NBA DFS – 10/30/2018

8 games tonight on the main slate. Let’s check it out.

SAC @ ORL (-5) o/u 220.5

SAC: Fox if he plays gets a good matchup against Augustin but is a little pricey for my liking. Bjelica is very intriguing at $5700. I still don’t know if he has gotten a lot better or is about to regress. Hield has been on a roll and surprisingly consistent this year. That could continue in this one. I like Bagley, but his value is contingent on minutes. Minutes have been there in blowout situations, but I think this one will be competitive unfortunately for him. If Fox is out though you never know.

Tier 1: Hield, Mason (if Fox is out)
Tier 2: Bjelica, WCS, Jackson
Tier 3: Fox, Bagley

ORL: This is a pace up game for the Magic. Vooch is way up for this one. He has one triple double already this season, but I am not paying up for the hope of that again. It is a great spot though nonetheless. Hield has played decent D this year, but Fournier is cheap enough to still consider. Pricing has these plays lower to me then they would be otherwise making them great GPP candidates. Could be sneaky as long as this game stays close.

Tier 1: Vooch (GPP), Fournier, Isaac (GPP), Gordon
Tier 2: Jerian Grant, Augustin 
Tier 3: Bamba, Ross

MIA @ CHA (-4) o/u 222.5

MIA: Not much here to target. They played once earlier this season so these teams know each other somewhat. Whiteside if he can stay out of foul trouble could dominate Zeller inside. He’s my favorite play from Miami, but with his minutes being inconsistent he is a Tier 2 play to me.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Whiteside, Richardson, Dragic
Tier 3: McGruder, Adebayo (GPP)

CHA: Kemba at home and on a roll and dropped 58 DK fantasy points a few games ago against the Heat. He is too cheap for what he has been doing this year. He is dominating the usage and gets Dragic defense.

Tier 1: Kemba
Tier 2: Lamb, Batum
Tier 3: MKG

ATL @ CLE (-4.5) o/u 227

ATL: Bazemore apparently likes playing in Cleveland. He is fairly cheap and should be able to keep that trend going against Hood. Trae played well last game in Cleveland too and is worth a look more in tourneys. With the return of Dedmon the Center play has gotten murkier. Dedmon seems to have taken over even though Alex Len is still the starter.

Tier 1: Bazemore, Trae (GPP)
Tier 2: Dedmon. Prince, Bembry, Vince Carter
Tier 3:

CLE: Cleveland has a new voice coaching in Larry Drew. It will be interesting how he changes rotations from whatever Lue was doing. Nance has been playing well, but is no longer super cheap and is more a GPP play. Sexton and Hill are cheap, but again minutes are going to be key. Clarkson may be the safest play of them all tonight. We’ll know more after a few games with Larry Drew at the helm.

Tier 1: Clarkson (GPP), Nance (GPP), Sexton (GPP)
Tier 2: Thompson, Hill, Osman
Tier 3:

PHI @ TOR (-6) o/u 227.5

PHI: Philly has a tough road game today in Toronto. I won’t be targeting much here. Simmons against Leonard, Fultz against Lowry, and Cov against Green are all not the greatest matchups. Saric may have the best matchup against Siakam. Embiid is matchup proof and should be fine here against Jonas. He had his first game without 20 points and 10 rebounds last night and should bounceback here.

Tier 1: Embiid
Tier 2: Fultz (GPP), Cov, Simmons, Saric, Redick
Tier 3: Muscala

TOR: Siakam is going to be one of the highest-owned players after going off last night and his price not moving. I like him again tonight against Saric. Jonas should get a bump in minutes here to guard Embiid. Leonard and Lowry are too expensive in this one. **update – with VanVleet out Lowry gets bumped up

Tier 1: Siakam, Jonas, Lowry
Tier 2: Ibaka, Green
Tier 3: Leonard

DET @ BOS (-8.5) o/u 210

DET: Blake and Drummond are GPP plays for me tonight. Low total on the road against the Celtics is not something I want to target. They are priced down a bit to compensate for the matchup, but I still don’t have much interest

Tier 1: Drummond (GPP), BG (GPP)
Tier 2:
Tier 3:

BOS: This team is super deep and as a result cannibalize a lot of each other’s fantsy production. Tatum can fill up the stat sheet and has taken a leap this year, but still with the limited minutes I will pass. Irving is down to 7k and can go off at any point. Still passing here as there is more value elsewhere.

