NBA DFS – 10/17/2018

Alright big slate today so again pay attention to news and updates as we get closer to lineup lock.

MEM @ IND(-6.5) o/u 207

MEM: Memphis is healthy again and should be exponentially better than they were last year. At the same time, they are in the West and may find themselves battling for a top pick rather than a playoff seed. Best matchups for Memphis this game looks to be at PG and in the post.

Tier 1: Conley, Gasol
Tier 2: Parsons (GPP), Kyle Anderson, Green, Jackson Jr.
Tier 3: Marshon Brooks

IND: The main man in Indy is going to be Oladipo once again. Against Memphis I avoid Centers for sure and then you can evaluate the rest of matchups from there. On paper nothing is too appealing outside of Oladipo.

Tier 1: Oladipo
Tier 2: Tyreke Evans, Thad Young
Tier 3: Bojan

MIL @ CHA(+2) o/u 217

MIL: The Bucks are one of the best teams in the East running behind one of the best players in the league in Giannis Antekounmpo. He’s priced way up to $10,900 to start the season which is hard to justify when AD is only $200 more. The other main targets on this team is Middleton and Bledsoe. Given the price points I’ll be looking for better value elsewhere.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Giannis, Middleton, Bledsoe
Tier 3: Brook Lopez, Malcom Brogdon

CHA: This team doesn’t have any superstar standouts in the slate, but they have a lot of decent mid-level players. This makes it harder to predict who is going to go off. My favorite target is Batum because he fills up the stat sheet in several categories. Jeremy Lamb has moved into the starting lineup for now and he should get plenty of looks on offense, but outside of points he doesn’t provide much else most nights.

Tier 1: MKG
Tier 2: Zeller, Batum, Kemba, Hernangomez, Marvin Williams
Tier 3: Monk

MIA @ ORL(+2.5) o/u 210

MIA: Miami is beat up right and dealing with several injuries. That opens up some decent value for their game in Orlando. Derrick Jones is only $3700 and will most likely get the start and be in for longer run than normal. He is a viable punt play at that price. Dragic, Richardson, and Whiteside all have plus matchups in my book for this game as well.

Tier 1: Whiteside, Derrick Jones
Tier 2: Dragic, Josh Richardson, Tyler Johnson
Tier 3: Wade

ORL: The Magic are surprisingly healthy now for the first time in a long time. It will take a few games to see how the rotations are looking and get a feel for this team. Right now it seems outside of Vucevic the rotations will be very fluid.

Tier 1: Vucevic
Tier 2: Aaron Gordon, Fournier, Augustin
Tier 3: Ross, Simmons

BKN @ DET(-5) o/u 212

BKN: Brooklyn was one of the fastest paced teams last year, and I would expect that trend to continue. Brooklyn is also pretty banged up right now with Carroll having surgery, Crabbe already ruled out, and Hollis-Jefferson trending toward missing the season opener himself. With the Pistons having a larger front court I would expect Ed Davis to get more run than usual and possibly some more Kenneth Faried. The play I am most intrigued about though is Caris LeVert, who can fill up the stat sheet and now may finally get upwards of 30 minutes as he cracked the starting lineup.

Tier 1: Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert
Tier 2: D’Angelo Russell, Ed Davis(if RHJ is ruled out)
Tier 3: Faried(if RHJ is ruled out)

DET: The Drummond/Griffin experiment continues in Detroit as the Pistons take on the Nets. If trends continue from last year, then you want to target players against this fast-paced Nets team. Drummond and BG are priced up enough to look elsewhere for value, but there guards can provide some salary relief. Main target from this side is going to Reggie Bullock who is only $3900. The faster pace should open up a few more opportunities for him in transition. On top of that, Stanley Johnson is questionable, and if he sits, Bullock will be a lock.

Tier 1: Drummond, Reggie Bullock
Tier 2: Ish Smith, Reggie Jackson, Blake Griffin, Glenn Robinson III(GPP dart)
Tier 3:

CLE @ TOR(-12) o/u 214

CLE: Kevin Love should get back to his T-Wolve numbers now that Lebron has left town. Unfortunately he starts off with what looks to be one of the best defensive teams this year. All the Cavs outside of Love are priced down accordingly, but are still considerably risky plays given the Raptors defense.

Tier 1: Kevin Love
Tier 2: Cedi Osman, Tristan Thompson
Tier 3: Nance

TOR: The Kawhi rental starts today. This Raptors team can now guard at every position and should be one of the best defensive units in the NBA this year. This game does have blowout potential so be weary. Jonas can score in limited minutes so while his price is fairly low he is worth a look.

