NBA DFS – 11/8/2018

4 games today, Happy Friday eve.

HOU @ OKC (no line yet)

HOU: Harden is down to $10100 for this one. He hasn’t blown up and had a ceiling game yet so he is due. At this price I would assume he will be highly owned as well. CP3 is also fairly priced for Schroder defense here. Melo I’m sure wants to play well in this one as well after spending last season there, but he is more a GPP play.

Tier 1: Harden, CP3
Tier 2: Melo (GPP)
Tier 3: Tucker, Ennis

OKC: Westbrook is out for this one again so we get more Schroder. At 7k in his tough matchup with CP3 I won’t be targeting him. Adams is way down to $5800 in this one and looks like a very chalky play at that price. He gets a bump without Russ in the lineup snagging all the boards so this price tag is a steal. PG will be relied on heavily in this one as well and at $8900 is worth a look. He is matchup proof, but will garner a lot of attention here from Ennis and Tucker.

Tier 1: Adams
Tier 2: PG, Grant
Tier 3:

 

BOS @ PHO (+9.5) o/u 213

BOS: Really nothing so see here even though it is a good matchup against the Suns. The blowout potential is there and everyone is priced too high for the minutes that we can safely project.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Jaylen Brown, Horford
Tier 3: Hayward

PHO: Booker got a price drop and at 7.6k is firmly in play with the usage he has. Don’t forget he did drop 70 in Boston a couple seasons ago. This is at home on the other side of the States, but the potential is there. Ariza and Ayton also got a drop in price and need a look as well. Both of them are going to get minutes even in a blowout it looks like at this point., or at least until the Suns are in tank mode.

Tier 1: Booker (GPP)
Tier 2: Canaan, Ariza, Ayton
Tier 3:

LAC @ POR (-5) o/u 225

LAC: Beverley is again too cheap here at only 3.8k. He will get plenty of minutes to try and slow down the Portland backcourt duo. Shai is a cheap punt play who should get extended run with Bradley out again. Tobias and Gallo are fairly priced, but their history against Portland is bad enough to make me skeptical here of playing them. The Boban is too pricey here as well, and we need to pay attention to see if he is getting another start or not. It wouldn’t surprise me if Gortat gets back in the rotation.

Tier 1: Beverley, Shai
Tier 2: Tobias, Gallinari, Lou Will (GPP)
Tier 3: Boban

POR: My favorite plays for Portland are actually in the front court with Aminu and Nurkic. Aminu at 4.7k is a steal with the peripheral stats he can get. Add that to Gallinari guarding him and Lillard being slowed a bit by Beverley and it looks like a great spot for him. Lillard is coming down in price, but is still too high for my liking. C.J. had a great game last outing and should be able to teach the rookie Shai a few things in this one. I don’t hate playing him in this one at the 6.5k price tag.

Tier 1: Aminu, Nurkic (GPP)
Tier 2: McCollum
Tier 3: Lillard

MIL @ GSW (no line yet)

MIL: Giannis is coming off his worst performance this year and immediately gets another tough matchup with the Warriors. You know the Bucks should come out and bring their best here so it should be competitive. Giannis is down to 11k, and doesn’t have Draymond to worry about in this one. If Dray was playing I would stay away, but since he has been ruled out, no one on this Warriors team will be able to stop him. Bledsoe is in a major slump. I thought he could break out of it last game, but to no avail. He has played very well against the Warriors in the past so this is a perfect buy-low opportunity. Let’s hope he can come through this time.

Tier 1: Bledsoe, Giannis, Brogdon
Tier 2: Middleton, Brook Lopez, Illy
Tier 3:

GSW: With Draymond out for this matchup my guess is that Jordan Bell will get the start. If he does, he looks like a solid punt play as long as he can stay out of foul trouble while trying to guard the Greek Freak. Stay tuned and pay attention to see what news comes out before tip off. KD and Curry are more Tier 2 plays for me, but at the same time they should be locked in for a full complement of minutes and they are at home. That isn’t a super common thing for DFS.

Tier 1: Jordan Bell (if he starts)
Tier 2: KD, Curry, Klay
Tier 3: Jones, Looney

 

Good talk and good luck

 

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