Happy Friday, let’s get it. I’ll add in the last couple games later today, but this should get us started.
CHI @ CHA (-9.5) o/u 227
CHI: Chicago is starting to catch the injury bug as Portis is now out for 5-6 weeks with a sprained MCL. This mean Jabari is going to be very chalky. He has a good matchup against Marvin as well to add to the appeal. Lavine has dropped 30+ real points every game this year and now has been bumped up to $7900. At that price he should be lower owned making him worth a look.
Tier 1: Jabari, Carter, Lavine
Tier 2: Holiday, Payne
Tier 3: Arcidiacono, Felicio
CHA: Charlotte is at home now in a rematch with the Bulls. They play better at home as noted with the almost double digit spread. Kemba is one of the safest plays again here with a solid floor. Marvin also gets a good matchup against Jabari and is cheap.
Tier 1: Kemba
Tier 2: Marvin, Lamb, Batum
Tier 3: MKG, Hernangomez (GPP), Bridges
DAL @ TOR (-11.5) o/u 226
DAL: Dallas is looking like they will get Barnes back for this one. I haven’t heard any news of a minutes restriction, but it would not surprise me if he had one as he works his way back to game shape. Doncic should still see minutes in the 30s even in a blowout so he is worth a look. He may have the best matchup out of the starters in this one as well.
Tier 2: Doncic, Barea, DJ, Matthews
Tier 3: Barnes
TOR: We should see a Jonas sighting in this one to matchup with Deandre in the middle. He has produced in limited minutes and should at least get 25 here. He is a great play at $5400. Leonard is up to 9.3k and will be reserved only for GPP with the potential blowout. Lowry is way up to $7800 now is in a similar boat.
Tier 1: Jonas Valanciunas
Tier 2: Lowry, Leonard, Green, Pascal
Tier 3: OG
GS @ NY (+12) o/u 229
GS: The potential blowout scares me here, but as we saw last game Curry and company only need 3 quarters. Curry and KD are great plays here if we can find enough value to squeeze them into a lineup. Jones gets a plus matchup against Kanter in the center for this one and could be a cheap punt play option.
Tier 1: Curry, KD
Tier 2: Jones, Draymond, Klay
Tier 3: Bell, Jerebko
NY: The Knicks got smoked last game in Miami. I did not see that coming and got crushed because Kanter was almost in all my lineups. Now that this could be another potential blowout I am not as high on Kanter or any Knick for that matter this game. Still at 6.9k he has to be looked at.
Tier 1: Dotson
Tier 2: Kanter, THJ, Ntilikina
MIL @ MIN (+1.5) o/u 233.5
MIL: Minnesota gets dominated inside which suits Giannis well. Lopez has had back to back decent games and could keep that trend continuing against KAT. Middleton has a tough matchup against Butler so I won’t be targeting him. Brogdon has a good matchup but also has very low usage so he isn’t really on the radar either.
Tier 1: Lopez, Giannis, Bledsoe
Tier 2: Middleton
Tier 3: Brogdon
MIN: Wiggins should be back for this one. If he’s out again go back to Okogie for a punt play. KAT can be avoided in my book until he is down in the 7ks. I will still hold off on debuting him in my lineups until then even though he should be fine to score against Lopez.
Tier 2: Butler, Teague
Tier 3: Okogie (bump up if Wiggins is out)
LAC @ HOU (-3) o/u 218
LAC: Another rematch game this early in the season. Pace up game so I like Gallinari and Harris in this one against the undersized Tucker and Melo D. Whoever Melo guards could have a big night. Harrell should get more minutes again here with the amount of pick and roll Houston runs. Revenge game narrative for him as well along with Lou and Patrick.
Tier 1: Harris, Gallinari, Harrell
Tier 2: Beverley, Lou, Shai
Tier 3: Avery
HOU: Harden is out for this one and will be reevaluated in a week. CP3 got bumped all the way to 9.2k in this one. He is still a Tier 1 play going against his old team without Harden on the floor. We should see some more Melo and Green in this one as well because Ennis is also out. Lots of value to be had here.
Tier 1: CP3, Melo (GPP), Tucker, Capela
Tier 2: Gordon, Green, MCW (GPP)
BKN @ NO (-9.5) o/u 237
BKN: Russell is a solid GPP play. Davis off the bench should also be in line for some extra minutes to try and guard Davis here. Other than that minutes are sporadic in this lineup with everyone getting back to health.
Tier 1: Davis (punt)
Tier 2: Russell (GPP), LeVert, Allen
Tier 3: Harris, Dinwiddie
NO: Elfrid is a great play tonight as he does a little bit of everything and is still relatively cheap on DK. AD of course is in play, but a potential blowout worries me. Mirotic came down to Earth a bit but still is getting the volume worthy to get a look here. Jrue is more a cash play for me with his decent floor.
Tier 1: Elfrid, Mirotic (GPP), AD
Tier 2: Jrue, Moore
WAS @ SAC (+4) o/u 236
WAS: This is a good game to target with it being high scoring and a close spread. I like the Wall vs Fox matchup the most. Beal is a game-time decision so keep an eye out for that news. If he sits Rivers should get more minutes along with Oubre and Troy Brown. Porter and Morris are more meh plays to me in this matchup and don’t jump out much.
Tier 1: Wall
Tier 2: Rivers (if Beal is out), Oubre, Morris, Porter
SAC: Fox has been consistent this year and is in a good spot again in this fast paced matchup. WCS is too cheap so he’s a definite look. Bagley’s minutes have been inconsistent so far, and is worth a shot at a GPP. Bjelica is in the same boat as Bagley, but I like Bagley a little more to match up with the more athletic forwards.
Tier 1: Fox, WCS, Bagley (GPP)
Tier 2: Bjelica, Shump, Hield