DFS Week 7 – 10/21/18

Week 7 here we go…. bye week for the Packers, Raiders, Steelers, and Seahawks. Sticking with the main slate on DK so the London game between Titans and Chargers is not on here as well.

Tier 1: Borderline lock plays with a decent chance to be consistent and reach value.
Tier 2: Step below the above.
Darts: High risk high reward players that should be lower-owned
Punts: Value option that has an increased role or a decent matchup to consider.

CLE @ TB (-3.5) o/u 52.5

CLE: Cleveland is going to have to put up some points to stay in this one. Chalk of the week is going to be Nick Chubb after Hyde was traded to the Jaguars earlier this week. Duke is worth a look too. The receiving core is also short handed so bump up Landry, Njoku, and Callaway even for a dart.

Tier 1: Nick Chubb, Duke Johnson, Njoku
Tier 2: Landry, Baker
Darts: Callaway
Punts:

TB: Tampa has a lot of weapons on offense and are put to good use with their defense unable to stop anybody. Both Evans and Godwin have big play ability so I give Godwin a notch higher since he’s cheaper. Evans is a beast and shouldn’t have trouble against Ward if they try to shadow him. Howard at TE is back healthy now so he’s in play as well.

Tier 1: Evans, Jameis, Godwin
Tier 2: Howard, Jackson
Darts:
Punts:

CAR @ PHI (-5) o/u 45

CAR: I feel like I say the same thing every week about the Panthers. They are still getting a majority of the offense from Cam and Christian. Other than that I don’t have much interest in them on the road in Philly.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

PHI: Wentz steps up at home and is fairly cheap at 6k. Alshon and Ertz are getting the majority of the looks on offense and are fairly priced right now. Stacking one of them with Wentz may not be a terrible strategy.

Tier 1:  Wentz, Ertz
Tier 2: Alshon
Darts:
Punts:

MIN @ NYJ (+3.5) o/u 46

MIN: Minnesota has struggled against weak teams already this season and even though the Jets aren’t as weak as the others, they have played like it a couple weeks. The brightest spot on this offense is Theilen who has absolutely been a monster through the first 6 weeks. Hard to fade him at this point. No Cook in this one means Murray is back at the helm.

Tier 1: Theilen, Diggs
Tier 2: Cousins, Murray
Darts:
Punts:

NYJ: Not sure what Jets team we will get this week. Fading until further notice.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

DET @ MIA (+3) o/u 46.5

DET: Kerryon at $4500 is intriguing to me. All of the receiving core is fairly priced, but none stand out as superior options to the others.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Kerryon, Tate, Golladay
Darts:
Punts:

MIA: Miami put up a lot of points last week, but I think that was a fluke. Albert Wilson is cheap and will probably come back down to Earth, but he has the most upside in this one and could pay off his price tag still. Gore is a cheap RB punt play if you need one.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Albert Wilson
Darts: Drake
Punts: Frank Gore

NE @ CHI (+3) o/u 49

NE: New England looks like they will be without Gronk in this one. Still they are favored on the road. All the receivers get a slight bump. Still no one stands out as an elite play imo and better value is to be found.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Edelman, Brady, Hogan, White
Darts:
Punts:

CHI: Tarik Cohen has taken on a larger role in the passing attack in the recent weeks. I like him at this price point in a game that the Bears may get behind in and have to throw more. Trubisky is cheap and viable here as well for the same reason.

Tier 1: Trubisky, Tarik
Tier 2: Gabriel
Darts:
Punts:

BUF @ IND (-7) o/u 43

BUF: Buffalo is starting Derek Anderson after being on the team for 8 days. He’s cheap so I guess could be worth a dart throw. Still fading this team for now.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Derek Anderson
Punts:

IND: Colts are another team that hasn’t figured out how to be consistent yet. Ebron is the only option worth thinking about on offense. Colts defense should be a solid play here as well.

Tier 1: IND D/ST
Tier 2: Ebron
Darts:
Punts:

HOU @ JAX (-4) o/u 41.5

HOU: Watson and this offense has not looked the greatest. The Cowboys did just beat down the Jags so there is some hope for the offense in this one. Watson is cheap, but is nothing more than a GPP dart throw in this one. Hopkins will probably get shadowed by Ramsey, but he’s also relatively cheap so can be considered. Coutee is cheap and should draw easier coverage in this one if you want to pivot off Hopkins or get any exposure to this one.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Coutee, Hopkins
Darts: Watson, Fuller
Punts:

JAX: Bortles is very inconsistent, but at home he plays a bit better. $5200 is a fair price here for him. The other plays here are all meh to me. I am uninterested until we can see some consistency.

Tier 1: Bortles, JAX D/ST
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

NO @ BAL (-2.5) o/u 49

NO: This is going to be a tough one for the Saints I suspect. On the road and outdoors are not where Brees plays his best. Brees has been priced down to account for these things, but this whole offense is on fade for me this week.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Thomas
Darts:
Punts:

BAL: The Saints have struggled to defend this season and this game it shouldn’t be any different. John Brown and Snead going against his old team are higher to me on this one compared to Crabtree. I think Lattimore will guard him and slow him down some.

Tier 1: Snead, John Brown, Flacco
Tier 2: Crabtree
Darts: Hurst
Punts:

DAL @ WAS (+1) o/u 41.5

DAL: Zeke or bust here. He’s the only play worth considering in my book.

Tier 1: Zeke
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

WAS: The offense is banged up and the Cowboys are no slouch on defense. Not interested in anyone here. Bibbs could be a dart throw if Chris Thompson gets ruled out.

Tier 1: 
Tier 2:
Darts: Bibbs (if Thomson is out)
Punts:

LAR @ SF (+10) o/u 52

LAR: No Cupp here in this one so Woods and Cooks get a bump for that reason. Gurley is expensive but still elite and needs exposure to. The niners should be able to put up points at home and keep this close.

Tier 1: Gurley
Tier 2: Goff, Woods, Cooks
Darts:
Punts:

SF: The Rams defense has not been as solid as we all expected them to be since Aqib went down. The Niners being at home should be able to put some points on the board. They will be throwing a lot and at there is definite value here.

Tier 1: Beathard
Tier 2: Garcon, Kittle
Darts: Goodwin
Punts:

 

 

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