NBA DFS – 11/9/2018

Happy Friday all. We made it through the week and now get to celebrate the weekend with a 7 game slate.

WAS @ ORL (+2.5) o/u 219

WAS: Wall against Augustin is a great matchup. I’m thinking he will get a 50 burger here, and at his price tag that’s what you need if you roster him. Porter only went up $100 in price after his great performance last week, but don’t count on him to have a repeat of that as he is as inconsistent as they come. Still if you are going to take a shot on him, it’s better to do so while he is still fairly inexpensive. Orlando is a bad rebounding team, and Dwight has been getting around 30 minutes a game. Even though he usage is low the extra boards could help him reach value in this one.

Tier 1: Wall, Porter (GPP)
Tier 2: Howard, Beal, Rivers
Tier 3: Morris

ORL: Vooch is coming down in price, but I don’t target centers against Dwight often. Fournier and Gordon have been on a good stretch yet their prices are up now to the point I will look for better value elsewhere. Plus Morris is a solid defender who can cause Gordon some trouble.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Vooch, Jerian Grant, Fournier
Tier 3: Gordon, Ross

CHA @ PHI (-5.5) o/u 225

CHA: This Hornets team is also priced too high for me. All the main plays are at a point where they have a bigger chance to bust then reach value. I’ll be passing.

Tier 1: Zeller (punt), Hernangomez (GPP)
Tier 2: Bridges (punt), Lamb, Batum
Tier 3: Kemba, MKG

PHI: With Muscala out, Saric at 5k is in play. He has struggled mightily to start the year, but he should turn it around sooner or later so get him while he is cheap. Embiid and Simmons are priced out of my range. Cov was on a roll yet recently had a couple downers. This could be a bounceback spot for him. Shamet has been quietly getting 20+ mins a game and is a punt play if you need one.

Tier 1: Saric, Covington
Tier 2: Shamet
Tier 3:

DET @ ATL (+5) o/u 226

DET: Atlanta gives up points, that’s what they do. Bullock is back and should get back to his full allotment of minutes. He hasn’t done anything special this year so he is due for some regression. Blake is up at 10k and Drummond at 9.6k. Of the two I like Andre more. Reggie and Ish get the biggest matchup bump here from Trae. Stanley made an appearance last game after only getting 13 minutes the game before that. He is in play at his price tag as long as he can stay in favor with the coach from now until game time.

Tier 1: Drummond, Ish, Jackson, Bullock (GPP), Stanley Johnson
Tier 2: BG
Tier 3:

ATL: When playing Detroit you have to go big to matchup with Drummond and BG. Len and Dedmon are in a timeshare and both have had decent games against Drummond in the past. If you play one of them you are basically hoping the other one gets in foul trouble so your pick gets more run. I’ll stay away from that coin flip if I can, but if I had to pick one I’d go with Len since he’s still the starter. Prince is the cheapest he has been all season and is due for some regression one of these days. Spellman came out of nowhere last game to put up over 40 fpts. Three words, don’t chase points. Trae has a ceiling, but at his price you are paying for him to hit that ceiling.

Tier 1: Prince
Tier 2: Vince Carter, Len, Baze
Tier 3: Trae, Lin

IND @ MIA (+1.5) o/u 207

IND: Dipo has been rolling, but again he is getting close to the point where reaching value means needing a ceiling game. Meanwhile Myles Turner and Darren Collison both look like great values at $4800 and $4200 respectively. Both are priced down and in a good spot to bounceback. Tyreke is also priced down to $4100 and may be worth a look now. He can stuff the stat sheet if given the opportunity, and now at the lower price you can gamble on him and that opportunity. Sabonis has played over 30 mins a game the last 2 and that could be a trend if he keeps playing well.

Tier 1: Turner, Collison
Tier 2: Dipo, Tyreke (GPP), Sabonis
Tier 3:

MIA: News on Dragic will determine if I’m playing anyone here or not. If he plays no one stands out as a great play to me. If he sits we can take a look at Winslow and Ellington and Tyler Johnson.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Whiteside, Tyler/Winslow/Ellington (if Dragic is out)
Tier 3:

BKN @ DEN (-9.5) o/u 210

BKN: Carroll is set to make his season debut for the Nets and only muddy the rotations further. Keep an eye out for a minutes restriction or expected play time. If he can get 20 mins he could pay off his price tag. Russell, Allen, and Dinwiddie are all too cheap when you look at production this year. Of the 3 Russell is my favorite and will probably end up the chalkiest as well.

Tier 1: Russell, Allen, Dinwiddie
Tier 2: Crabbe, RHJ, Levert
Tier 3: Carroll

DEN: Millsap at 5.1k deserves consideration here. Harris as well at 5.9k. The blowout potential worries me a bit, especially with this being in Denver. Morris is only $3500 here and should get extra run. Murray and Jokic have shown their ceilings this year and are priced up where you need that from them. They are GPP plays for me only.

Tier 1: Morris, Millsap
Tier 2: Jokic (GPP), Murray (GPP), Juancho, Plumlee, Lyles
Tier 3:

BOS @ UTA (-3) o/u 209

BOS: Boston came back to beat the Suns in OT and now travel into Utah for their second game in as many days. This is Hayward’s return to Utah and he is priced fairly for it at 5k. With this being a back to back pay attention to see if anyone is sat for rest. That would open up some value for this one. And updated this here because Kyrie has been ruled out now. Smart, Rozier, and Brown all get a bump here

Tier 1: Rozier, Smart, Hayward (GPP)
Tier 2: Brown, Horford
Tier 3: Tatum

UTA: The Jazz get the Kyrie-less Celtics tonight. Rubio has played well against them the last few gimes and is at a price where he should be lower owned. Favors is cheap here too and worth a look. Gobert is a fade for me based on his history against them and current price point.

Tier 1: Rubio (GPP)
Tier 2: Favors, Mitchell
Tier 3: Ingles

MIN @ SAC (+3.5) o/u 230

MIN: Again waiting on Jimmy Butler’s decision to play or not in this one. This looks like a game to target with the highest total and close spread. KAT and Taj are in play and should be locked into minutes against the larger frontcourt of the Kings. I am a little weary here of Rose with his tag of $6800 even though he has a good matchup woth Fox. All the starters are in play still with them getting Thibs minutes.

Tier 1: KAT, Taj
Tier 2: Wiggins, Rose, Butler
Tier 3:

SAC: Bogdanovic made his debut last game yet is out resting tonight. WCS is my favorite play in this one. He should get close to 30 minutes against KAT who isn’t ghe greatest of defenders. Koufos has been getting some run and is a punt play if you need one. Bjelica and Bagley have gotten inconsistent minutes recently. Bagley is cheaper so I like that, but Bjelica is against his former team. Both are more GPP plays. Hield will get his fair share of minutes in this one and also in play.

Tier 1: Fox (GPP), Bagley (GPP), Hield, WCS
Tier 2: Bjelica, Koufos
Tier 3: Troy Williams

Good talk and good luck

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