Happy Monday all. Back to a 9 game slate here on our NBA grind. Let’s get it. We’ll knock out the early games and lock in players that we want from these as we go.
UTA @ IND (+3.5) o/u 206
UTA: Mitchell has been shooting a lot over the last 2, but doesn’t do much else. I like the play, but definitely not forcing him in my lineups. Gobert is slightly underpriced here at 7k in my opinion. I don’t mind Rubio here either at his 5.7k price tag. Game history shows his last two games visiting the Pacers he has put up over 40 DK fpts.
Tier 2: Mitchell, Gobert, Rubio
Tier 3: Favors, Jingles
IND: Dipo has already been ruled out here so Tyreke becomes a great value play. Collison and Cory Joseph also get a significant bump. Lots of sub 5k range players here that should get some more minutes and usage.
Tier 1: Tyreke, Collison, Turner (GPP)
Tier 2: Joseph, Bojan
Tier 3: Sabonis, Thad
BOS @ CHA (+3.5) o/u 218
BOS: Not really high on anyone here. Kyrie is the only one with legit upside, but now his price reflects that. Horford looks pretty cheap here as well, I won’t be targeting him.
Tier 2: Kyrie
CHA: Kemba had an amazing 60 real points last game and now is way up to 9.9k. That is a price easy for me to fade, but should be fairly low-owned for GPPs as well. Lamb is the other target here for me.
Tier 1: Lamb
Tier 2: Kemba (GPP)
CLE @ DET (-9.5) o/u 213
CLE: Sexton seems like a good play strictly because he gets so much run and you can lock him into 32-36 minutes almost every night at this point. Thompson is relatively cheap and he should need to be on the floor a lot against the larger front court of the Pistons.
Tier 1: Sexton, TT, Clarkson (GPP)
Tier 2: Nance
DET: Both Drummond and BG are in a great spot here yet also priced way up. I like Drummond more here over Blake tonight if I have to choose one. Reggie, Ish, and Galloway are cheap, but minutes haven’t been consistent in this backcourt rotation.
Tier 1: Drummond
Tier 2: BG (GPP), Reggie, Ish, Galloway
PHO @ PHI (-11.5) o/u 220
PHO: Suns are fairly cheap here, but the blowout potential does scare me a little. Ayton at 6.5k is very appealing here and has gotten run even in blowouts. Booker is fairly cheap as well at 7.7k and is the point guard by default which gives him some more upside. Warren is the other one to note for me, but Ariza coming back does decrease his appeal a bit. Bridges is getting the start tonight in his return home so is worth a dart here too.
Tier 1: Ayton, Booker (GPP)
Tier 2: Warren, Bridges
PHI: Embiid is a little banged up but firmly in play still. Ayton cannot handle him here. Butler is relatively cheap and Simmons is also worth a look, although they do cannibalize each other a bit. Wilson Chandler is a solid punt play with with minutes getting bumped up to 27 today.
Tier 1: Embiid
Tier 2: Simmons, Chandler, Butler
Tier 3: Redick, Fultz
LAC @ ATL (+8) o/u 233
LAC: Gallo has been ruled out so Harris gets the biggest bump I think here. Bradley is back so he will soak up some minutes. I think Harrell possibly could get some run at the 4 too unless they just give all those minutes to Mike Scott. Should be interesting how they split this rotation here with them being so guard heavy.
Tier 1: Lou (GPP), Harris, Harrell
Tier 2: Shai, Beverley, Mike Scott
ATL: Figuring out this rotation is always tough. With the ruling out of Gallo it should stay closer so if I take a chance on anyone here it is going to be Trae most likely. Prince was ruled out initially and now is back and active so that should be a low-owned spot if you want to take a chance on him as well. If you think Lin isn’t going to
Tier 2: Prince, Trae
Tier 3: Lin
DAL @ MEM (-3) o/u 201
DAL: Doncic and DSJ get a bump with Barea and Wesley Matthews out for this one. I do like them, but this is a tough Memphis defense and one of the lowest totals on the board tonight. Barnes you could go to as well or even Finney-Smith if you need a punt.
Tier 2: DSJ, Doncic
Tier 3: Finney-Smith, Barnes
MEM: Green is back after breaking his jaw and giving the starting job to JJJ. He should get minutes in the low 20s and is worth a look at only $4100. Conley is in a good spot here as Dallas has been hurt by guards all year. Gasol is viable too, but there are just so many plays at Center I most likely won’t squeeze him in.
Tier 1: Conley, Gasol
Tier 2: Green (GPP)
SA @ NO (-7.5) o/u 222
SA: Despite playing last night Gay is actually active for this game. He just seems too cheap here at $5300. LMA is in a great spot too at 8k and we already saw him play well against the Pelis once this year. Outside of that I don’t have a whole lot of interest.
Tier 1: LMA, Gay
NO: AD is matchup proof, but he does seem to get a lot of attention from the Spurs defense every time he plays them. at 11.6k I don’t mind fading him here. I actually prefer Giannis a bit more for $300 less against the Nuggets. Jrue is getting pricey to me, but he will get most of the ball-handling duties with Elfrid out for awhile. Mirotic may be my favorite play here at 7.1k, especially in tournaments.
Tier 1: Jrue, Mirotic (GPP)
Tier 2: Moore, Randle
Tier 3: AD
DEN @ MIL (-5.5) o/u 224
DEN: Jokic stands out as a great play here and centers against the Bucks has been a thing for awhile now. Harris is still cheap at 6.1k while Barton is out bumping his usage and minutes up. Millsap and Murray I don’t hate, but I also don’t love them so I won’t be forcing them into lineup. Lyles has come down a bit and is worth a look in tourneys at 4k.
Tier 1: Jokic
Tier 2: Harris, Lyles
Tier 3: Millsap, Murray
MIL: There should be some good plays here going overlooked actually. Giannis has no one to stop him here, but we all already knew that. Bledsoe is a fine play against Murray while Brogdon is too cheap at only 4.7k here. Rounding out the backcourt you get Middleton who is actually priced up a bit to where I don’ need to force him in either. Lopez looked good last time they played Denver so he has some appeal to me as well.
Tier 1: Giannis
Tier 2: Bledsoe, Brogdon, Lopez
Tier 3: Middleton
OKC @ SAC (+3) o/u 224
OKC: The late night hammer! We get Westbrook most likely playing in this one now after he showed up and went through shootaround. Diallo is a punt play here with no Abrines. Adams, Schroder, and PG all get a bump down now too. Grant is still in play in these fast-paced games as he should benefit from the extra positions giving him a few more peripheral stats.
Tier 1: Westbrook (GPP), Diallo (punt)
Tier 2: Adams
Tier 3: Schroder, PG
SAC: Fox is way too underpriced here at only 6.1k and needs to be considered in all lineups. He stood out from the start so I assume he will be super chalky. WCS is worth a look at the discounted price even though he gets a tough matchup against Adams here. Hield is also at a discount, but that could be due to Bogdan’s return and him taking some of his minutes. Bjelica and Bagley are interesting here as well. Bagley did start getting the backup center minutes so even if Bjelica plays well and gets more run, Bagley is not completely out at his cheap price tag tonight.
Tier 1: Fox
Tier 2: WCS, Bagley (GPP), Hield, Bogdan
Tier 3: Bjelica (GPP)
Good talk and good luck