NBA DFS – 11/5/2018

That Monday grind time.

HOU @ IND (-1) o/u 213

HOU: With the close spread we should be able to project everyone for a full allotment of minutes. Eric Gordon has already been ruled out in this one as well. Harden at 10.7k is fairly priced here even though Oladipo is a good defender. CP3 has the best matchups of the starters against Collison and is worth a look at 8.4k. Capela is a little high-priced for my liking at 7.7k, but should get plenty of minutes against Turner and Sabonis.

Tier 1: CP3, Harden
Tier 2: Capela
Tier 3: MCW, Tucker

IND:  Turner is down all the way to $5100 in this one and definitely needs consideration. Collison is cheap too and even though he has a tough matchup with CP3, is in play as well. Dipo has been playing well the last couple games and should be able to continue that trend against Harden today.

Tier 1: Turner, Dipo, Collison
Tier 2: Evans, Bojan
Tier 3: Thad Young

CLE @ ORL (-4) o/u 213

CLE: This JV Cleveland team literally gives me almost no appeal for DFS. I’m not wasting much time here.. if someone gets ruled out then it might open up some value, but otherwise they are at most a dart throw.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Cedi, Nance, Sexton, Clarkson
Tier 3: Hill

ORL: Magic are coming off a win against the Spurs as they face the Cavs in their second night of a back to back. Isaac at 4k is immediately appealing to me if he plays. Gordon is too cheap here against a bad team in a close spread. Vooch is fairly expensive yet also should dominate in the post. A lot of Tier 2 plays for me.

Tier 1: Gordon, Isaac
Tier 2: Augustin, Fournier, Simmons, Ross, Vooch
Tier 3:

MIA @ DET (no line yet)

MIA: If Dragic and Whiteside play I don’t think I will have any exposure to this game. Tyler Johnson is at $4500 and Winslow is up to $5200. Neither of them have much appeal here with the price bumps. However, if Dragic is out again that could change the story a bit.

Tier 1: Tyler Johnson (only if Dragic is out), Winslow (only if Dragic is out)
Tier 2: Whiteside, Winslow (if Dragic plays), Richardson
Tier 3:

DET: Waiting to hear here about Bullock’s availability. If he’s out Stanley Johnson is a lock. If Bullock plays, Stanley is pretty much a lock still. His price of $3700 is just too cheap. Drummond is also too cheap here and needs to be one of the first building blocks of our lineups today.

Tier 1: Drummond, Stanley Johnson
Tier 2: Jackson, Ish
Tier 3: BG

CHI @ NY (no line yet)

CHI: Jabari got a drop after his recent struggles the last few games. He is getting minutes still, and against the Knicks in what should be a close game he is a borderline lock. He could always bust here, but Vonleh is not nearly the defender that Millsap, Thad Young, or Tucker is. I like my chances. Wendell, Lavine, and Holiday all got bumped up a bit and are all Tier 2 plays for me.

Tier 1: Parker 
Tier 2: Lavine, Holiday, Wendell
Tier 3:

NY: Knicks have a battle with another bad Eastern conference team today that they will for sure want to lose. Robinson is up to $4400 and is getting to the fade zone for me. Ntilikina is a thought, but just a thought to me. Not a terrible play as his peripheral stats should pay off against the lowly Bulls.

Tier 1: Ntilikina
Tier 2: Robinson, Hezonja, Dotson
Tier 3: Kanter

NO @ OKC (-4.5) o/u 238

NO: Highest implied total on the slate tonight. AD gets Adams in the post so be weary there. Jrue is up to $8300 so my appeal drops there considerably as well. Mirotic has been dominating this year and gets Jerami Grant defense. Grant hustles, but shouldn’t bother Mirotic too much in this one. Everyone is priced as if AD is out for this one so I won’t have a whole lot of exposure. Better value is to be had elsewhere. If I had to play one Pelican it would be Mirotic though.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: AD, Mirotic
Tier 3: Jrue, Randle, Moore

OKC: Grant does enough peripheral stuff to reach value. If he is scoring that is just a bonus. His price hasn’t risen too much and is still viable here. PG doesn’t have anyone to match up with him here and should also be high on your list of consideration. He is pricey, but could well pay off the price tag as OKC holds the highest implied total on this slate. Westbrook needs to be looked at for that same reason.

