NBA DFS – 11/10/2018

Saturday slate, 8 games on the DK main slate today.

PHO @ NO (-9.5) o/u 229

PHO: Possible blowout potential in this one. Ayton has a tough matchup with AD, but I’m sure he will bring his best against him. Warren moved back into the starting lineup against the Celtics and played well with the extended minutes. He’s worth a look as long as he remains a starter for this one. Booker is back to $8300 now can be rostered, but more a GPP play for me.

Tier 1: Warren (if he starts)
Tier 2: Booker (GPP), Ayton (GPP)
Tier 3:

NO: Elfrid should be coming back for this one. That will take the ball out of Jrue’s hands more unfortunately. AD is always a consideration, but 11.8k is a pretty high tag for him in a potential blowout. There are a few solid value plays on this slate though so fitting him in isn’t too hard if you want too. **update Mirotic and Elfrid have now been ruled out so Randle is now a Tier 1 play and Jrue has more appeal with the ball back in his hands.

Tier 1: Randle, Jrue, AD
Tier 2: Moore
Tier 3:

PHI @ MEM (-4) o/u 208

PHI: News of the day goes to the Sixers who acquired Jimmy Butler for Saric, Covington, and a pick. That means for us we pretty much have a free square with Jonah Bolden at minimum who should get the start and a good chunk of minutes. Several others get a bump in minutes here as well. TJ should get back into the rotation and could be worth a look at the 3.1k price tag if you need more value.

Tier 1: Bolden, McConnell (GPP)
Tier 2: Redick, Fultz, Shamet
Tier 3: Simmons, Embiid, Chandler

MEM: Conley is too cheap here in my opinion and in a solid bounceback spot after struggling the last couple games. With Gasol battling inside he will have to carry more of the offensive load. JJJ has had back to back good games and stayed on the floor for over 30 minutes in each of them. He’s still risky with the foul trouble issues, but if he can keep his hands to himself he’ll be a steal at this price point.

Tier 1: Conley, JJJ (GPP)
Tier 2: Gasol, D. Brooks, Anderson, Mack
Tier 3:

CLE @ CHI (-5 ) o/u 211

CLE: The JV Cavs are now also going to be without Hill for some time which only helps their draft stock. Cedi has also been ruled out for this one. Sexton and Clarkson are priced up a bit, but this matchup is still good. TT is a double double threat as long as he’s getting minutes, which he is now.

Tier 1: TT, Sexton, Clarkson (GPP)
Tier 2: Nance, J.R., Hood, Nwaba (GPP)
Tier 3:

CHI: Cleveland doesn’t really play defense so this Bulls team should be able to put up some points. Lavine and Parker are my targets for this one as they handle most of the offensive usage.

Tier 1: Lavine, Parker
Tier 2: Wendell, Holiday
Tier 3:

WAS @ MIA (-3) o/u 224

WAS: The Wizards look bad, but for DFS we don’t worry too much about that. Wall and Beal are fairly priced here and in play. I hate rostering Otto, but this looks like a good bounceback opportunity for him. He’s more a GPP play still because his floor is fairly low.

Tier 1: Wall, Beal, Porter (GPP)
Tier 2: Dwight, Morris
Tier 3:

MIA: Whiteside has had back to 20 rebound games and actually looks motivated right now. Richardson is also playing well, but I like him more if Dragic is ruled out. Pay attention for that news if you are playing this game.

Tier 1: Whiteside, Richardson
Tier 2: Ellington/Winslow (if Dragic sits)
Tier 3:

BKN @ GSW (-7.5) o/u 225
BKN: The Nets are back at it after hitting a game winner yesterday in Denver. Minutes are murky here and inconsistent on a game to game basis. With Draymond out for the Warriors they could play bigger more often with some combo of Bell, Jones, and Looney, so Allen isn’t a complete fade here.

Tier 1: Russell (GPP)
Tier 2: Allen, LeVert
Tier 3:

GSW: With two of the big 4 out today it will be hard to not play KD. Lots of value today and even more here with Cook and Bell

Tier 1: KD, Cook
Tier 2: Bell, Looney, Klay
Tier 3:

HOU @ SAS (+2.5) o/u 210

HOU: Eric Gordon may sit again so keep an eye out for that. Rockets haven’t looked the greatest and so we see discounted price tags for them. They are still favorites here on the road in San Antonio so Vegas still has faith in them. The Spurs haven’t been the defensive team we have known in the past so this could be a good time to take advantage of the discount.

Tier 1: Harden, CP3, Capela
Tier 2: Clark
Tier 3: Tucker

SAS: LMA has had a couple down games recently and is down to 8k here. Derozan has picked up his slack on offense yet is bit too pricey for me. Gay is still out so Bertans is punt play if you need more value today.

Tier 1: LMA
Tier 2: Demar, Bertan (punt), Mills
Tier 3:

OKC @ DAL (+1) o/u 215

OKC: Dallas has struggled against opposing guards all year so Schroder is in play. PG has been shooting better and another good play with the usage bump from Westbrook being out.

Tier 1: PG, Schroder, Adams
Tier 2: Grant
Tier 3:

DAL: Dennis Smith gets the Schroder defense here today and is cheap still. Barnes is starting to warm up and also worth a look here against Grant. This game could have sneaky value with the close spread and people staying away with the low total.

Tier 1: DSJ, Barnes
Tier 2: DJ
Tier 3: Doncic

LAL @ SAC (+5.5) o/u 240

LAL: Walton is struggling with his rotations so far this season, but if Ball sits that will at least clear up the point guard spot. Tyson coming over hurts McGee’s value now as they look to already be in a timeshare. Ball if he plays is a GPP only play. He has played well recently and can fill up the stat sheet if he gets the minutes.

Tier 1: Rondo (if Ball is out), Chandler
Tier 2: Ingram, Kuzma, Lebron, Ball (GPP), Rondo (if Ball plays)
Tier 3: Hart

SAC: The Lakers are still giving up points at a huge clip due to their pace and lack of defense. Fox and Hield are great plays here. WCS is also in play, but with the addition of Chandler to the Lakers my appeal is lowered a bit.

Tier 1: Hield, Fox
Tier 2: WCS, Koufos, Shump, Bagley (GPP)
Tier 3: Bjelica

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