Tier 1: Serge Ibaka
Tier 2: Kawhi Leonard, Jonas Valanciunas
Tier 3: OG

ATL @ NY(-3.5) o/u 215

ATL: Atlanta has a new face of the franchise after drafting Trae Young and shipping out Schroder. They look like they are going to be one of the worst teams in the league this year when everything is said and done. Still, today they should be competitive and for DFS purposes there is value to be had here.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Trae Young, Len, Prince
Tier 3: Lin

NY: Knicks are favored in this game which won’t happen often this year. If Enes is going to get consistent minutes this could be his best season yet. He doesn’t need many minutes to get his points and rebounds so even at $7200 he has some upside. Other than him there isn’t much to like from this Knicks team. Trey gets to go against Trae in a duel that features little to no defense. This pikes my interest a bit, but overall this team is underwhelming.

Tier 1: Enes Kanter
Tier 2: THJ, Trey Burke
Tier 3: Kevin Knox

NO @ HOU(-7.5) o/u 228

NO: Now we are getting to the fun stuff. The Vegas total of 228 is the highest on the board meaning we will want to have some exposure to this game. CP3 is a solid defender as well as Tucker so Elf and Moore/Mirotic get a bump down. Jrue fits the gameflow of this game and is firmly in play even with the elevated price point. The front court rotation of Randle/Mirotic/AD are all in play as well.

Tier 1: Jrue, AD, Randle, Mirotic
Tier 2: Moore, Darius Miller, Elfrid
Tier 3:

HOU: Welcome bench Melo to the defenseless Rockets everybody. Luckily, they didn’t bring him in to play defense. My guess is that Melo will be coming off the bench and if that poses true he is too pricey to even think about. Obviously the team is centered around Paul, Harden, and Capela. All 3 are solid plays; the hard part is picking the one that will end up being the best value.

Tier 1: Harden, Capela, CP3, Tucker
Tier 2: Michael Carter-Williams(GPP), Eric Gordon
Tier 3: Gerald Green

MIN @ SA(-3) o/u 210

MIN: Drama drama drama. The Jimmy Butler saga continues today as reports are that he is expected to play in the opener. If he ends up playing then he is too cheap to not consider. Also, you have to drop down Wiggins, KAT, and Teague with him taking more of the usage. Pay attention to news here in case of any minutes restriction.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Butler, Taj Gibson, KAT
Tier 3: Teague, Wiggins

SA: The Spurs just can’t catch a break from the injury bug. After losing Dejounte Murray and Derrick White for the forseeable future, the Spurs are now starting Bryn Forbes at the one. The injuries make him and Patty Mills viable options at a filler

Tier 1: Derozan (if Butler is out), LMA
Tier 2: Gasol, Forbes, Mills
Tier 3:

UTA @ SAC(+8.5) o/u 207

UTA: The Vegas point total of 207 says it all. The Kings and Jazz were both very slow-paced teams last year so this game may not be worth targeting at all. On top of that most of the Jazz players have been priced up accordingly so there isn’t as much value to be had in this one.

Tier 1: Joe Ingles
Tier 2: Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert, Crowder
Tier 3:

SAC: Until we figure out rotations for the Kings this year it will be risky to use too many plays from Sac town. With the Jazz coming into town they have gotten priced down enough at least to where some players may still be able to reach value.

Tier 1: Willie Cauley-Stein
Tier 2: Hield, Giles, Yogi
Tier 3:

DEN @ LAC(+1) o/u 226

DEN: Another high scoring affair we will need to have some exposure to. The Denver guards of Murray and Harris are priced too high for the matchups they face in Beverly and Bradley so I will be passing on them. The best looking play from the starters as far as value goes is Millsap.

Tier 1: Paul Millsap
Tier 2: Lyles, Will Barton, Jokic, Plumlee
Tier 3: Monte Morris, Malik Beasley

LAC: If the preseason was any indication, it looks like the offense is set to run through Tobias with a side of Danilo. Both are great plays and seem underpriced here. They are the only clear cut plays with solid roles carved out. The front court is muddy with Harell and Gortat splitting time, and Boban dominating the Nuggets in the past. Then they have a plethora of guards that are all healthy to muddy up that area. Out of the guards, Beverly stands out the most to me.

Tier 1: Patrick Beverly, Tobias Harris, Gallinari
Tier 2: Harrell, Lou Williams(GPP)
Tier 3: Boban(GPP), Gortat

DAL @ PHO(-1.5) o/u 215

DAL: Last but not least we get to the Mavs and Suns which Vegas is predicting to be a close one. Mavs are going to be fairly short-handed, and for that matter the salaries of Dennis, Luka, and Deandre were bumped way up. They are still tempting and need to be considered with the usage bump and the fact that they are playing the Suns.

Tier 1: J.J. Barea
Tier 2: Dennis Smith Jr, Luka, Deandre Jordan
Tier 3: Wes Matthews, Maxi

PHO: If preseason means anything Phoenix will be running a lot of the offense through Ariza and Ayton. Now preseason is preseason and on top of that Booker didn’t play so his presence in the rotation changes how the usage will be split. I think he will be limited somewhat too so be sure to check the news to see if there is any word of a minutes restriction.

Tier 1: Ayton, Ariza
Tier 2: Josh Jackson, Warren
Tier 3: Booker

 

 

Good talk and good luck.

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