NBA DFS – 10/29/2018

Happy Monday. Let’s get back on the grind. Early games done, I’ll update the later ones asap. Trying to keep it short and sweet.

ATL @ PHI (-11) o/u 229.5

ATL: Negative matchups for most of the starters here. Trae is in play against Fultz. Dedmon saw more run than Len last game and that may be the trend we see going forward. I like him at $4700.

Tier 1: Dedmon, Trae (GPP), Bembry (GPP)
Tier 2: Prince
Tier 3:

PHI: Philly should blowout this Hawks team. Fultz is a decent GPP option against Trae Young defense. Saric should get Vince Carter matched on him. Embiid and Simmons are elite, but you have to decide if they can reach exceed value in 3 quarters of play,

Tier 1: Fultz (GPP), Saric (GPP), Simmons, Embiid
Tier 2:
Tier 3: Muscala

POR @ IND (-3.5) o/u 219

POR: Indiana has been fairly tough on guards. C.J. is cheap, but Dipo is a great defender. Lillard has posted back to back 60+ fantasy point games so I will let others chase there.

Tier 1: Aminu, Collins (GPP)
Tier 2: Lillard, McCollum, Nurkic
Tier 3:

IND: Guards against Lillard and C.J. is a target. Since Darren and Cory are in a time share I will look for value elsewhere. Similar feelings for Sabonis and Turner at the Center spot and Evans and Bojan at the 3. Thad is interesting.

Tier 1: Dipo
Tier 2: Collison, Thad
Tier 3:

BKN @ NY (-2) o/u 217

BKN: Brooklyn is on the second game of a back to back. They are better than the Knicks so that should help keep this one competitive. I like Jarrett Allen against Kanter. His price is down too

Tier 1: Allen
Tier 2: Russell, LeVert
Tier 3: Dinwiddie, Harris

NY: The Knicks got blown out the last couple games so the starters should be fresh. Kanter is in a great spot even though his price was bumped up. I don’t think they are in tank mode just yet so we can still look to him.

Tier 1: Kanter
Tier 2: Robinson, THJ, Dotson
Tier 3: Burke, Ntilikina

SAC @ MIA (-8) o/u 227

SAC: Fox, WCS, a little Hield. These players are the only ones who seem to get consistent minutes in the rotation. Now if the game turns to a blowout then Frank Mason takes over.

Tier 1: Fox
Tier 2: WCS, Hield, Mason (if you think it’ll be a blowout)
Tier 3:

MIA: Olynyk has played well in the starting unit and should stay there for now. He is still cheap and worth a look in this one. Dragic against Fox is also a plus matchup in my opinion. McGruder is a bit too expensive for me now that he is in the 6k range.

Tier 1: Olynyk, Dragic
Tier 2: McGruder, Whiteside
Tier 3:

TOR @ MIL (+2.5) o/u 222

TOR: Kawhi is out for this one. Lowry looks like a great play now even at his 8k price point. Siakam is way too cheap here and borderline a must play. Luckily on the other side of the ball Giannis is out too so this one should stay competitive throughout.

Tier 1: Lowry, Siakam
Tier 2: Vanvleet, Jonas, Green
Tier 3:

MIL: As I just mentioned above Giannis is out. He leads the league in usage so that is huge. Illy will get the start for him and is a punt play. Middleton and Bledsoe are cheap and hard to pass on as well. Brogdon and Lopez also get bumps up here.

Tier 1: Bledsoe, Middleton
Tier 2: Illy, Lopez, Brogdon
Tier 3:

LAL @ MIN (+2) o/u 240

LAL: This would normally be a game to target with the high total and close spread. Unfortunately, no one on this team can be projected for more than 30ish minutes, and to make it even murkier, Ingram returns tonight. Lebron is the only play locked into 35+ minutes a night as long as the game is competitive. Pair the uncertain minutes with the inflated prices and we should look elsewhere for value.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: McGee, Ball (GPP), Lebron, BI, Hart
Tier 3: Kuzma

MIN: Rotations are a little more clear cut in Minnesota. My favorite play here has to be Jeff Teague who seems too cheap at $5300. He will get minutes in the 30s as long as this one stays close. Taj is in a similar boat here

Tier 1: Teague, Taj
Tier 2: Wiggins, Butler, KAT
Tier 3: Rose

GS @ CHI (+11) o/u 230.5

GS: KD and Curry are too pricey for me in this one that should be a blowout. Klay gets extra run in the blowout games though usually so he is actually my favorite play from the Warriors tonight.

Tier 1: Klay
Tier 2: KD, Curry, Dray
Tier 3:

CHI: Outside of Jabari and LaVine there isn’t much to see here. Better value in other games to be had in my opinion.

Tier 1: Parker
Tier 2: LaVine
Tier 3: Holiday, Payne

DAL @ SA (-6.5) o/u 216

DAL: Doncic is questionable in this one. If he gets ruled out then Barnes and DSJ get a bump. They are both cheap to begin with and in play and the added usage with Doncic out would only add to the appeal. Spurs are not the same team defensively that they were last year yet they are still pricing their opponents that way.

Tier 1: DSJ, Jordan, Barnes
Tier 2: Doncic
Tier 3: Barea, Kleber

SA: The Spurs players are all priced way to high for this one. I will be avoiding completely here. Gay may be the best starter to target as he has gotten the lowest bump in price.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Gay
Tier 3: Derozan (GPP), LMA (GPP)

NO @ DEN (-9) o/u 230

NO: AD is out once again and Elfrid is joining him this game. Jrue is too cheap for all the added usage here. Clark will probably get the start now, but has a tough matchup with Gary Harris. Mirotic and Randle benefit from AD out too minutes wise. The worry in this one is how long can they keep the game close? If this was a home game for the Pelis I would feel comfortable playing all of them, but with this being on the road it makes it a bit more risky.

Tier 1: Randle, Jrue, Mirotic
Tier 2: Moore
Tier 3: Clark

DEN: With AD out Jokic gets Mirotic guarding him. He is up to $9900 and with the spread I will probably be passing. Millsap at $5500 is still too cheap. Murray and Harris should benefit in this one with Barton still out. Harris gets Clark on defense. He should be able to handle him easily.

Tier 1: Harris, Murray, Millsap
Tier 2: Jokic
Tier 3:

 

Good talk and good luck

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