DFS Week 5 – 10/7/18

Already into October and over a quarter through the regular season. Time flies when you’re watching football. We got a couple bye week teams this week 5 in the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Sticking with the same format. (yeah, copy and paste)

Tier 1: Borderline lock plays with a decent chance to be consistent and reach value.
Tier 2: Step below the above.
Darts: High risk high reward players that should be lower-owned
Punts: Value option that has an increased role or a decent matchup to consider.

TEN @ BUF (+5) o/u 39.5

TEN: Titans knocked off the defending champs last week and now try to carry that momentum into this week against one of the worst teams in the league. This has a trap game feeling, but there is a cheap play or two here that may be worth some exposure.

Tier 1: TEN D/ST
Tier 2: Dion Lewis
Darts: Derrick Henry (he’s due to break out one of these days, why not now while he’s cheap)
Punts:

BUF: Bills are still bad and just made the Packers look like they have a good defense. Well, the Titans have a much better defense so there’s that. I will be fading here once again. Sure they could bounce back, but I won’t be throwing that dart.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: McCoy, Josh Allen, Kelvin.. [good luck]
Punts:

ATL @ PIT (-3) o/u 58

ATL: This should be a high scoring affair as neither of these teams play defense. Freeman is back now so that should give the Falcons a more balanced attack. Only thing I am worried about is this game being outdoors. Matt Ryan and the receivers get a bump down because of that, but the upside is definitely there with the way the Pittsburgh defense has been looking.

Tier 1: Julio (border tier 2), Matt Ryan (border Tier 2)
Tier 2: Ridley (tier 2 because he’s very TD dependent, has been on fire though)
Darts: Sanu (sneaky), Devonta
Punts:

PIT: Biggest news for this team is the potential return of Bell on their bye week, week 7. They need him that’s for sure. Until then we will get to see the air attack in full force, especially this week against the Falcons. Lots of points to be had in this one, and they are priced up accordingly.

Tier 1: Big Ben, AB, JuJu
Tier 2: Conner, Vance
Darts: James Washington
Punts:

DEN @ NYJ (+1) o/u 42.5

DEN: Denver had an opportunity to take the Chiefs out, but Case just didn’t have enough fire power. It was nice to see the defense step up a bit and slow them down some, but that doesn’t get W’s. They should be able to build off the loss as they go into New York this week to take on the struggling Jets. Nothing too exciting DFS-wise.

Tier 1: DEN D/ST
Tier 2: Lindsay, Freeman, Sanders, Demaryius
Darts:
Punts: Heuerman

NYJ: The Jets were good for one game and then that plane crashed and burned. They are at home, but that’s about all they have going for them right now. All these players should be low-owned and for good reason. I get a Bills feeling from looking at this team… (that’s not a compliment)

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Darnold, Enunwa, Powell [good luck]
Punts:

JAX @ KC (-3) o/u 49

JAX: Arguably a matchup of best defense vs best offense this week, or best defense vs worst defense depending how you want to look at it. Regardless, this looks like a good spot to get some Jags in our lineups.

Tier 1: Bortles, Westbrook, Yeldon
Tier 2: Cole, Moncrief
Darts: Corey Grant
Punts:

KC: Chiefs barely escaped with their untarnished record last week in Denver. Hopefully they properly thanked the ref that missed the clear delay of game penalty on their TD drive to take the lead. Now they get to go home only to face one of the best defenses in the league and their luck may run out here. They have been priced down from what we saw a couple weeks ago so they are still in play.

Tier 1: Kelce
Tier 2: Tyreek, Hunt, Watkins (if he plays), Conley (if Watkins is out)
Darts:
Punts:

GB @ DET (+1) o/u 51

GB: The Packers got back on track last week against the lowly Bills, and now get to face off against a division rival, the Lions. O my. Rodgers always seems to play up here, but the Lions have also shown an inability to stop the run through the first 4 weeks which brings his ceiling down a bit. Speaking of Rodgers, he mentioned that he wants to see more of the other Aaron. Just saying…

Tier 1: Rodgers, Aaron Jones
Tier 2: Davante, Allison (borderline Tier 1 if he plays and Cobb is out)
Darts:
Punts: Marquez Valdes-Scantling (if Cobb and Allison are ruled out)

DET: Detroit is returning home to the Packers after a tough road loss to Dallas. This game is shaping up to be a shootout. The Packers D looked solid last week, but that was against the Bills. Keep an eye on if Kevin King plays or not for the Packers secondary. If he sits, the passing attack should have an easier time keeping up with Rodgers.

Tier 1: Stafford (if King is ruled out), Marvin Jones (too cheap), Tate
Tier 2: Golladay, Kerryon
Darts:
Punts:

BAL @ CLE (+3) o/u 45.5

BAL: The Ravens are 3-1 to start the season with their only loss to the Bengals. They now face the Baker-led Browns to round out the first set of division matchups. Cleveland just gave up 45 points to the struggling Raiders last week, but that was also on the road. I expect a better showing from their defense as they return home, which also means my exposure to the Ravens will be limited.

