NBA DFS – 11/7/2018

Let’s go, back to a huge 10 game slate today.

OKC @ CLE (+6.5) o/u 218

OKC: Thunder will be without Russ in this one. Schroder has been priced way up accordingly and may still be worth it. PG has been rolling and now crossed 9k mark while Grant is up to $5100 himself. The only core player of the Thunder who’s price dropped is Adams. He actually had better games without Russ so this may be a sneaky spot to get him fairly low-owned.

Tier 1: Adams, Grant
Tier 2: PG, Schroder
Tier 3: Diallo

CLE: Larry Drew is running a tighter rotation and actually has given his starters, starters’ minutes. George Hill looks like a steal here at only 4k and getting Schroder defense. Thompson is gonna be needed to try and guard Adams, and should be able to reach value at his current $5000 price tag. J.R. has seen a resurgence this last two games and is worth a look in GPPs

Tier 1: Thompson, Hill, J.R. Smith (GPP)
Tier 2: Clarkson, Nance, Cedi
Tier 3: Sexton

DET @ ORL (+1.5) o/u 212

DET: Not sure what Stanley Johnson did to get benched last game. He was in a prime spot and Bullock was ruled out yet only got 13 minutes. Glenn Robinson got the start yet Langston Galloway got 35 minutes off the bench. Bullock might play in this one, and if he does it only makes this backcourt murkier. Drummond and Blake have been tearing it up inside and get decent matchups against Vooch and Gordon. Probably will look there if I want exposure to the Pistons.

Tier 1: Drummond
Tier 2: Glenn Robinson (if he starts), BG, Jackson
Tier 3: Stanley (GPP), Galloway, Ish

ORL: Gordon is more fairly priced today yet is still worth a look. Grant and Augustin are sharing the point guard minutes most games so I give the edge to Grant as he’s cheaper if you want to punt there. Vooch should get 30 minutes and Bamba could see some extra run against the larger Pistons frontcourt.

Tier 1: Gordon
Tier 2: Jerian Grant, Ross, Bamba, Vooch, Fournier
Tier 3: Augustin

SA @ MIA (-2) o/u 217

SA: Bertans got the spot start last game with Gay out. If he announced as the starter again he is worth a look as a cheap punt play. He didn’t do much last game, but we have seen him fill up the stat sheet in years past. LMA should bounce back here against Whiteside or Adebayo. Mills has had back to back good games now and is still under 4k.

Tier 1: LMA, Bertans (if he starts)
Tier 2: Mills, Demar, Belinelli
Tier 3: Cunningham

MIA: On the Heat side I don’t have much interest. They are all priced up after the overtime game caused a lot of players to return value. I will be staying away here.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Whiteside
Tier 3:

NY @ ATL (+1) o/u 221

NY: Mudiay has worked his way back into the rotation and is not a terrible play at only $3500. The news to look for though is the availablilty of Kevin Knox. He only played 5 minutes last game on his return from injury, but if he isn’t limited he could be a nice GPP play at $3800. It may be best to wait and see with him. Hardaway has the revenge game narrative for him and DK priced him up to 7.8k because of it. Hezonja got extra run last game was able to produce as well. The way the switched up the rotation could be a sign they are evaluating everyone to re-work it and then go back try and win a game. Either that or it’s still full tank mode in action.

Tier 1: Mudiay
Tier 2: Hezonja
Tier 3: Kanter (GPP), Hardaway (GPP)

ATL: The Hawks are on the second night of a back to back after losing to the Hornets. Much better matchup here in what should be a competitive game. Huerter got the start and should again tonight if Prince sits. Nothing official has been announced, but it wouldn’t surprise me. He will be really chalky now after putting up 25.25 DK fpts last night. Bembry disappointed which means less people should be on him tonight. He should get close to 30 minutes again if Prince is out so he is still worth a look.

Tier 1: Huerter, Bembry
Tier 2: Bazemore, Lin
Tier 3: Dedmon, Len

PHI @ IND (-2.5) o/u 216

PHI: Saric looks too cheap here yet hasn’t been getting as much run with the return of Muscala and more recently Chandler. Muscala broke his nose and will be out at least a week. Everyone else is too expensive for me on a ten game slate. We can find better value.

Tier 1: Saric
Tier 2:
Tier 3: Embiid

IND: Collison is only $4300 after a couple not so productive games yet he still is getting around 27+ minutes a game. Dipo is going to have a tough matchup with Covington so Collison will have to step up more. Thad and Turner are relatively cheap as well here. Thad has more appeal because of his individual matchup.

