NBA DFS – 10/27/2018

9 games today here we go.

UTA @ NO (+2) o/u 220

UTA: Holiday is a decent defender so I won’t be paying up for Mitchell in this one. Gobert at $7400 is fairly priced and should get plenty of minutes matched up with AD. Ingles is in a good spot here against the undersized Moore. Rubio is cheap and will eventually get back on track. This could be the game, but he’s more GPP for me since we haven’t seen much out of him yet. Crowder should get more minutes here to guard Mirotic.

Tier 1: Ingles, Gobert
Tier 2: Mitchell, Crowder, Rubio (GPP)
Tier 3: Favors

NO: The Pelis are rolling right now as they were able to come back to beat the Nets and stay undefeated yesterday. AD is always in play even in tough matchups against Gobert. The back to back worries me a bit especially after having to play a full allotment of minutes against the Nets. Elf is in a good spot and probably has the best matchup of the starters against Rubio. Jrue always is a safe play and should be going back and forth with Mitchell a bit. Again, this is the second night of a back to back so we got to be weary here. Mirotic saw minutes in the 20s so he should be fresh for this one.

Tier 1: Jrue, Elf, AD
Tier 2: Moore, Mirotic, Randle
Tier 3: Wesley Johnson (GPP)

BOS @ DET (+3.5) o/u 210

BOS: Boston has been struggling offensively. Irving and Tatum have not shot well form 3 yet and will regress eventually. This low implied total makes this game less exciting for DFS purposes. Horford should get a bump here with Baynes out and no other viable option to matchup with Drummond in the post. Morris should get extra run too and he can match up with Blake.

Tier 1: Morris, Horford
Tier 2: Irving, Tatum
Tier 3: Brown, Smart

DET: The Pistons are undefeated. Yeah weird I know. Drummond should be able to win inside against this undersized Boston team. Reggie Jackson gets Irving defense and Ish off the bench should get a taste. No Kennard in this one so that should give Galloway, Ish, Stanley, and Bullock a few extra minutes.

Tier 1: Drummond
Tier 2: Jackson, Ish, BG
Tier 3: Bullock

CHA @ PHI (-5.5) o/u 228.5

CHA: The Hornets have been rolling. Kemba gets a tough matchup against Covington most likley, but he has absolutely been on a tear. I don’t mind firing him up in a GPP as he should be fairly low-owned and get a full workload in this more competitive game. If Embiid plays we may see some Biyombo to defend him. He is at minimum, but is strictly GPP.

Tier 1: Kemba (GPP)
Tier 2: MKG, Biyomb (GPP), Monk, Lamb, Batum, Marvin
Tier 3:

PHI: The big question here is does Embiid play or not. If he’s out then Amir and Muscala will need a look and Simmons becomes a must play. If he plays then there is no one on the Hornets that can guard him. Saric has a nice matchup against Marvin Williams and would also be a lock if Embiid sits. He is only $5500 and should be looked at in all formats.

Tier 1: Saric (GPP), Simmons, Embiid
Tier 2: Redick, Muscala (Tier 1 if Embiid is out), Amir
Tier 3: Fultz

IND @ CLE (+6.5) o/u 215.5

IND: Indy is still bitter after losing to the Cavs last year in the first round of playoffs. They should wash that taste out of their mouth tonight. No Tyreke in this one so Bojan should get more run. I like Dipo here as he should be shouldering the load and doesn’t have anyone on this Cavs team to guard him. He gets a bump with Evans out as well.

Tier 1: Dipo, Bojan
Tier 2: Thad
Tier 3:

CLE: Cleveland is still looking for their first win. Love would have to be given some consideration if he plays at $8100 and the only viable weapon. Lue needs to give more minutes to Clarkson I think as they need scoring from somewhere. Nance is a bit too expensive to me if Love plays, but if Love sits he will be relied on more. Cedi has fallen off and borderline dead to me. I’m sure no one will be on him at this price point so if you’re really contrarian you can throw a dart with him. Sexton is getting consistent minutes now and is a cheap punt play if you need it.

Tier 1: Nance (only if Love is out)
Tier 2: Love, Clarkson, Sexton (GPP)
Tier 3: Cedi

CHI @ ATL (-5.5) o/u 232

CHI: Atlanta gives up points and Lavine scores points. He should be well-rested after sitting the 4th in the blowout loss yesterday. Payne gets Trae Young defense and is fairly priced at 5k. Shaq Harrison played well in his limited play time making his debut for the Bulls and could get a few minutes tonight as well. Jabari was a lock for me at $5500, but at $6100 now and the little passive-aggressive comments between him and Hoiberg I have lost some appeal. Carter returns to his hometown in this one and should show out for his family and friends if he gets the minutes.