Tier 1: Grant
Tier 2: Westbrook, Schroder, PG
Tier 3: Adams

BOS @ DEN (-2.5) o/u 207

BOS: Unless word comes out that Hayward’s minute restriction has been lifted I don’t have much interest here. Irving is a GPP dart while Horford looks like a decent value at 6k.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Horford, Hayward
Tier 3: Kyrie (GPP)

DEN: Harris is down to 6.1k and Murray went up to 6.9k. Easy fade for Murray while Harris is fairly priced and should get consideration. Millsap is only 5.6k and is my favorite Nugget to target in this one. Morris is down to $3700 after the blowout win versus the Jazz. This seems to be an overreaction by DK on his price tag and is firmly in play this game.

Tier 1: Morris, Millsap
Tier 2: Murray, Harris, Trey
Tier 3: Jokic

TOR @ UTA (no line yet)

TOR: Lowry looked great as he led his team to the W over the Lakers last night. He may have to do that again here if Kawhi sits again. Jonas should play more in this one with the larger front court of the Jazz. He is worth a look at only $5300.

Tier 1: Lowry (Tier 2 if Kawhi plays), Jonas
Tier 2: Leonard, Ibaka, Siakam, Green
Tier 3: VanVleet

UTA: Mitchell has already been ruled out in this game and should be replaced by Grayson Allen in the starting lineup. He played 27 minutes in his last start and is priced at the min so is worth a dart. Rubio was the biggest beneficiary last game Mitchell missed. He is fairly pried for this one at 6k. Gobert is now back down to 8k, but is still a little high for my liking.

Tier 1: Rubio, Grayson (GPP dart)
Tier 2: Gobert, Favors
Tier 3: O’Neale, Crowder

MIN @ LAC (no line yet)

MIN: Need to wait and see on who gets ruled out for this one. Rose was probable last game and then was a scratch who joined Teague and Butler. If Teague plays he will be a great play at $4800. As it stands right now Taj at 4k is also looking like a great play. Wiggins, Rose, Tyus, and Okogie’s value all come from other’s being ruled out. If everyone is playing then they are Tier 3 plays for me.

Tier 1: Teague (if he plays), Taj
Tier 2: Butler, Towns
Tier 3: Wiggins, Rose, Okogie, Tyus

LAC: Beverly is too cheap at $3800 here. Boban is up to $4500 after getting a start so we need to see if that will continue. If it does he is worth a shot on at his price even in limited minutes. He probably won’t be able to guard KAT though so I wouldn’t expect him to play much more than 15 minutes in this game. If Butler is playing then Tobias probably has to face him which makes him unappealing.

Tier 1: Beverley
Tier 2: Boban (if he starts), Shai, Harris, Gallo
Tier 3: Lou Will

MEM @ GS (no line yet)

MEM: Not much to see here. The only play I like is going to be Mack as long as he is playing. The Grizz are on the second night of a back to back and have to go into the bay. These circumstances do not add up well for them…

Tier 1: Mack
Tier 2: Anderson
Tier 3: Temple, JJJ, Gasol, Conley

GS: I would not be surprised if this one gets out of hand quickly. With that being said there aren’t many plays here that I will be targeting. In the past Klay gets the most run in blowouts and could see the most minutes out of the big 4 in this one. Jones could get some extra run to guard Gasol if he plays and can keep the game competitive, but again I won’t be counting on that.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: KD, Klay, Curry, Jones
Tier 3: Dray

 

Good talk and good luck

 

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