NBA DFS – 11/3/2018

Wooo the weekend, let’s get back to it. 7 game main slate for DK today.

CLE @ CHA (-9.5) o/u 222

CLE: Larry Drew seems to be given most minutes to his starters and Sexton. They have been priced up to the point where I don’t have much appeal. Hood has had three solid games in a row, but doesn’t offer a high floor. Hood, Dekker, and Cedi are getting minutes in low 30s so if you want to hae exposure to the Cavs I would suggest looking there.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Cedi, Thompson, Hood, Dekker
Tier 3: Clarkson, Hill, Sexton

CHA: This one could easily turn into a blowout. If you look at the plays above for Cleveland you can see they are basically a JV team. We need to get value from the starters in 3 quarter and look at the bench players for Charlotte as they should get some extra run.

Tier 1: Bridges, Hernangomez (GPP)
Tier 2: Lamb, Batum, Kemba, Zeller, Monk, MKG
Tier 3:

 

BOS @ IND (+3.5) o/u 207

BOS: Tatum and Irving look to have the best matchups in this one against Bojan and Darren respectively. With the spread being close I don’t mind playing them, but their prices lower my appeal a lot. Add that into the low implied totals for each team and it makes it harder for me to justify the 8k and 6k price tags for Irving and Tatum

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Tier 3: Irving, Tatum, Horford

IND: Dipo finally had a game in par to what he was doing last year. With prices already being set for today we actually get a discount on him at $7700. He is definitely in play and has played well against the Celtics in the past. Collison is cheap here as well and gets a nice matchup with Irving.

Tier 1: Collison, Dipo
Tier 2: Thad, Myles Turner
Tier 3: Sabonis, Tyreke, Bojan

MIA @ ATL (+5.5) o/u 226

MIA: Dragic is out for this one. That should open up extra minutes for Tyler Johnson at point guard. Trae Young is one of the worst defenders so I expect Tyler to be very chalky. Wade should get a bump here as well. Winslow is relatively cheap and also in a good spot. He has shared some of the backup point guard duties recently and could see around 30 minutes in this one too.

Tier 1: Winslow, Tyler Johnson, Wade 
Tier 2: Whiteside, Josh Richardson
Tier 3: Olynyk, McGruder

ATL: Dedmon may have lost a step to Len after Len put up a good performance against the Cavs a couple games back. If that is indeed the case this is a good buy-low spot for him. Whiteside gets blocks, but he is not a great defender by any means. If he is in the game, Len or Dedmon will need to be in there on defense. Bazemore probably has the best matchup on the offensive end versus McGruder while Trae will get his shots up regardless.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Bazemore, Len, Vince Carter (punt), Bembry, Trae Young
Tier 3: Dedmon

HOU @ CHI (+8) o/u 223

HOU: Harden is back and Gordon is out for this one. He shouldn’t ave any limitations either according to reports from D’Antoni this morning. The Rockets haven’t lived up to expectations this year yet so this could stay close for longer than expected from the 8 point spread. Capela is my favorite play in this one. He has been getting 30+ minutes nightly and should see that again here.

Tier 1: Capela
Tier 2: Tucker, CP3, Harden
Tier 3: MCW, Green

CHI: Wendell Carter is really coming into his own over the few games. He managed to put up 33.5 DK fpts in around 24 minutes of play because of foul trouble. I don’t mind playing him here again even with the price bump to 5.5k. Holiday does a bit of everything so can fill up the stat sheet on any given night. While he is under 5k and most likely getting Harden defense, he is worth a look.

Tier 1: Wendell Carter, Justin Holiday
Tier 2: LaVine
Tier 3:

NO @ SA (-3.5) o/u 228

NO: AD should be back for this one so that hurts Randle, Mirotic, and Jrue a bit. Diallo and Okafor can be avoided completely as well now. Everyone’s price is inflated to the point that you can avoid them on the road against the Spurs. Tim Frazier will get the start against Forbes while Jrue gets matched up with Demar. Mirotic gets a plus matchup against Cunningham in the key. Again you are paying a premium for everyone here so I will be looking for value elsewhere. This is the second highest total on the slate so they still could be worth a shot on.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Frazier
Tier 3: AD, Jrue, Mirotic, Randle

SA: Dante may need extra run in this one to match the larger, athletic frontcourt of the Pelicans. He is a punt play here at $3200. LMA and Demar should get plenty of minutes in what should be a close competitive game. I don’t mind them here at all, but they are a little pricey so I have them more as Tier 2 plays. I do like LMA more than Mirotic so if you have to choose between the 2 to fill out your lineup, you know what way I am leaning.

Tier 1: Cunningham (punt)
Tier 2: Aldridge, Demar, Pau, Gay
Tier 3: Forbes

UTA @ DEN (-4.5) o/u 210

UTA: Mitchell is probable to play in this one after sitting out last night with a hamstring injury. Harris is a solid defender so even at $7500 he is a Tier 2 play for me. Rubio has a good matchup, but loses some usage to Mitchell. On the road in Denver on the second night of a back to back is one of the hardest games to play so everyone gets a bump down for that. Not going to have much exposure here.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Mitchell, Favors, Rubio
Tier 3: Gobert

DEN: Jokic has not played well versus Utah in the past, so I won’t start playing him now. No one here against the Jazz is actually that appealing. Murray against Rubio is probably the best matchup of the starters, but with the $6600 price tag I do not have much interest.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Plumlee, Lyles, Millsap
Tier 3: Murray

LAL @ POR (-3.5) o/u 236

LAL: Walton tightened up his rotations last game after he had a talking to with Magic Johnson. All the starters played 30+ minutes and I would expect similar tonight. Ball is cheap at $5200, which is actually cheaper than Rondo off the bench. If he can stay out of foul trouble he looks like a decent play. JaVale McGee played 35 minutes last game and looked great while doing it. He could push the 30 minute mark again here and is worth a look even at his elevated price point.

Tier 1: JaVale, Ball
Tier 2: Kuzma, LeBron, Ingram
Tier 3: Stephenson, Hart

POR: Lillard is priced too high at almost 10k. Ball is an underrated defender and could easily slow him down enough to not reach value. Aminu has the tough task of guarding LeBron so that means Layman will start on Kuzma. We could possibly some more Zach Collins at the 4 spot to match up with him leaving Nurkic on McGee. Swanigan has been getting some more minutes recently himself and if they choose to have Collins as the backup center then he could see a few minutes at the 4 as well. McCollum is cheap, but will have to deal with the length of Ingram.

Tier 1: Nurkic
Tier 2: McCollum, Collins, Turner, Swanigan
Tier 3: Lillard

 

Good talk and good luck

 

 

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