NBA DFS – 10/22/2018

Sorry for the late post. 9 games this Monday. I’ll get the early ones out the way. If you are building lineups just make sure you have players with late start times and we can adjust on the fly. In this slate the two 4:30 PM PST games are not very desirable and I won’t have much exposure (MKG and Kawhi are my favorite plays out of those games). Let’s get it.

ORL @ BOS (-12) o/u 212

ORL: Orlando looks they may be subject to a lot of blowouts this year. If they can keep it close there is value to be had, but if it goes the way Vegas is suspecting, we want to have less exposure to their core players. I know they kept it close against Philly the other night even with the large spread, but Boston is a lot deeper than Philly and you can’t count on Vooch having another triple double. I mean you can, but I’m not.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Tier 3: Vooch, Fournier, Ross

BOS: With Boston having so many viable options and such a deep bench, we could see the starters end up with only around 30 minutes most nights. Against Orlando with the imminent blowout I will be staying away from them.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Tier 3: Rozier, Morris, Smart

CHA @ TOR (-9.5) o/u 223

CHA: Kemba is on roll right now and his price is on the rise. Lowry is a tough defender, and Kemba is on the road for this one, so that lowers my appeal. Still, he should be a solid cash play and until someone else steps up for this offense he will need some consideration. Only other play I am considering is MKG at $3700. He is cheap and gets enough peripheral stats to reach value at that price tag even in limited minutes.

Tier 1: MKG
Tier 2: Kemba
Tier 3: Monk (GPP)

TOR: Kawhi is up to $8800 and I think it will keep going up. He fills up the stat sheet and is isn’t reliant on any one category. I like him here against the smaller frontcourt where he can get a few more rebounds. Lowry is also in play against Kemba, and he gets a bump from playing at home. Keep paying attention to the starters for Nurse as he’s playing the matchups. I don’t think Jonas will get the start here, but if or when he eventually does he’ll be a good play.

Tier 1: Kawhi 
Tier 2: Siakam, Serge, Danny Green, Lowry, VanVleet
Tier 3: Jonas

NY @ MIL (-11) o/u 226

NY: Kanter is still cheap and still getting minutes. I like him again today against Brook Lopez even though Lopez likes to stay outside the key. Knox is out for this one so that gives some more minutes to Hezonja, Lance Thomas, and maybe even Vonleh. None are great play as I can’t see them getting over 25 minutes. Burke and Hardaway are streaky and more 2nd tier in what could be a blowout.

Tier 1: Kanter
Tier 2: Hardaway, Burke
Tier 3: Vonleh, Trier, Ntilikina

MIL: Surprisingly enough, no one on the Bucks stand out as great plays. All are overpriced on this slate. Giannis at 11.1k does have a high ceiling, but the blowout risk scares me off that. Not enough value to justify that.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Bledsoe, Middleton, Giannis, Ersan
Tier 3:

IND @ MIN (-2.5) o/u 225

IND: If Wiggins is guarding Dipo then yes please. Playing centers against KAT is a thing, but with the return of Sabonis to the lineup it lowers my appeal of Turner.

Tier 1: Oladipo
Tier 2:
Tier 3:

MIN: Butler is back so every one else gets a bump down. Sad, but true. At 8k he is worth a look here in what should be a close game. Rose is the other intriguing play. He went off against Dallas and now is up to 4.4k. Not bad, but again with Butler my appeal is lower.

Tier 1: Butler
Tier 2: Rose (GPP)
Tier 3:

CHI @ DAL (-5) o/u 230

CHI: Dunn returns so we will see a new rotation now. Payne and Blakeney should still get some run, but they are off my radar now until we see how Hoiberg manages the minutes. Lavine is too expensive for me with Dunn back taking some of the ball-handling and usage away. Holiday should still get enough minutes to reach value here. Wendell keeps getting cheaper, but still not enough minutes for me outside a GPP dart.

Tier 1: Dunn (GPP), Portis
Tier 2: Holiday, Lavine, Jabari
Tier 3: Wendell (GPP)

DAL: Deandre got priced way up for this one so I’m staying away and looking for value elsewhere. Doncic looked good as well against Minny and only got bumped by $200 and is definitely in play. Dennis hard to trust with JJ playing well off the bench and Luka taking some minutes of his at the point.

Tier 1: Doncic, Barea
Tier 2: Matthews
Tier 3:

MEM @ UTA (-10.5) o/u 219

MEM: Jamychal Green is out with a broken jaw giving way to the rook JJJ to take over at the 4. If it wasn’t against the Jazz I wouldn’t think twice about locking him in my lineups. Still think he has a solid matchup against Favors regardless. Kyle Anderson is a game time decision and could open up minutes for Marshon if he sits. Gasol is a good play here too as he always brings it against Gobert.

Tier 1: JJJ, Gasol
Tier 2: Marshon (GPP if Kyle is out)
Tier 3:

UTA: Utah will try to bounce back here after losing to a Jerebko game winner. Ingles has been going off and should be priced higher than he is. Very playable at $6400. Mitchell is too pricey for me, but he can go off any night. Rubio looks like a solid play at 6.1k as well, but there are a lot of good guards tonight.

Tier 1: Ingles
Tier 2: Rubio
Tier 3:

WAS @ POR (-5) o/u 226

WAS: Wall is priced up and rightfully so. He is more of a GPP look for me because of the price tag. Beal played well last game and is worth a look as well, and he gets a solid matchup with McCollum. There is better value to be had though.

Tier 1: Wall (GPP)
Tier 2:
Tier 3:

POR: Dame should be locked into this game against another talented backcourt. If Nurk got consistent minutes he’d be a lock here, but with no Howard on the other end, he’ll probably not get enough to be viable. His usage has been huge when he’s on the court, so if you want to drop him into a GPP I don’t blame you.

Tier 1: Damian Lillard
Tier 2: Nurkic (GPP), Aminu, Zach Collins
Tier 3: McCollum

SA @ LAL (-1) o/u 224

SA: Pau always goes off in LA and is worth a shot in a GPP. Derozan and LMA will handle the rest of the offensive work with maybe a little Gay sighting. All are viable in what will be a pace up game for them.

Tier 1: Derozan, Pau (GPP), LMA
Tier 2: Gay, Mills, Forbes
Tier 3:

LAL: Lakers are shorthanded and get a tough one point spread against the Spurs. Ball has a great matchup and is one of my favorite plays on the slate. At $5500 he should reach value. Lance is cheap at only 3.8k and should see his fair share of minutes and usage go up as well along with Kuzma. Zubac may actually get some run here to try and guard the bigs of San Antonio. Kuzma and McGee can’t play the whole night, and Beasley is undersized himself. Lots of value here.

Tier 1: Lebron, Ball, KCP, Lance, Hart, McGee
Tier 2: Kuzma, Beasley (GPP)
Tier 3: Zubac (GPP)

PHO @ GS (-13) o/u 228.5

PHO: Canaan has been seeing solid minutes at the PG spot and is only $4300 if you want to punt. Ayton should bounce back here against Jones. Much easier matchup than Jokic tonight. Booker is streaky and I don’t like him at this price against Klay’s D.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Ayton, Canaan
Tier 3: Booker

GS: Warriors are in a great matchup here if the game can stay close. Klay is cheap and this could be a game where he gets going. KD will have Ariza bugging him on defense so I don’t like him as much as Curry. Draymond is an interesting play as well against Anderson.

Tier 1: Klay (GPP), Curry
Tier 2: KD, Draymond, Jones
Tier 3:

 

Good talk and good luck

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