NBA DFS – 10/24/2018

The season is ramping up a bit as we get a huge 11 game slate today. In these large slates I like to focus on a few games and stack up on those while adding in value that opens up from others. There should be plenty to come by with 11 games. I’ll be going over more games throughout the day, but let’s jump into these early games to start.

BKN @ CLE (-3) o/u 229

BKN: Cleveland has been one of the teams to target since they don’t play much defense. Hollis-Jefferson is back in the lineup after having a kid and missing the first 3 games. He should push Crabbe to the bench. D’Angelo is a GPP play only with him sharing/losing minutes to Dinwiddie each night. Now that they are getting back to full strength there aren’t as many minutes to go around to all their players. I think Jarrett Allen should get back to 30 minutes in this one after the blowout last game. Other than him LeVert looks like a solid play, but again hard to project him for much more than 30 minutes and his price is up to $6800. With 11 games we should be able to get better value elsewhere.

Tier 1: Allen
Tier 2: Russell (GPP), RHJ, Joe Harris, LeVert
Tier 3: Dinwiddie, Ed Davis

CLE: In what should be a close game Love is a solid play. He still hasn’t shot well, and when he does you’ll need to have had him in your lineup. Cedi is the only other play I’m interested here in. Sure last game he burned us a bit, but you have to go back to the well for $5800.

Tier 1: Cedi, Love
Tier 2: Clarkson (GPP)
Tier 3:

DAL @ ATL (+1.5) o/u 234

DAL: I like targeting Trae Young defense so Dennis Smith is in play, but more for GPP because his minutes are inconsistent. Barea off the bench is a good pivot from him to still get exposure to the defensive liability of Young. Jordan has a solid floor, but at 8k there is probably more value to be had. Doncic looks like he could be a triple double threat each night as well.

Tier 1: Barea
Tier 2: Jordan, Doncic, Matthews, Dennis (GPP)
Tier 3:

ATL: Trae Young is going to be a target in games that will stay close. He commands so much usage while he is on the court it bumps his ceiling way up as we saw last game. Alex Len is a GTD, and if he can’t go Dedmon needs a look. He is just returning to the lineup so there could be a minutes restriction in place so keep a look out for news on that.

Tier 1: Trae Young, Prince
Tier 2: Dedmon (GPP), Bazemore
Tier 3: Bembry

MIN @ TOR (-8) o/u 226.5
MIN: Not much for me to like from this team right now from Minny especially on an eleven game slate. Toronto is one of the best defending teams out there on top of it. Okogie got some extra run last game with Wiggins leaving the game early. If Wiggins sits then Okokie and Rose could get a bump.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Taj, Rose, Okogie (if Wiggins is out)
Tier 3: Butler
TOR: Jonas put 40 DK fantasy points last game in only 20 minutes off the bench. He could get the start here against the bigger frontcourt, and if he does I like him at $5600. The blowout potential does limit the upside here of all the Toronto plays though.

Tier 1: Leonard (more of a cash play), Lowry, Jonas
Tier 2: Green
Tier 3:
NY @ MIA (-8) o/u 224

NY: Kanter is in play here once again. Whiteside is a good shot blocker, but he’s not the greatest defender. Hardaway and Dotson look like the other targets here to consider as well. Hezonja did play 30 minutes off the bench in the loss to the Bucks last game. Consistent minutes are hard to predict for this team so buyer beware.

Tier 1: Kanter, Dotson (GPP punt)
Tier 2: Hardaway, Burke, Hezonja (GPP)
Tier 3:

MIA: This game comes down to minutes. If Whiteside gets in the 30 minute range he could be a great value against Kanter. With his minutes varying each night he is hard to trust. This team could be thin so check injury news to confirm who’s in and out. McGruder has been on a roll the last couple games and is still under 5k. Not bad for the ceiling he has shown recently.

Tier 1: McGruder
Tier 2: Wade, Richardson, Dragic
Tier 3: Whiteside

CHA @ CHI (+3) o/u 231
CHA: Kemba is still rolling. With the close spread he should get his full allotment of minutes. Dunn is out after coming back for one game so he gets Payne matched up with him. Batum is cheap here, but hasn’t been doing a whole lot. MKG should get more run in this game then he did against Toronto so give him a look again since he’s cheap if you need a filler/punt play.

Tier 1: Kemba
Tier 2: Batum, MKG
Tier 3:

CHI: Chicago is without Dunn now for the forseeable future. Payne and Arcidiacono will get a bump now. Blakeney fell out of favor a bit, but now should be getting a few extra minutes as well. He’s a volume scorer and still has the highest ceiling of the 3 backup guards with also the lowest floor. Lavine continues to score the ball efficiently and without Dunn gets more usage back. We also saw Wendell get minutes into the 30s so he’s worth a look now at 4k. If the minutes are there again tonight he could easily reach value.

