NBA DFS – 11/13/2018

Happy Tuesday the 13th. Not to be superstitious, but whoever reads this will win with me today on this light 3 game slate.

CHA @ CLE (+6.5) o/u 219

CHA: The Hornets travel to Cleveland to take on one of the worst defensive teams, well one of the worst teams in general, the JV Cavs. Fun fact, Kemba is the only player on this team averaging more than 26 DK fpts per game this year. He is up to a whopping $9700, yet is still in consideration on this small slate. Batum at $5800 is a meh play; I don’t hate it, but I don’t like it. The play I’m looking to is Miles Bridges. MKG has already been ruled out in this one so he should get a bump in play time here. Zeller’s minutes have been trending upwards over the last couple and I don’t mind him here again either. I’m still waiting for the #FreeWilly movement to start so Hernangomez can start getting consistent minutes.

Tier 1: Bridges, Zeller
Tier 2: Kemba, Marvin Williams
Tier 3: TP, Willy Hernangomez (GPP)

CLE: Monitor this one as Korver and J.R. are questionable. They already have ruled out Cedi who will join Love, Hill, and Dekker on the sidelines. If either or both of them are ruled out they will be severely short-handed. Nance moved into the starting lineup last game and should stay there again. He gets a good matchup with Marvin Williams. TT has enjoyed the coaching shift as he is benefiting from the consistent minutes. He is one of my favorite plays at center today, but will also be very chalky. Sexton hasn’t shown a high ceiling yet as most of his fantasy stock is in points, but he should see minutes in the 30s. Hood and Clarkson have flashed a higher ceiling, but the minutes aren’t always consistent for them. Again, the backcourt plays will hinge on the availability of Korver and J.R.

Tier 1: TT, Nance, Nwaba/Clarkson/Hood (if Korver and J.R. are out)
Tier 2: Nwaba/Clarkson/Hood (if Korver or J.R. is out), J.R. (if he plays GPP)
Tier 3:

HOU @ DEN (-4.5) o/u 214

HOU: Rockets travel into Denver to take on the Nuggets. Tucker is questionable so pay attention to that. If he is out Clark may not get to sit much as he played over 30 minutes last game and that was with Tucker playing. Melo is out and reports are that he won’t be playing another game for Houston. Capela is fairly priced here, but gets a tough matchup with Jokic. CP3 and Harden got back on track last game and their prices are back up because of it.

Tier 1: Harden, CP3, Clark, Capela
Tier 2: Gordon
Tier 3:

DEN: No one here stands out to me at first glance. Murray gets CP3 defense while Jokic and Harris haven’t been playing great in recent games. Millsap may be the play here especially if Tucker is out. Juancho started last game and didn’t do much in 30 minutes of play. We’ll need to monitor that and see if the lineup changes today. If Juancho starts he’s a GPP dart.

Tier 1: Millsap
Tier 2: Juancho (GPP), Harris, Jokic, Murray, Monte Morris
Tier 3:

ATL @ GS (-12) o/u 229

ATL: The Hawks have actually been fairly exciting to watch this year and stayed competitive more often than I expected. Even though this is a 12 point spread I could see the Hawks hanging around in it for awhile. Trae gets Cook defense, which is actually a tougher matchup than if Curry was playing. Len again has a longer leash here without Dedmon in the game, but the Warriors often go small.

Tier 1: Len
Tier 2: Plumlee (GPP), Trae (GPP), Prince, Bazemore
Tier 3: Huerter, Bembry

GS: The Warriors lost in OT last night and now get the Hawks on the second night of the back to back. They may a bit tired from that, but lucky for them they get the Hawks. Dray is too expensive here and may be rested. Klay only scores and is a bit pricey for me. Cook gets a great matchup with Trae here and is only 5.5k. Iggy did cut into his time last night, but he should get plenty of run here now.

Tier 1: KD, Cook
Tier 2: Bell/Looney/Jerebko (bump up to Tier 1 if they start), Klay, Iggy
Tier 3: McKinnie, Jones

 

Good talk and good luck

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