DFS Week 6 – 10/14/18

Jumping right into breaking down these Week 6 games… bye week for the Lions and Saints.

Tier 1: Borderline lock plays with a decent chance to be consistent and reach value.
Tier 2: Step below the above.
Darts: High risk high reward players that should be lower-owned
Punts: Value option that has an increased role or a decent matchup to consider.

TB @ ATL (-3) o/u 57.50

TB: Jameis is set to take over for the high-powered Bucs offense in his first start this season. Right away he gets a great matchup against the Falcons in what should be a high scoring shootout as implied by the 57.5 point Vegas total. Definitely gonna need some exposure to this one..

Tier 1: Jameis Winston, Chris Godwin
Tier 2: Mike Evans, Desean Jackson
Darts: Ronald Jones, Jacquizz, Cameron Brate (like him, but ATL has defended TE well this season), Adam Humphries
Punts:

ATL: The Falcons extended their losing streak to 3 and have given up over 40 ppg over those last 3. Those may be correlated, you never know. They do get to return home and go against another team that doesn’t play defense. Matt Ryan should look more like himself this week in this perfect bounce back spot.

Tier 1: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Sanu, Hooper
Tier 2: Tevin (border tier 1 if Devonta is out), Freeman (if he plays), Ridley (better value to be found with his price)
Darts:
Punts:

ARI @ MIN (-10) o/u 43

ARI: Not much to see here on the road in Minnesota. The only play slightly tempting here is David Johnson at $5900. That is cheap price and Minnesota’s defense is banged up; I suspect they will load the box and try to force Rosen to beat them. Now if you think lightning can strike twice and they can pull a Buffalo, go ahead and stack this game.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: David Johnson
Punts:

MIN: The Vikings have been relying heavily on the pass game so far this season. The defense has not been the dominant force of the last couple years, but they may look that part this week. The receivers are priced way up now to a point where it is hard to justify paying for them this week with the likely gameflow to feature a mix of Dalvin, Roc, and Latavius.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Roc Thomas, Dalvin Cook
Punts: Latavius Murray

CAR @ WAS (-1) o/u 44.5

CAR: The Panthers barely escaped last week on a game winning 63 yard field. They now look to take that momentum into Washington after the Redskins just got destroyed by the Saints. Kinda surprised to see the Panthers as underdogs here, but that may be more because of recency bias. Olsen looks to be on track to come back this week as well which may lead to a slight decrease in usage for McCaffrey.

Tier 1: Christian McCaffrey (getting pricey)
Tier 2: Cam Newton
Darts:
Punts:

WAS: It is anyone’s guess what Redskins team we’ll see show up this weekend. They have been awful some weeks and stellar the next. Pair that with their banged up offense and I don’t see much reason to play anyone on this team unless Thompson and AP end up being ruled out. Kapri Bibbs would need to have some exposure at that point.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Jamison Crowder
Darts:
Punts: Kapri Bibbs (if Chris Thompson and AP are ruled out)

CHI @ MIA (+3.5) o/u 41.5

CHI: Bears are coming off a bye week and now travel into Miami to take on the Dolphins. This is not a game that jumps of the page as something exciting for fantasy football or exciting to watch in general. Staying away from this game for the most part.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Trey Burton, CHI D/ST
Darts: Tarik Cohen
Punts:

MIA: Dolphins are currently 3-2 which is still better than most expected. Not much to see here as I said above. Vegas says this stays close and they might be right only because this is is in Miami.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Albert Wilson
Punts:

BUF @ HOU (-10) o/u 41

BUF: The Bills have won 2 games now, which is 2 more than I thought they would have at this point in the season. They are looking to build off the win against Tennessee as they travel to Houston to face a more potent offense. Once again there isn’t much to see here..

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

HOU: Houston looks like they are starting to turn it around after the 0-3 start. Buffalo will help get them back to .500 this week. Tre’Davious White is the bright spot for the Bills defense and he should be matched up with Hopkins. This means Keke and Fuller get a bump up.

Tier 1: Keke Coutee (good value here)
Tier 2: Will Fuller (too pricy for my blood, but still has that high ceiling), Deandre Hopkins
Darts:
Punts:

LAC @ CLE (even) o/u 46

LAC: The Chargers have been solid on offense with the Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon show. The Browns have shown an improved defense, but I don’t think that will be enough to stop LA in this one. Volume should still be there for Melvin unless they get behind and have to throw more.