Tier 1: Collison, Thad
Tier 2: Turner, Sabonis
Tier 3: Tyreke

DEN @ MEM (+3.5) o/u 205

DEN: Murray had a career high night as he put up 48 real points. The price jump to 7.5k has me in fade territory. Millsap has been hobbled a bit by injury so his price keeps coming down. With Jokic having a tough matchup against Gasol he will have to be more aggressive. JJJ on the other end has not been able to keep his hands to himself so Paul should have no problem taking advantage and getting to the line a few extra times this game.

Tier 1: Millsap
Tier 2: Juancho
Tier 3:

MEM: Not a whole lot of interest here so moving right along. Mack is up to a point where he isn’t a value play. Dillon Brooks is seeing more minutes now and is still cheap though.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Mack, Dillon Brooks
Tier 3:

CHI @ NO (-10) o/u 230

CHI: Jabari looks like the best value play for Chicago. The usage and minutes are there, now he just needs to play well. Mirotic offers a chance to do that. Payne and Holiday are in a similar boat except they don’t have as much usage. Holiday gets peripheral stats and may play a little harder tonight against his brother’s team.

Tier 1: Parker, Payne, Holiday
Tier 2: Wendell, Lavine
Tier 3:

NO: 2 out of the last 3 games Randle has broke the 40 fantasy point mark. He could do that again and see a few extra minutes if it doesn’t stay competitive. By the way, his price has came down in that time. Mirotic is playing his old team, but it’s not in Chicago so it is not a full revenge narrative. He does get a great matchup with Parker though so should definitely be under consideration in this one.

Tier 1: Randle
Tier 2: Davis, Holiday, Mirotic
Tier 3: Wesley

DAL @ UTA (-9.5) o/u 215

DAL: The Mavs get a tough matchup in Utah on the second night of their back to back. Dennis Smith is too cheap here at $5500 in my opinion. He’s my favorite play from the Mavs here. Barnes is cheap as well and DJ is coming down in price, but also gets to take on Gobert.

Tier 1: DSJ
Tier 2: DJ, Barnes, Barea, Doncic
Tier 3: Matthews

UTA: Mavs have been giving up a lot of points to guards this year, and as of last night, also to Otto Porter. Mitchell should be active for this one and has some definite GPP appeal. Rubio is hurt by his return so that lowers appeal there with the current price point.

Tier 1: Mitchell (GPP)
Tier 2: Rubio, Gobert
Tier 3: Ingles

TOR @ SAC (+8.5) o/u 232

TOR: The Raptors are rolling with or without Kawhi. Lowry has been hot and is now up to 8.9k. He gets a good matchup against Fox, but I’m not sure if this game stays close long enough for him to reach value after the price bump. The better value from the Raps is in the frontcourt with Ibaka, Jonas, and Siakam all viable plays.

Tier 1: Jonas, Ibaka, Siakam
Tier 2: Lowry
Tier 3: Kawhi (if he plays, GPP)

SAC: Fox is priced at a discount here with his price tag of $6300. He makes this team go and should be able to pay that off even against Lowry who is a solid defender. Hield is priced up a bit and has been rolling himself, I just personally find it hard to trust him still because of how inconsistent he has been throughout his career. He may have turned the corner this year, but I need a bigger sample size before feeling comfortable playing him at 6.5k. Out of the bigs I like WCS the most, but he also has a 6.7k tag that lowers my appeal.

Tier 1: Fox
Tier 2: WCS, Hield
Tier 3: Bagley

MIN @ LAL (-6) o/u 239

MIN: Is Jimmy Butler going to play, that is the question. He is headed to be a game-time decision every night until he is traded. If he’s out KAT looks like a borderline must play. Even if he plays I don’t mind stacking him with Butler who would also be a Tier 1 play. Taj got a little bump and always seems to kill the Lakers so he’s viable in my opinion as well. With Teague out again the Rose well is back open.

Tier 1: Rose, KAT, Butler, Taj
Tier 2: Wiggins (bump up if Butler sits)
Tier 3:

LAL: The Lakers are a rare favorite tonight in what will most likely end up being a close game. Ingram is cheap and worth a shot on now at only 5.7k. It’s hard to trust Ball or Rondo in this one as either could end up getting extended run over the other. Ball is still the starter so he gets a slight edge in my book. Bron is expensive and hasn’t been reaching value much this year so I’ll be staying away from him again. McGee at $6600 is a bit pricey, but it’s hard to argue against his floor and matchup with Towns.

Tier 1: Ingram (GPP), McGee
Tier 2: Ball/Rondo (GPP), Bron, Kuzma
Tier 3:

Good talk and good luck

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