Smaller slate today with only 3 games. Let’s break it down.
PHI @ DET (-1) o/u 215.5
PHI: Simmons only played 8 minutes minutes last game because of back tightness. If he can’t play or is limited it will open up a lot of value for us. Regardless if he plays or not, Embiid will be one of the top plays on the board. Everyone else is TBD until we hear if Simmons is playing. He did miss shoot around this morning and is now considered doubtful to play. The Vegas line suggests that as well so off that Saric, McConnell, JJ, Amir, Fultz, Cov, and Shamet all get a bump. **update** Simmons is out
Tier 1: Embiid, McConnell, Redick, Saric
Tier 2: Fultz, Cov, Amir (GPP), Shamet
DET: Drummond was questionable, but now is active and will suit up for this game. Blake is coming off a great game and is priced up to $9000 for this matchup. He gets Saric who he should be to handle and with Drummond playing could be less owned. Reggie and Ish are both in decent spots here, but I like Ish more just because his price.
Tier 1: Ish, BG
Tier 2: Drummond, Bullock
Tier 3: Zaza, Johnson
LAC @ NO (-6.5) o/u 237
LAC: This game stands out as the one to target of the 3 if Simmons and Drummond play above. If they are out we will need to mix in some value from that game. This should be a high scoring affair as both teams will get points. Lou Will is do for a good shooting night. Boban probably won’t play that much in this one either against AD and company, so look for Harrell here. Shai and Beverly are cheap. Tobias and Gallo have decent matchups here as well against the undersized Moore and Mirotic.
Tier 1: Gallinari, Tobias Harris, Lou Will (GPP), Harrell (more for GPP)
Tier 2: Beverley, Shai
NO: New Orleans looks great after two games. Mirotic has been on fire while Randle has been dominating off the bench with in limited time. Add that to AD and Jrue and what else do you need? I am riding the Mirotic wave as he gets either Tobias or Gallinari defending him this game. Elfrid hasn’t been receiving consistent minutes so I will wait and see if he can carve out a bigger role before I pay up in the 5k range.
Tier 1: Mirotic, AD, Randle
Tier 2: Jrue, Moore, Elfrid
SAC @ DEN (-11) o/u 227.5
SAC: Sac actually looked competent the other night as they beat the Thunder in OKC. Now they go over to Denver in what’s going to be a tough game. I am tempted to fade entirely due to the travel and roadtrip. Jokic is tough to stop and he may pull what he did against the Suns so be wary. Fox has the best matchup of all the Kings especially if Jamal plays banged up.
Tier 1: Fox, Bjelica (GPP)
Tier 2: WCS
Tier 3: Bagley
DEN: Denver will be without Will for 5-6 weeks as he recovers from hip surgery. Jokic is in a great spot here and is probably the best value out of the high priced centers. Gary Harris is also in a prime spot with Barton out. Looks like Murray will play today, but just in case he sits, Monte Morris needs to be on our radar. He could be a nice GPP dart with Murray most likely somewhat limited even if he does play.
Tier 1: Harris, Jokic
Tier 2: Morris (GPP), Craig (GPP)
Tier 3: Juancho, Lyles