Sorry for the late post, but I still wanted to get something out there to help breakdown the 3 game slate today.
CHI @ PHI (-12.5) o/u 220
CHI: Dunn is out for this one so that bumps Payne into the starting 5. At $3600 he is hard to not play. Portis and Carter are starting this one and get a bump, but who knows how many each of them will play. I like Portis’ matchup a lot more against Saric compared to Wendell going up against Joel.
Tier 1: Payne, Portis, Holiday
Tier 2: Wendell, Lavine, Parker
Tier 3: Blakeney
PHI: The only concern I have for the Philly plays is the potential blowout. The Bulls are bad defensively and have no one to matchup with Embiid or Simmons. Gotta also go back to Saric here. Yeah he disappointed last game with the quick fouls, but he should bounce back here and now be lower-owned. Fultz and Cov should have a few more opportunities themselves as well tonight.
Tier 1: Embiid, Simmons, Saric
Tier 2: Fultz, Covington
Tier 3: McConnell
MIA @ WAS (-5.5) o/u 215
MIA: The Heat are banged up still after just playing in Orlando and starting the season with a loss. Whiteside played around 34 mins and if we can those minutes again tonight he is a great play. I don’t think Miami should be resting players this early in the season, but we’ll see. Also, Dwight was ruled out so that only adds to his appeal.
Tier 1: Whiteside, Josh Richardson
Tier 2: Dragic
Tier 3: Derrick Jones
WAS: Wizards open up at home tonight without their starting center of Dwight Howard. Wall and Beal should dominate usage tonight and are both great plays. Outside of them I am not too interested in the Wizards. I never play Porter if both Beal and Wall are healthy so if he goes off so be it.
Tier 1: Beal, Wall
Tier 2: Mahinmi
Tier 3: Morris
LAL @ POR (-3) o/u 224
LAL: The King is now in the Purple and Gold and looks to end the 15 game losing streak the Lakers have against Portland. This game should stay competitive which means you should load up on Lebron. Rondo is getting the start over Ball, but I would suspect both of them to play around the 25 minute mark. At the 2 it will probably be a time share with Hart and KCP. Ingram and Lebron are the only 2 players I can safely project for 30+ minutes. We’ll see how Walton works his rotation tonight.
Tier 1: Lebron
Tier 2: Ball, Ingram, Rondo, Javale
Tier 3: Hart
POR: Portland is a little easier to breakdown as their starting 5 didn’t get a facelift this offseason. Lillard is the focal point for this offense and is priced fair for the pace of this game. His wingman McCollum is more a secondary play with his matchup and price point. Nurkic is a bit risky with his inconsistent minutes in the past. If he gets 30 he could be the difference maker in the slate, but probably only needs 25 minutes to reach value.
Tier 1: Lillard, Nurkic (GPP), Aminu
Tier 2: McCollum
Tier 3: Stauskas
Good talk and good luck