Tier 1: Lavine, Payne, Carter
Tier 2: Jabari, Holiday
Tier 3: Hutchinson, Felicio

ATL: Bembry went off last game against Dallas and is now $4200. He probably will never get 16 rebounds again in his career, but he is worth a look while he’s hot. Dedmon and Len will soon be splitting minutes. That may not happen this game so Len is worth a look. Baze has been rolling as well. We can’t forget about Prince either who is leading this team in points.

Tier 1: Prince, Bembry
Tier 2: Trae, Bazemore, Len
Tier 3:

POR @ MIA (-1.5) o/u 220

POR: Lillard on the road after a big game worries me a bit. He will be due for some regression even though Dragic can’t guard him. Nurkic in the paint should be able to produce against Whiteside. The thing for him is he needs the minutes and those have been inconsistent to say the least. Also, let’s not forget this team played in Orlando last game. No way they just stayed in the hotel all night on this Florida trip.

Tier 1: Nurkic
Tier 2: Lillard, Aminu, McCollum
Tier 3: Collins

MIA: Whiteside missed the last 2 games against Portland. He’s another player that produces if he gets the minutes. He likes to get in foul trouble too often or piss off Coach Spo so he is more a GPP play. Had a good game last game so worth a shot. As I have mentioned before I like targeting Dame and C.J. on the defensive end. McGruder is on a roll and is still fairly cheap at 5.3k and get McCollum defense.

Tier 1: McGruder
Tier 2: Whiteside, Richardson, Dragic
Tier 3: Tyler Johnson (GPP)

PHO @ MEM (-8) o/u 205.5

PHO: Booker is most likely out for this one so Josh Jackson will move into the starting lineup if that is indeed the case. He hasn’t shown much this season and is up to $5100 so is not really a must play in my opinion. The usage bump should be spread around, but I expect the biggest bump to go to Ayton, Ariza, and JJ. Warren off the bench should get extra run as well. Canaan is the only ball handler now so he should see an uptick as well as Jamal Crawford off the bench. Not super sold on any one of these guys especially with the low implied total.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Ayton, Ariza, Warren
Tier 3: Jackson, Canaan, Crawford

MEM: The Grizz get a great matchup today against the Suns. Gasol and JJJ should own the paint. Anderson got extra run last game for the first time this season and if can get the minutes is worth a look since he fills up the stat sheet. Temple is even a decent punt play against the Suns.

Tier 1: Gasol, Conley
Tier 2: JJJ, Anderson (GPP)
Tier 3:

ORL @ MIL (-9.5) o/u 220

ORL: This is a larger spread than I would’ve thought with the Bucks on a back to back coming from Minnesota. I like the Vooch here against Lopez. Ross could get extra run if this turns into a blowout. Gordon has a bad matchup against Giannis here. Isaac is interesting as he should get minutes and his length will be needed. Fournier may have the best matchup here against Bledsoe.

Tier 1: Vooch, Fournier
Tier 2: Isaac
Tier 3: Ross

MIL: The Bucks rolled through the T wolves last night and now get the Magic. Brook is in play here against the Vooch. He has been getting around 30 minutes when the game stays competitive. I think this one will stay close long enough for him to reach value. Giannis is a bit too pricey to me here and is more a Tier 2 play. Middleton has a solid matchup against Isaac and is fairly priced. Brogdon gets Augustin defense and is also worth a look at $4500.

Tier 1: Lopez
Tier 2: Brogdon, Middleton, Giannis, Bledsoe
Tier 3: Donte

LAL @ SA (+1.5) o/u 231

LAL: Lakers look a lot better after giving Ball and Hart consistent minutes. Rondo is back now so it will be interesting to see how Walton adjusts his rotations. Both Ball and Rondo are 6k and are more in play for GPPs. I will take a wait and see approach there. Hart should still stay with the starters which actually makes me like him less as his usage takes a hit. Kuz played well last time against San Antonio, but he is only a GPP play.

Tier 1: Lebron
Tier 2: McGee, Hart, Rondo, Ball, Kuzma (GPP)
Tier 3: Lance, KCP

SA: The Lakers give up a lot of points. Everyone is going to be on Demar and LMA after last game. I like them here again, but not as much with the price bump. Last game against the Lakers was an OT game as well so they aren’t going to get the same numbers. Marco is still at 4.1k and Gay as well didn’t get a jump from last matchup with the Lakers.

Tier 1: Marco (GPP)
Tier 2: LMA, Demar, Gay, Forbes
Tier 3:

 

Good talk and good luck

 

Advertisements