Tier 1: Melvin (should be lower-owned than usual here)
Tier 2: Phillip (price drop is intriguing)
Darts: Mike Williams, Ekeler
Punts:

CLE: All aboard the hype train. I have not jumped on yet, but I may soon. The Chargers are a good test for the Browns this week who get the benefit of playing at home. That gives them a bump, but as I said above, I don’t think it will be enough. On offense they are a little short handed this week in the receiver department.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Jarvis Landry, Baker Mayfield
Darts:
Punts:

SEA @ OAK (+2.5) o/u 48.5

SEA: Seattle finally woke up for their division game against the Rams last week and were able to put up some points. It looks like they are trying to keep it on the ground more with the one-two punch of Chris Carson and Mike Davis. Both are cheap and in play here, just more risky as they are splitting carries.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

OAK: The Raiders are underdogs at home in this matchup with Seattle. No one is going to be more motivated than Marshawn Lynch in this one. The only thing that would make have made this game sweeter was it being in Seattle.

Tier 1: Marshawn Lynch
Tier 2: Jordy Nelson
Darts: Cooper (he has followed up his shit games with monster games, just in case that trend continues I will have a little exposure)
Punts:

PIT @ CIN (-1.5) o/u 51.5

PIT: Another high scoring affair for the Steelers this week as they face off against the Bengals. The Bengals have had a decent run D and Burfict is getting up to game speed so I expect the Steelers to have to do more damage in the air. Only issue there is that Ben seems to struggle more on the road. That being said, this game starts to feel like a trap game.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Antonio Brown (obligatory), James Conner
Darts:
Punts:

CIN: Bengals defense stepped up last week to get them the W over the Dolphins. They get a bit tougher opponent coming to town this week against the Steelers in a division game. I actually like this spot for the Bengals, but don’t think the game will be as much of a shootout as Vegas is calling for.

Tier 1: Tyler Boyd (price is getting up there, border tier 2)
Tier 2: A.J. Green, Mixon
Darts: CIN D/ST
Punts: C.J. Uzomah

IND @ NYJ (-2.5) o/u 45.5

IND: The Colts are are coming off their mini bye week after playing last Thursday in New England. Now they get to travel again to New York to take on the Jets. The offense is banged up with T.Y. ruled out and Ebron dealing with multiple injuries. It looks like Ebron will be playing and he should be the number one target on offense with Chester Rogers and Hines helping out.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Ebron
Darts: Chester Rogers, Hines
Punts:

NYJ: The Jets are at home again this week after beating the Broncos and are a little beat up themselves. Keep an eye on Isaiah Crowell because if he sits then Powell becomes a solid play here.

Tier 1: Bilal Powell (if Crowell sits)
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

LAR @ DEN (+7) o/u 51.5

LAR: The Rams are looking like one of the best if not the best team in the league. They are headed to Denver to the altitude and what looks to be snow for Sunday. Denver has been getting ran all over and Todd Gurley should be able to do the same. Kupp and Cooks look like they will play, but I doubt they are 100% after being limited all week in practice.

Tier 1: Todd Gurley
Tier 2: Kupp, Cooks, Woods
Darts:
Punts:

DEN: Denver is happy to be coming home where at least they have been able to keep games competitive. Unfortunately they also get the Rams coming to town. The Rams D has been giving up points so there is still some chance of keeping it close if Keenan can move the ball.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Sanders, Thomas, Lindsay
Darts:
Punts:

JAX @ DAL (+3) o/u 40.5

JAX: What Jags team will we get this week? The low Vegas total has me disinterested in this game. Add that to the rising prices of the Jags players and it makes sense to look elsewhere for value. The one thing they have going for them is Sean Lee has been ruled out. That should open up the rushing attack for Yeldon.

Tier 1: Yeldon (he should get all the volume and with Lee out could be sneaky), JAX D/ST
Tier 2: Westbrook, Bortles, Cole
Darts:
Punts:

DAL: Not much to see here. They have no offense and now get to take on one of the best defenses in the league. Zeke’s price is down to 7k because of the matchup, and between him and Geoff Swaim there are no other plays here worth throwing darts at.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Zeke
Punts: Swaim

BAL @ TEN (+2.5) o/u 41.5

BAL: Baltimore just had a field goal competition in Cleveland last week and now head into Tennessee for another offensive struggle of a game versus the Titans. I expect this to be low-scoring and ugly on both sides.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Crabtree (cheap and getting the targets), John Brown
Punts:

TEN: Titans beat the defending champs one week, and then go lose to the Bills the next. They get the Ravens now back at home in what looks to be a game worth mostly avoiding.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Mariota, Corey Davis
Punts:

 

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