (time to take over this backfield)
Darts:
Punts: Sony (yeah tier 2 too, but he’s cheap and in a good spot here with Burkhead being ruled out)

PHI @ TEN (+4) o/u 41

PHI: Wentz is back, but looks like he’s going to need a few games to get up to speed. Alshon is returning too making this a murkier receiving core for fantasy purposes. Staying away until further notice.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Zach Ertz
Darts:
Punts:

TEN: The Titans have gutted out back to back wins against the Jags and Texans after starting the season off with a loss against the Dolphins. It hasn’t been pretty, but tell that to the win column. For DFS it’s hard to trust any of the Titans even though they are cheap. All darts at this stage of what looks to be another low-scoring affair this weekend.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Corey Davis (okay Davis is less risky than the others since Rishard was released)
Darts: Marcus Mariota, Derrick Henry, Dion Lewis
Punts:

HOU @ IND (-1) o/u 47

HOU: The Texans are off to a rough start this year and need to right the ship soon else Bill O’Brien’s seat will start to heat up. The Colts have shown a solid defense so far but I don’t think they have anyone to stop the Fuller Hopkins combo.

Tier 1: Deshaun Watson (just too cheap here)
Tier 2: Hopkins, Fuller (his price deters me down to a 2nd tier option)
Darts: Lamar Miller (he should get 15-20 touches still, at 5k he could pay off)
Punts:

IND: Luck still isn’t healthy despite what the coaches are saying… the hail mary at the end of the game last week says it all. If you didn’t see it, it was Jacoby Brissett out there to throw it.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: T.Y. Hilton
Darts: Andrew Luck (Houston doesn’t have a great pass defense and I’m sure all the hate on him not being healthy will fire him up here), Hines (long shot with no floor, GPP only)
Punts:

BUF @ GB (-9.5) o/u 45.5

BUF: Bills mafia went into Minnesota and dominated the Vikes. Now they turn around and head to Green Bay for another NFC North matchup. Don’t expect the same results here.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Lesean McCoy
Darts: Kelvin Benjamin
Punts:

GB: Rough game in Washington last week with AP destroying the Packers and Clay getting yet another roughing the passer call to close out the chances of a comeback. I expect a bounce back here for Rodgers and company.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams (solid floor for cash games), Geronimo Allison, Randall Cobb
Darts:
Punts: Aaron Jones (he’s too cheap here and should prove it’s his backfield this game, borderline Tier 1)

DET @ DAL (-3) o/u 44

DET: Detroit is headed to Dallas after smoking New England last week. Kerryon is expanding his role and looks to have secured the lead back position after putting up 100 yards on 16 carries.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Golladay, Kerryon, Tate, Marvin Jones
Darts:
Punts:

DAL: Dallas has looked very poor on offense outside of Zeke this first few weeks. Even with the volume he hasn’t had his breakout game yet.

Tier 1: Zeke
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

TB @ CHI (-3) o/u 46.5

TB: The Fitzmagic ran out on Monday night as he threw 3 interceptions in the loss to Pittsburgh. This may be the last time we see Ryan as the QB in Tampa for this season depending on the outcome. He will be facing some extra pressure against Mack and da Bears so I’m thinking Jameis time after the bye week.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Godwin, Evans, Howard
Darts:
Punts:

CHI: The Bears get to travel back home this week after struggling to beat the lowly Cardinals. This is setting up to be a good game and one that Mitch should be able to showcase his offense some more.

Tier 1: Jordan Howard, Allen Robinson
Tier 2:
Darts: Mitch (too cheap)
Punts: Trey Burton

CIN @ ATL (-4) o/u 53.5

CIN: Cincy has looked better at home to start the year. Atlanta is a tough matchup for them but I expect them to be able to put up some points to keep it competitive.

Tier 1: Andy Dalton, Boyd, Bernard
Tier 2: A.J. Green (tier 2 because his groin issue, almost tier 1 because he’s cheap)
Darts: Eifert
Punts:

ATL:  Wow, that Drew Brees spin move must hurt if you are a Falcons fan.. Cincy has a better defense so I don’t expect as many points as last week to be put up. Despite the Bengals having a decent secondary, one thing they have been giving up is receiving touchdowns.

Tier 1: Julio Jones, Matt Ryan (too cheap)
Tier 2: Tevin Coleman
Darts: Calvin Ridley, Ito Smith
Punts:

SEA @ ARI (+3) o/u 39

SEA: Seattle may get Baldwin back this week. Not sure if that will change much on their side as Seattle has a lot of thing to figure out.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Russell Wilson (cheap for his high ceiling from him being the team), Chris Carson
Punts:

ARI: The Rosen era has officially commenced. Anything is an improvement from the way they looked the first 3 weeks so hopefully this move can breathe some life back into David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. They are still risky plays, but their prices have come down enough to warrant some exposure.

Tier 1: 
Tier 2:
Darts: Josh Rosen (high risk, but doesn’t need much to reach value), Christian Kirk, David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald 
Punts:

CLE @ OAK (-3) o/u 45

CLE: It’s Baker time. I am not going to get into it on here, but last weeks game looked very scripted by the league.. The Raiders can stop anyone right now so the receiving core gets a bump for sure.

Tier 1: Landry (borderline Tier 2 because he feels a little expensive)
Tier 2: Hyde
Darts: Baker Mayfield (boom or bust feeling here), Callaway, Higgins
Punts:

OAK: Will this be the game Gruden gets his first win since returning to the Raiders? It might just be.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Jordy, Cooper, Carr
Punts:

NO @ NYG (+3.5) o/u 50.5

NO: Kamara makes this team go. After this week he will be splitting more with Ingram back to help shoulder the load. One thing to point out here is that this is the Saints first game not in a dome. I expect that to hinder this offense a bit and slow down Brees.

Tier 1: Kamara (sooo pricey though)
Tier 2: Thomas, Brees
Darts:
Punts:

NYG: The Giants finally got their first win and now get to come back home against the Saints. The Saints have not been able to stop anyone yet, and the 50+ point total suggests that trend should continue. I don’t like rostering a bunch of Giants players, but this may be the week to do so. Engram being out only bumps up Sterling and Odell more.

Tier 1: Eli Manning, Odell, Saquon, Sterling
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

SF @ LAC -10.5 o/u 46.5

SF: Beathard gets another chance at proving he can be a starter. He should be throwing the ball a lot this game to keep up with the Chargers. Keep an eye on Breida and his status, Alfred may get a few extra touches this game.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Breida
Darts: Beathard, Kittle
Punts:

LAC: The Chargers have looked fairly solid this year despite being 1-2. Remove a couple costly turnovers and they could easily have beaten the Rams last week. They should be able to dominate the Jimmy G-less niners and get back to .500.

Tier 1: Melvin Gordon
Tier 2: Keenan Allen, Philip Rivers, Mike Williams
Darts: Ekeler
Punts:

 

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