Tier 1: Lavine, Arcidiacono, Portis
Tier 2: Blakeney (GPP), Wendell, Payne, Jabari (GPP), Holiday
Tier 3:

UTA @ HOU (-2.5) o/u 220

UTA: Jingles all the way. He is one of my favorite plays today and gets a pace up match with the Rockets. No CP3 means you have to look at Rubio, especially with his price at only 5.6k. Gobert may not see as many minutes if this game goes small ball. Mitchell is still too pricey for me right now, but still has a high ceiling.

Tier 1: Jingles, Crowder
Tier 2: Mitchell, Rubio
Tier 3: Burks (GPP)

HOU: This is a pace down game for the Rockets a bit. Paul is out again with a suspension so Eric Gordon gets a nice bump and is still fairly cheap at $5800. Harden is expensive, but if you can fit him in your lineup more power to you.

Tier 1: Gordon 
Tier 2: Capela, Harden, GG, Tucker
Tier 3:

IND @ SA (-2.5) o/u 213

IND: This is one of the lower scoring games on the slate and one I will not be targeting. Evans finally got a price drop so you could fire him up in a GPP if you wanted. Other than that Dipo is in play as a GPP option, but I would avoid this game mostly.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Dipo (GPP), Evans (GPP)
Tier 3:

SA: LMA and Derozan went off against LA but now are in a more grind out game. Still they can be played here as they are the team for the most part. Their prices are up now and they could have some tired legs from the OT game so they are more Tier 2 plays in my book.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Derozan, LMA, Pau (GPP)
Tier 3:

PHI @ MIL (-6) o/u 227.5

PHI: Simmons plans on playing, but I haven’t heard any official word yet on if the team will let him or not. Keep an eye out because they changes the complexity of the team greatly. Embiid is in a good spot regardless. Lopez and company will not be able to guard him at Center. The Bucks may have to try putting Giannis on him, but I don’t think they want to get their star player in foul trouble. Everyone gets a bump if Simmons sits. The tiers below are if he is playing.

Tier 1: Embiid
Tier 2: Redick, Saric, Cov
Tier 3: McConnell, Fultz

MIL: Saric just got torched by Blake last night and gets to wash that down with some Giannis. If you want to pay up for someone he should be your guy. Philly is going to have to mix and match to try and stop the Greek Freak tonight. Middleton and Bledsoe are solid plays as well. Simmons is actually a solid defender if he plays so that worries me a bit, but he shouldn’t slow down Giannis much.

Tier 1: Giannis, Bledsoe
Tier 2: Middleton
Tier 3: Lopez

LAL @ PHO (+2.5) o/u 237

LAL: The Lakers have one of the worst defenses and highest paces in the NBA right now. With BI and Rondo still suspended there is definite value to be had here again. Ball, Kuzma, Hart, KCP (GPP), Ball all get a bump. They are more expensive tonight, but still need to be considered.

Tier 1: Ball, Kuzma, Hart, McGee, Lebron
Tier 2: KCP (GPP), Stephenson
Tier 3:

PHO: Suns look to be in a good spot tonight in a pace up game with the defenseless Lakers. Booker has been locked in since returning from injury and should be licking his lips for this matchup. All the Suns get a bump up here and will probably be highly owned.

Tier 1: Booker, Ayton, Warren
Tier 2: Canaan, Ariza, Jackson (GPP)
Tier 3:

MEM @ SAC (+3) o/u 220.5

MEM: JJJ is still cheap and should see close to 30 minutes. They will need his size against the bigger frontcourt of the Kings. Gasol and Conley are very solid plays. I like Conley a little more here, but centers have been doing well against the Kings so far this year.

Tier 1: JJJ, Conley, Gasol
Tier 2: Temple (GPP)
Tier 3:

SAC: The Kings came back to Earth against the Nuggets last game. Their two best players are Fox and WCS, and they have the worst matchups against Conley and Gasol who are good defenders. Look for other players to step up in order to keep this one close.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: WCS (GPP), Hield, Fox, Bjelica
Tier 3:

WAS @ GS (-10) o/u 236

WAS: John Wall has a great matchup against Steph to the point it wouldn’t surprise me to see Klay switch onto him. Beal seems too pricey for me in a potential let down spot. Otto has a had solid history against GS and is worth a look in GPPs. Morris should get more minutes with the small ball lineups running most the game. Oubre could get some more minutes as well if they have Morris at center for some of the game.

Tier 1: Wall, Otto (GPP)
Tier 2: Beal, Morris, Oubre
Tier 3:

GS: The Warriors should get a full workload here. Out of the big 4 I like Draymond the most. KD and Steph are also under 10k which is a rare sight. I like KDs matchup more over Stephs. Jones is a punt play at center and if you want a dart you can always try throwing Jerebko

Tier 1: Draymond, KD
Tier 2: Steph, Klay, Jones
Tier 3: Jerebko (GPP)

 

Good talk and good luck

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