NBA DFS – 11/4/2018

6 games today on this first Sunday in November.

NY @ WAS (-7.5) o/u 224

NY: The tank is real and I feel like the season just started… oh yeah it did. Mitchell Robinson is starting at center and played 34 minutes last game. That could be inflated a bit with Vonleh being in foul trouble, but he should still get 25+ minutes in this one. Speaking of Vonleh, he should get back to his 26-30 minutes he was getting before the last game as well. Mudiay looks to have gotten back into the rotation and is a punt play if you like darts.

Tier 1: Robinson, Vonleh, Ntilikina
Tier 2: Dotson, Mudiay, Hardaway Jr.
Tier 3: Kanter, Trier

WAS: Howard looked good offensively in his first game back against the Thunder. I have not heard any word of a minutes restriction for him so he looks like a great play at $5900. If he gets close to 30 minutes in this one against Robinson and Kanter, he should easily reach value. I find it very hard to list Porter as a Tier 1 play today, but here I am. He is just too cheap for someone who will get 30 minutes and has a decent floor and ceiling with a plus matchup against Dotson.

Tier 1: Howard, Porter
Tier 2: Beal, Oubre, Wall
Tier 3: Morris

PHI @ BKN (+4) o/u 224

PHI: Simmons is way too expensive for his production over the last 5 games. Unless you think he is getting a triple double, this is an easy fade for me. Embiid has been unguardable and is priced way up to $11800. At that price he is in fade territory as well. My favorite play of Philly is actually Mike Muscala. He should get minutes in the low 20s and does a little of everything with the 2nd unit.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Muscala
Tier 3: Simmons, Embiid, Saric, Redick

BKN: Jarrett Allen has disappointed me the last couple games, but he will have to play solid here against Embiid as he is the Nets best chance of slowing him down at all. Russell is down to $5700 and is worth a look in GPPs with his high ceiling. Minutes are inconsistent in the Brooklyn rotation yet LeVert and Harris seem to always get around 30 mins a night. They both have been solid and are in play here today.

Tier 1: Allen, Russell (GPP)
Tier 2: Crabbe, Harris, Davis, LeVert, Dinwiddie
Tier 3: RHJ

ORL @ SA (-8) o/u 206

ORL: Gordon is down to $6400 here and has a tough matchup against against LMA. He is worth a shot in a GPP with the reduced price. Fournier may have the best matchup in this one against Demar. Vooch gets Poeltl to start and should be able to beat him in the post as well. If Orlando can keep this game competitive these can all be sneaky plays.

Tier 1: Gordon (GPP)
Tier 2: Vooch, Fournier, Isaac, Ross
Tier 3: Bamba

SA: Spurs are most likelyy going to be without Gay today due to a sore heel. With them on the second night of a back to back pay attention to news to see if anyone else gets ruled out for rest by Popovich. Cunningham should get the start again and play around 30 minutes. He is a great punt play and will probably be highly owned.

Tier 1: LMA, Cunningham
Tier 2: Gasol, Belinelli, Mills, Derozan
Tier 3: Forbes

MEM @ PHO (+4) o/u 211

MEM: Kyle Anderson has been getting plenty of minutes, yet hasn’t had one of his stat sheet stuffing games yet. That could change today against Phoenix. Gasol and Conley are all viable here as well. Shelvin Mack has back to back 30+ fantasy point games and is still relatvely cheap at 4k. He will probably be highly owned now for this one. JJJ just cannot stay out of foul trouble. If he ever does get minutes into the 28-30 range he will be a great play.

Tier 1: Gasol, Anderson, Mack
Tier 2: Conley
Tier 3: JJJ (GPP) 

PHO: I don’t like taking centers against Gasol, but Ayton may be an exception. Still a Tier 2 play to me since Booker is playing meaning not as much of the offense will need to go through him. Booker is my favorite play here tonight and he got a price drop to $7400. Canaan is a punt play at point guard, but again doesn’t do a whole lot and gets Conley defense. Warren is starting now but is only viable in GPPs as his minutes are inconsistent.

Tier 1: Booker
Tier 2: Ariza, Canaan, Warren (GPP), Ayton
Tier 3: Anderson

MIN @ POR (-6) o/u 226

MIN: Butler has been ruled out for the game tonight which opens up a lot of value for Minnesota now. Teague was already ruled out as well. KAT is relatively cheap at $8600 and deserves a lot of consideration. Rose is probable after disappointing everyone by rolling his ankle last game. He gets a bump as long a he is a go. Wiggins and Okogie are also viable here. Tyus will probably get the start and should get extended run here too meaning there are 6 players on this team you can safely project for 30+ mins that are all relatively cheap.

Tier 1: KAT, Rose, Taj, Okogie
Tier 2: Taj, Tyus
Tier 3: Tolliver

POR: The Blazers are on the second night of their back to back after losing to the Lakers last night. Lillard is down to a more fair price at $9200. Nurkic is at $6600 and could get a few more minutes against KAT and has the best matchup of the starters. If you want exposure to this side I’d look more to Aminu and Nurkic, but Lillard could have a big game any night as well.

Tier 1: Nurkic, Aminu
Tier 2: Lillard, McCollum
Tier 3:

TOR @ LAL (+3) o/u 238

TOR: Kawhi is currently questionable for this game and if he plays or not will change how we break this game down. Lowry has been very consistent this year scoring over 40 DK fpts in all but one game so far and is in play here once again. Jonas is going to get the start again, but should be reserved for GPPs. Siakam gets a great matchup with Kuzma and should be able to rebound and score inside at will.

Tier 1: Siakam, Lowry, Kawhi
Tier 2: Jonas (GPP), Ibaka
Tier 3: Green, Vanvleet

LAL: Ball killed me last night and Rondo only rubbed it in by going off himself. They look to be in a time share again and I don’t think I can play either until Walton has consistent rotations down. McGee is the target for me on the Lakers tonight. He is getting consistent minutes and all he does is back it up with solid lines. At $600 he is viable once again. Lebron is expensive and will a tough time against Kawhi if he plays.

Tier 1: JaVale McGee
Tier 2: Rondo, Ingram, Kuzma, Lebron
Tier 3: Ball (GPP)

 

Good talk and good luck

 

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