Tier 1: Morris (GPP if Baynes is ruled out)
Tier 2: Tatum, Irving, Horford
Tier 3:

POR @ HOU (-4) o/u 222.5

POR: Lillard is too expensive here and there are a lot of other point guards cheaper and in better spots. Turner and Aminu are super cheap and could get a lot of run against the smaller lineups Houston rolls out. Nurkic is more GPP as he doesn’t get consistent minutes.

Tier 1: Turner
Tier 2: Nurkic, Collins, Aminu, McCollum
Tier 3: Stauskas

HOU: Harden is out again so you need to consider CP3. He failed last outing which means he should be lower-owned. Lillard defense is something I target personally so this may be a great spot for CP3 even at the inflated price point. Melo has had back to back good games since moving into the starting lineup. He should have a chance to continue that tonight. Gordon is due for a good game, but I think I will ride the Melo train instead.

Tier 1: Melo, Green, CP3
Tier 2: Tucker, MCW, Capela
Tier 3: Gordon

WAS @ MEM (-1.5) o/u 218.5

WAS: Players haven’t been reaching value against the Grizzlies because they have been blowing them out and sitting a lot of the second half. This one should stay competitive in Memphis. Wall does enough to be matchup proof and we have seen Fox and Trae put up decent numbers in this spot. Otto is due for one of his good games and this could be it against the mismatch JJJ who will be guarding him. Oubre and Green should see some more minutes with Morris out. Mahinmi and Smith are going to have their hands full trying to guard Gasol in the paint. Smith is minimum and worth a look as a punt play.

Tier 1: Beal, Jason Smith (punt)
Tier 2: Wall, Otto, Jeff Green, Oubre
Tier 3: Mahinmi

MEM: No Howard again for the Wizards means Gasol will get to go against Mahinmi. Him and JJJ should be able to dominate the glass all night. Conley is priced up a bit, but offers a high floor and good ceiling. JJJ looks like a great play as long as he can stay out of foul trouble. Selden has seen more minutes in recent games and is worth a look at $3700.

Tier 1: JJJ, Gasol, Selden, Conley
Tier 2: Temple
Tier 3:

LAC @ OKC (-2) o/u 227

LAC: I actually don’t like many plays for the Clippers tonight. Harrell is priced up and not a good matchup for Adams if he plays. Tobias is going to be leaned on heavily and is their best player by far. At $7800 he should be lower owned. Beverley usually brings his best against Westbrook and is worth taking a shot on at his $4400 price tag. Danilo got a bump too in price even though he hasn’t done much this season except provide a high floor. Lou Will hasn’t been the usual Lou Will off the bench with the Clippers giving more run to the rookie Shai instead.

Tier 1: Tobias
Tier 2: Harrell, Beverley, Danilo, Lou Will (GPP)
Tier 3: Shai

OKC: Westbrook hasn’t had one of his crazy 70 – 80 point fantasy games yet. He is under 11k and still has that ceiling even against Beverley. He still hates him by the way from when Beverley contributed to his torn meniscus. Adams and Noel are questionable so monitor that. If one of them is ruled out Jerami Grant could push 35+ minutes again. Hamidou was getting 20 minutes a game until he missed walk through on the last one and subsequently was inactive against the Suns. He may be in the dog house a bit still

Tier 1: Westbrook, Noel (if Adams is out), Grant (if Noel or Adams is out)
Tier 2: Schroder, PG, Adams
Tier 3: Hamidou

 

Good talk and good luck

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