Tier 1: John Brown (turning into the #1 receiver here)
Tier 2: BAL D/ST (not convinced with them on the road)
Darts: Alex Collins, Buck Allen
Punts:

CLE: Going into this division matchup I am curious to see how the Browns bounce back. Overall they still have weapons and look like a decent team, but as last Sunday reminded us, they are still the Browns. If they lose this game it wouldn’t surprise me if Hue lost his job soon after.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Landry
Darts: Baker, Callaway, Njoku
Punts:

NYG @ CAR (-6.5) o/u 44

NYG: This team continues to struggle. The only consistently good player has been Saquon. With Evan Engram still sidelined you can bump up Sterling and OBJ a bit.

Tier 1: Saquon, Sterling Shepard
Tier 2: OBJ
Darts:
Punts:

CAR: The Panthers are fresh off a bye and get to pick up their season back at home against the Giants. Their defense gets a bump with the addition of Eric Reid at safety. Cam and McCaffrey run this offense and I don’t expect that changing in the near future. Look for Funchess to be involved somewhat since Olsen is still out.

Tier 1: Cam, McCaffrey
Tier 2:
Darts: Funchess
Punts:

MIA @ CIN (-6) o/u 48.5

MIA: Miami suffered their first lost against the Patriots last week. They now get to go into Cincinnati to try and bounce back. This is a decent matchup for them on paper for the passing attack, but Tannehill just isn’t that good and doesn’t have much of receiving core to help him out. Also, Burfict is back for the Bengals so I expect that to bump up the Bengals defense as a whole.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Drake (cheap, but not getting touches the last couple games..)
Punts:

CIN:  As mentioned above, Burfict is back for the Bengals. This should help their defense considerably. Bernard has also been ruled out just in time for Mixon to come back into a hefty workload. I expect them to control this game and use Mixon a lot to eat the clock as long as he doesn’t show signs of fatigue after being out two weeks. That being said, Boyd and A.J. Green could be relied on a bit more without Eifert and with Mixon just coming back from his injury.

Tier 1: CIN D/ST
Tier 2: A.J Green, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon
Darts: Tyler Kroft, Uzomah, Mark Walton
Punts:

OAK @ LAC (-5) o/u 53

OAK: The Raiders finally got their first win of the season as they escaped in overtime against the Browns. All of their players seem a bit too cheap this week after they put up decent numbers while scoring 45 points at home. Traveling to LA to play the Chargers is basically another home game for the Raiders.

Tier 1: Jordy (too cheap)
Tier 2: Amari Cooper (he should draw Casey Hayward defense so bumping him down, still cheap though), Jared Cook, Marshawn
Darts: Derek Carr
Punts:

LAC: The Chargers struggled to barely defeat the Niners who are without their starting QB. They now get the Raiders coming to town who just gave up 42 points to the Browns and the week before that 28 to the Dolphins. Chargers should continue this trend and put points up against them as well.

Tier 1: Melvin Gordon III, Rivers, Keenan
Tier 2:
Darts: Mike Williams (should be low-owned after the dud game last week), Ekeler
Punts:

ARI @ SF (-4) o/u 40

ARI: Arizona is bad, but Josh Rosen apparently gives the team some hope. I haven’t seen much out of him yet, but he is cheap and should be low-owned if you want to take a chance. David Johnson looks to be in a prime spot this week and is too cheap to not give him some exposure.

Tier 1: David Johnson
Tier 2:
Darts: Rosen, Larry Fitzgerald (he’s been due..), Christian Kirk
Punts:

SF: Beathard almost led the Niners to an upset win over the Chargers. Kittle looks to be the go to guy now for him with Garcon next in line. This game could turn to a shootout so some of these players are in sneaky GPP positions.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Kittle, Breida
Darts: Beathard, Garcon
Punts:

MIN @ PHI (-3) o/u 47

MIN: Minnesota couldn’t keep up with the Rams last Thursday night, and now get to face the Eagles in a NFC championship rematch. The Eagles have struggles of their own as we saw Mariota and Corey Davis tear their defense apart last week. That should set the tone for Theilen and Diggs going into this game. Dalvin is a game time decision and if he sits it only adds to the appeal of Theilen.

Tier 1: Kirk Cousins, Adam Theilen, Stephon Diggs
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

PHI: The defending champs are have not been playing that way yet. They do get to return home where they are 2-0 on the season, but that’s about all they have going for them. The Vikings defense is not as scary with Eversen out of the lineup, which adds to the appeal of Ertz this week if you are paying up for a tight end.

Tier 1: Ertz
Tier 2: Alshon
Darts:
Punts:

LAR @ SEA (+7.5) o/u 50

LAR: The Rams are rolling on offense right now, but the defense looks shaky after losing Talib. The Seahawks will play up for this game as it is in Seattle and a division rivalry game, but I can’t see them keeping up with the Rams for 4 quarters. The loss of Earl Thomas should only make it easier on Goff and the passing attack. The receivers have all been priced up accordingly so we should probably look for value elsewhere.

Tier 1: Goff, Gurley, LAR D/ST
Tier 2: Kupp, Cooks, Woods
Darts:
Punts:

SEA: Seattle is on a 2 game winning streak, but now face their biggest test yet against the Rams. They have faced elite running backs in David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliot in these last 2 games as well, and were able to limit them to under 20 fantasy points. Losing Earl hurts though so I don’t think that trend will continue with Gurley. The Rams are going to put up points so someone is going to have to score for the Seahawks if this game is going to stay close.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Doug Baldwin (, Tyler Lockett
Darts: Russell Wilson (he’s cheap and been due), David Moore, Doug Baldwin
Punts: Nick Vannett

 

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