NBA DFS – 10/21/2018

Sunday is no longer just for football. We have a 4 game slate so let’s break it down real quick.

ATL @ CLE (-7.5) o/u 230

ATL: Trae Young hurt his elbow, but is probable to play today. He gets his shots and usage and he should be able to hang with the slower George Hill. In DFS FG% doesn’t matter so I don’t hate the play. Taurean Prince is the other Hawk coming out the gates strong this year.

Tier 1: Taurean Prince
Tier 2: Trae Young
Tier 3: Bazemore, Lin, Bembry

CLE: Love is a lock here. He hasn’t been shooting well, but still is showing his solid floor. Cedi has been playing great and fills up the stat sheet. For that reason I like the play here as well even though Taurean is a solid defender.

Tier 1: Love, Cedi
Tier 2: Tristan (if Nance is out)
Tier 3:

SAC @ OKC (-10) o/u 215.5

SAC: The only players you can count to get consistent minutes on the Kings is Fox, WCS, and Hield after 2 games. Targeting point guards against OKC is not a bad thing as Schroder doesn’t play defense and Russ if he’s back will be limited/isn’t known for his lockdown defense either. Hard to trust WCS against Adams here. Hield has had good history against the Thunder and is worth a look.

Tier 1: Fox
Tier 2: Hield, WCS, Bagley (GPP)
Tier 3: Bjelica

OKC: Westbrook is trending in the right direction to return to the court today. With him back Schroder is GPP dart and PG gets a slight bump down. I would suspect a minutes restriction if he comes back so pay attention to the news for that. Adams looks good and should be able to continue rolling against the Kings frontcourt.

Tier 1: Adams
Tier 2: Schroder (GPP), PG
Tier 3: Noel

GS @ DEN (+4.5) o/u 228.5

GS: Warriors are looking solid as always. On the road in Denver is not an easy place to play, but at they do get the Nuggets on their second game of a back to back. Denver has no one to match up with KD here. They lost Wilson Chandler who used to slow him down a bit, but now with him gone and Barton hurt, Torrey Craig will be matching up. Curry has a great matchup too against Jamal Murray defense, but I like KD a bit more if you have to choose.

Tier 1: Curry, KD
Tier 2: Draymond
Tier 3: Damian Jones

DEN: So the Joker put up 82 DK fpts last night after I said I’m taking a wait and see approach. He should regress a bit here on the second night of the back to back, but the Warriors also have no one to guard him. The combo of Jones, Looney, and Bell is not a match for him. He will be highly owned after that performance so you could pivot to Millsap if you want to be contrarian. With Barton out Harris and Murray get a bump up as well, but neither jump off as must plays.

Tier 1: Jokic
Tier 2: Millsap, Murray, Harris
Tier 3: Craig, Lyles

HOU @ LAC (-1) o/u 223.5

HOU: Houston will most likely be without Chris Paul this game after the scuffle with Rondo last night. That means Harden will have the ball in his hands a lot more. Eric Gordon should move into the starting lineup and will be very chalky. Michael Carter-Williams could get an extra bump in minutes as well. Gerald Green is a sneaky play off the bench who will get more run now as well. Capela could be a good play if Gortat/Boban are in the game with him being the only big.

Tier 1: Harden, Capela, Green (GPP)
Tier 2: Ennis, Tucker, MCW, Gordon, Melo
Tier 3:

LAC: Clippers will need some extra offense to keep up with the Rockets here. Gallo and Harris are the main contributors on that end with Lou Will off the bench. I like all 3 of them here. Beverley against his old team is worth a look. Another sneaky play is Harrell. He may get some more run with Boban not being able to guard the pick n roll.

Tier 1: Harris, Gallinari, Lou Will
Tier 2: Beverley, Harrell (GPP)
Tier 3: Boban, Gortat

 

Good talk and good luck

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