NBA DFS – 10/25/2018

4 game slate here on this Friday eve. You win some you learn some. Last night I learned a lot so let’s win some today.

POR @ ORL (+3) o/u 218

POR: Lillard vs Augustin at PG, yeah I like that matchup. With Vooch the main contributor for Orlando I also really like Nurkic in this one because you can safely project him for 30+ mins (barring foul trouble of course). McCollum is getting minutes, just hasn’t produced yet. At $6100 this could be a bounceback spot for him. Aminu should get all the minutes he can handle to match up with the lengthy athletic forwards of Isaac and Gordon. For the bench I’m not super interested in anyone, but if you want some value, Stauskas looks the best. At the same time his production is very scoring reliant.

Tier 1: Lillard, Nurkic, Aminu
Tier 2: McCollum, Stauskas
Tier 3: Turner

ORL: The Magic have surprised in the last couple games against good teams and double digit spreads. Now that they are in a projected close game it will probably be a blowout… Vooch has to be in consideration as he’s heating up and should continue to get minutes if Orlando wants to stay competitive. I like targeting guards against Lillard and McCollum as they don’t focus too much on defense. Augustin has played 30+ minutes in the last two so could be a nice punt play at PG if you want to pay down. My favorite play in this game is at the other guard spot in Evan Fournier. His minutes were down in the first two because of fouls and a blowout. He is a borderline must play at only $5600 in this one.

Tier 1: Fournier, Augustin, Vooch
Tier 2: Gordon, Isaac
Tier 3: Ross

CLE @ DET (-7) o/u 223

CLE: Cleveland is on the second game of their back to back in this one. They got smoked at home against the Nets yesterday. Tristan could get extra run in this one to match up with Drummond. Love gets the matchup with Blake and he should bring his best as they try to prove they are better than each other. Love always needs to have some consideration since he is the man now in Cleveland. Cedi has burned me the last 2 games after the hot start and his price went up $100 on DK. He should be lower-owned because of his recent games which means it may be worth it to go back to him again.

Tier 1: Love, TT
Tier 2: Cedi
Tier 3:

DET: The Pistons hung on behind the 50 burger of Blake’s to get the win against Philly. Now they get the Cavs who haven’t figured out how to play any sort of defense yet. Ish, Bullock, and Jackson are all fairly priced, but don’t jump out as must plays. Blake has won the recent matches when he’s faced off against Love. He should be in play here once again. The blowout potential does worry me here so they aren’t my favorite plays.

Tier 1: Ish
Tier 2: Blake Griffin, Drummond, Reggie, Bullock
Tier 3:

BOS @ OKC (-1.5) o/u 212

BOS: Another example of targeting good guards is here with Russ and OKC. Kyrie will step up for this match and is firmly in play. I tend to avoid playing centers against Adams so Horford gets a bump down here. PG will probably guard Tatum in this one which I don’t want to necessarily target either. Hayward against Patrick Patterson is a good matchup, but he is still on a minutes restriction. Jaylen Brown is cheap and may be looked to to pick up some more of the offensive attack in this one. He will have the defense of Ferguson and most likely Schroder when he is playing the 2. Those are both plus matchups. With Schroder coming off the bench I like Rozier a bit  more as well because he will get some time against him. He is still only $4300.

Tier 1: Kyrie
Tier 2: Hayward, Jaylen, Tatum, Rozier
Tier 3: Horford

OKC: Thunder, feel the thunder. Okay enough, so Russ is back and back doing his thing. This lowers my appeal for PG a bit because of the usage decrease, but it also means he isn’t the focal point of the offense and could get a few more easy buckets. He has a much tougher matchup on paper against Tatum compared to Russ against Kyrie. With this staying close both of them will be asked to play a full allotment of minutes. Schroder comes off the bench but should end up playing quite a bit of 2 guard in this offense while Roberson is out. He is a great GPP play in this one.

Tier 1: Russ
Tier 2: PG, Adams, Schroder (GPP)
Tier 3: Grant, Felton

DEN @ LAL (+4) o/u 229

DEN: Right away when I look at the matchups I see Javale and Jokic. Jokic is too skilled in this spot not consider. Then you have Kuzma trying to guard Millsap. Kuzma is the worst defender on the Lakers right now and he will be targeted. Millsap’s price has come down to $5800 which seems way too cheap in this game to avoid. Lebron, Ball, and Hart are all above average defenders. With Barton out though Murray and Harris are still on the radar. Then we got the bench of Plumlee, Juancho, Lyles, and Monte. Plumlee always seems to dominate the Lakers, while Juancho is getting the biggest bump of the bench with Barton being out.

Tier 1: Jokic, Millsap
Tier 2: Murray, Harris, Juancho
Tier 3: Plumlee, Morris, Lyles

LAL: The Lakers got their first win and now go back home to take on the Nuggets. Who’s going to guard Lebron is the first question I ask myself. They may start out with Craig on him, but ultimately I think they will have to move Millsap over to him. If that happen then Kuzma will have a better matchup himself. Regardless who they put on him Lebron is matchup proof. At this price point though I am a bit skeptical even though he may have to shoulder more of the offensive load in this game when looking at the matchups on paper. Kuzma too is too high for my liking. At $7400 now you need him to have a great game. McGee is in play again and as long as he stays out of foul trouble he should continue to thrive. The best matchup for the Lakers’ starters outside of Lebron goes to Lonzo. Lonzo does a little bit of everything and should continue that against Murray. Harris is a solid defender so I will not be targeting Hart in this one. There is better value in the other games or you could even pay up $300 more for Harris himself. KCP and Stephenson looked much better off the bench last night and Jonathan Williams has passed Beasley on the depth chart for the time being. Worth a look if you need a punt.

Tier 1: Ball, McGee, Lance Stephenson, Lebron
Tier 2: Hart, KCP, Williams (GPP punt)
Tier 3: Kuzma

 

Good talk and good luck

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