NBA DFS – 10/31/2018

Happy Halloween… just another day for DFS.

DET @ BKN (-2.5) o/u 214

DET: 2nd night of the back to back here as well as the 2nd game against Brooklyn this season. Last time these teams met Detroit won by three. This looks like another close one. I like Drummond here the most as BG’s price tag is a bit high. Bullock is down to 4k and with the minutes still there I don’t mind taking a shot in a GPP. Reggie Jackson and Ish are also in play against Russell and Dinwiddie.

Tier 1: Drummond, Bullock (GPP)
Tier 2: Jackson, Ish, BG, Stanley Johnson
Tier 3: Zaza

BKN: First thing I see when looking at the Nets is D’Angelo’s proce of $5900. He is too cheap here against Reggie Jackson defense. I know his minutes are inconsistent, but under 6k I don’t mind the risk with him. Jarrett Allen is also down to $5300 and is too cheap as well. He should get back to around 30 minutes this game against the the larger frontcourt as long as this game stays competitive.

Tier 1: D’Angelo Russell, Jarrett Allen
Tier 2: LeVert, Dinwiddie, Crabbe, Ed Davis
Tier 3:

UTA @ MIN (+2.5) o/u 224

UTA: Rubio returns to Minnesota for a revenge game. He has an average matchup against Teague so at $5600 he is definitely in play for me. KAT still doesn’t play defense so Gobert with his price bump is still in play with the chance to keep the 50+ point streak alive. Mitchell may end up with Butler guarding him so that lowers my appeal. One guard/forward will get Butler and then the other will get Wiggins’ terrible defense. Fire up the other. Butler will start on Ingles, but if Mitchell torches Wiggy they will switch it up.

Tier 1: Gobert, Mitchell (GPP), Rubio
Tier 2: Ingles, Favors
Tier 3: Crowder

MIN: The T-wolves got it done last game against the Lakers. Little different matchup this game with the Jazz. Taj might actually be my favorite play here. I don’t like targeting KAT or really any center against Gobert here. Teague may have the best matchup against Rubio so I don’t mind playing him at $5400 either.

Tier 1: Teague, Taj
Tier 2: KAT, Butler, Rose
Tier 3:

DEN @ CHI (+7.5) o/u 226

DEN: With this game in Chicago it has a chance to stay competitive. The Nuggets are priced up for it, but may actually be worth the higher price tag. Murray and Harris are 7k or more now and get to matchup with Payne and LaVine. I don’t mind paying up for either or both while Barton is out. Monte Morris off the bench is relatively cheap at $4300 and if you think this one gets out of hand early he is worth a look. Lyles is literally in the same boat as him with the same price. Jokic at $9700 is high enough to make me consider avoiding. He could go off like he did against the other rook on the Suns. Millsap is still cheap and will be matched with Parker or Hutchinson… yeah don’t think too ard just play him.

Tier 1: Millsap, Harris, Murray
Tier 2: Jokic, Morris (bump up for blowout), Lyles (bump up for blowout)
Tier 3: Plumlee

CHI: Payne is still the starter at point guard and is still relatively cheap. I don’t mind him against Murray here, but there is better value out there. LaVine is in play here as I don’t know who else will score for them and keep it competitive. Harris is a decent defender so this is more a GPP play. Parker isn’t getting the start, but gets at least 25 minutes and could get a few more against the larger frontcourt just to have a bigger body out there.

Tier 1: Parker, LaVine (GPP), Holiday
Tier 2: Payne, Wendell
Tier 3:

IND @ NY (+5.5) o/u 211

IND: Surprisingly not much to see here. Dipo has been meh all season yet is priced like he was still playing like Westbrook Junior. Most of the other positions are stuck in a time share and are nothing more than dart throws. Thad is cheap enough to gamble on and is the only other player who consistently reaches 30 minutes a game.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Thad Yound
Tier 3: Dipo, Sabonis

NY: The Knicks are already moving to tank mode. I may have mentioned that in another article already… Layer in the low implied Vegas total and I honestly am fine fading this game as a whole.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Ntilikina, Dotson, Hardaway, Vonleh, Kanter
Tier 3: Robinson, Hezonja

NO @ GSW (no line yet)

NO: The big news here will come after shootaround when we find out if AD is playing or not. If he is playing he is a prime GPP candidate, if not, then this may be a blowout.. you should know the drill here after the last couple games without AD. If he is ruled out then Jrue, Mitotic, Randle, and even Diallo gets a bump. If he play I still like Jrue here

Tier 1: AD (GPP), Jrue
Tier 2: Mirotic, Randle, Moore
Tier 3:

GSW: Headband Klay is a thing now apparently. He got an $800 price bump because of the headband. KD has no one to guard him here. AD may have to try if the game stays close. Jrue can slow Steph a bit, but he is basically matchup proof with his range. McKinnie went off last game with the blowout so if you think it’ll be similar gameflow he is worth a look at only $3300.

Tier 1: KD
Tier 2: Klay, Curry, Dray
Tier 3: McKinnie (if you think it’ll be a blowout)

SA  @ PHO (no line yet)

SA: Here we need to wait and see if Booker is playing or not. If he plays they could keep this one close enough to consider some plays from the Spurs. Forbes is cheap for the 30+ minutes he gets as the starting point guard. Against weaker teams I don’t mind playing him. Gay is up to 6.1k due to him having three consecutive double doubles.

Tier 1: Gay (GPP), Forbes
Tier 2: Derozan, LMA
Tier 3: Pau

PHO: As mentioned above we need to see if Booker is in or out for this one. Ayton looks like a solid play with or without him at $7100. The Spurs aren’t the defense they used to be so we get a free discount on Suns players right now.

Tier 1: Ayton, Booker (if he plays)
Tier 2: Canaan, Ariza
Tier 3: Anderson

DAL @ LAL (-7) o/u 235

DAL: Teams against the Lakers have been worth targeting so far this season. Deandre Jordan looks to be in the best spot as Centers have consistently put up numbers this year. DSJ and Barnes are still relatively cheap and have been getting consistent minutes as well. Doncic is adjusting to the NBA game as he put up his first 50 burger against the Spurs (this was an OT game though). He fills up the stat sheet so has a safe floor and good ceiling with the triple double threat.

Tier 1: Deandre Jordan, Barnes (GPP)
Tier 2: Matthews, DSJ, Doncic
Tier 3: Kleber, Barea

LAL: The Lakers are getting better each game yet still are struggling to close out games. Rondo is coming off the bench, but has now played more than Lonzo in the last two games. Ball is due for some regression and has dropped down to 5k to put him in a spot for a bounceback game. With the return of Ingram to the lineup there isn’t much thought left for Hart, KCP, or Stephenson. Walton has chosen to leave Kuzma in the starting 5 so they all are in the second group vying for shots.

Tier 1: Lonzo (GPP), JaVale
Tier 2: Rondo, LBJ, Kuzma, Ingram
Tier 3: Lance

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