NBA DFS – 11/15/2018

Since 22 of the 30 teams played yesterday, we only get a 3 game slate this Thursday.

GS @ HOU (-1.5) o/u 220

GS: Drama for the defending champs seems to be brewing in Golden State. Draymond ended up being suspended by the Warriors last game for his words with KD. I don’t know the full story, but something is off in the locker room for the time being. Jerebko got the start last game for Dray and took full advantage of it. Dray is questionable for this one with a sprained toe, but I think he should be back for this one which ruins Jerebko’s appeal. If he does end up sitting Jerebko would become an intriguing play with the chance of parlaying his last performance. KD again is hard to fade without Curry on the floor, but at a price above 11k it is in consideration.

Tier 1: Iggy (GPP), Jerebko (GPP if Dray is out), KD
Tier 2: Klay, Cook, Bell/Looney (if Dray is out)
Tier 3: Dray

HOU: CP3 is probably most ready for this matchup as he went down against them and was unable to play in the Game 7 last season. He should be able to take advantage of Cook here. Gordon usually plays a lot against the Warriors as they go small so I expect him here to get close to 30 mins. Clark has become a regular in the rotation now though so that does hurt Gordon a bit. Speaking of Clark, he is questionable with a hip contusion, so if he sits that only increases my appeal for Gordon. Green has missed the last two and is also questionable. Ennis is also worth a look as a punt play if Clark and Green are unable to go.

Tier 1: Harden, Paul, Ennis/Gordon (if Clark and Gerald Green are out), Capela
Tier 2: Ennis/Gordon (if either Clark or Green play)
Tier 3:

ATL @ DEN (-12) o/u 222

ATL: Denver is a tough place to play in and the Hawks haven’t been the greatest this year. If it doesn’t stay close then the starters are going to get pulled and sat for the 4th. This makes all the starters only viable in GPPs to me. I just don’t trust these Hawks to keep it close enough to be core plays. The only starter worth taking a shot on to me is Len. He doesn’t get consistent minutes and has put up big numbers in limited time in the past. Make sure he is playing though; if he gets ruled out then Plumlee and Spellman get bumped up. Lin looks like a good play here too as he gets extra run in the blowout and has been playing fairly well.

Tier 1: Plumlee (if Len is out), Lin
Tier 2: Prince, Bazemore, Trae, Len, Spellman (if Len is out)
Tier 3: Poythress 

DEN: This one has blowout written all over it. Now teams do tend to take weaker teams lightly at times so this could be a trap in that sense, but I still think the blowout potential is real. Murray gets the great Trae matchup and is worth a look. Jokic sometimes destroys weak teams with a triple double in 25 minutes, but I still won’t necessarily be targeting him. My favorite play for the Nuggets in this one is Monte Morris. His minutes are trending up and they should be there even if this one does get out of hand.

Tier 1: Monte Morris, Juancho (GPP if he starts again), Murray (GPP)
Tier 2: Harris, Jokic (GPP), Millsap, Malik Beasley
Tier 3: Craig, Plumlee, Lyles

SA @ LAC (-5.5) o/u 119.5

SA: Spurs lost one on the road last night to the lowly Suns and now travel to LA to tak e on the Clips. Gay sat out last night so he should be fresh here. He is reasonably priced at $5600 and looks like a great play as long as we are able to confirm he will not have a minutes restriction. White has taken back his point guard spot from Forbes and is filling the role nicely. While he is still under 5k he should be in play. LMA had a disappointing game last night, but could bounceback here with no real defensive threat in the post for the Clippers. Popovich does randomly rest people on the back to backs so pay attention to hear if he sits anyone before tip.

Tier 1: Demar, White, Gay
Tier 2: LMA, Mills
Tier 3:

LAC: Gortat is back in the rotation and getting around 20 mins a game. At his current price I don’t mind playing him here. Tobias has been getting all the minutes he can handle and to me is too cheap at $7200. Shai and Harrell are both coming up in price as they continue to reach value each game. They are getting to the point where I’m not as confident rostering them, but for now I still am. Gallo has been struggling recently and yet his price came up from the season low by $200. I won’t be as quick to roster him here, but he is due for some regression. Lou Will is finally heating up and getting consistent minutes again off the bench. At 6k he is also viable.

Tier 1: Tobias, Lou Will (GPP)
Tier 2: Harrell, Shai, Gortat
Tier 3: Gallinari, Beverley

 

Good talk and good luck

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