NBA DFS – 11/21/2018

Huge 13 game slate today so let’s get started. I’ll try to keep it short and sweet for the both of us. Stay tuned to the news as always and adjust from there as there will probably be a lot of news breaking today.

IND @ CHA (-4) o/u 217

IND: The big news we need to know here is whether or not Dipo and Turner are playing. If Dipo is out it’s similar to last game as far as who to target. If you faded reke last time then you survived, but I still will go right back to him at hopefully lower ownership here with the $5400 price tag. Again big slate here so don’t have to force him in per se.

Tier 1: Sabonis (if Turner is out), Tyreke (GPP)
Tier 2: Bojan, Dipo (if he plays), Cory Joseph (if Dipo is out),Turner (if he plays)
Tier 3: Thad

CHA: Hernangomez is questionable so if he’s out I don’t mind going Zeller here because that locks him into 30 or so minutes. Kemba is still on fire, but still too expensive especially if Dipo emds up playing.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Kemba (GPP), Zeller (if Hernangomez is out)
Tier 3:

NO @ PHI (-3.5) o/u 236

NO: AD versus Joel. This is set up for a good matchup here, but maybe not the best for DFS. Neither have actually played that well against each other in the past so I don’t think it’s necessary to force either in. Jrue is in play here with Elfrid still out. Randle feels like chasing points at 7k, while Mirotic has either reverted to the Mirotic we used to know, or he’s due for some regression.

Tier 1: Jrue Holiday
Tier 2: Mirotic, Randle
Tier 3: AD, Moore

PHI: I like Embiid here more than AD and he’s cheaper while arguably playing better than him recently. Simmons is fairly priced here and Butler seems too cheap at only 7.1k. He hasn’t found his groove in Philly yet, but in a fast paced game like this he could get some extra peripheral stats to reach value here. No Fultz for this one so Shamet or McConnell could get some more run as well.

Tier 1: Simmons, Butler (GPP)
Tier 2: Embiid, Muscala, Chandler (GPP), Redick
Tier 3: Shamet

NY @ BOS (-14) o/u 217

NY: The Knicks switched up the starting 5 and competed well with Portland last night. I would think they stick with the same starters here. Vonleh is too cheap if that is the case at $4100. Kanter as well is worth a look at his price with him starting. THJ is the only backcourt play seeing consistent minutes, but at $7300 in a tough matchup I’d rather look elsewhere. The rest of the plays are all darts to me in this backcourt with Fizdale randomly switching them out it seems.

Tier 1: Vonleh
Tier 2: Kanter
Tier 3:

BOS: Blowout potential here so if you want to punt on Smart, Rozier, even Jaylen Brown, I don’t hate the plays. Hayward at 5.5k is intriguing a bit. Horford in a similar boat with the reduced price point. Kyrie is way up to 9k in easy fade territory for me.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Smart, Rozier, Brown
Tier 3: Theis

TOR @ ATL (+7) o/u 226

TOR: Leonard is most likely out for the back to back here. We have to look at Lowry, VanVleet, and Siakam as they all get the biggest bumps. Miles and OG are questionable so keep an eye on that. Delon Wright should get more run with Leonard out too and would get even more minutes if one of them is ruled out. Ibaka is in play again at the 6.3k tag. The Hawks are bad and the blowout potential always exists, but at least they are at home in this one.

Tier 1: Lowry, Ibaka, Siakam
Tier 2: VanVleet, Wright, Green
Tier 3:

ATL: Not a whole lot to like here. Len and Demon are at an even split for center minutes right now and John Collins is back in the mix. If word comes out Collins doesn’t have a minutes restriction than he could be worth a look. Trae is boom or bust and depending on how he’s playing will determine how much we see Lin. GPP only play for sure. Prince is cheap and not a terrible play at the price, but he hasn’t shown the upside for awhile.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Trae (GPP), Prince
Tier 3: Dedmon, Len

PHO @ CHI (-2) o/u 213

PHO: This game is really intriguing to me and could be worth a look to game stack. Booker if he is at point guard again I really like even with the price bump. Warren played 39 minutes with Ariza back and playing 41 minutes himself. He’s firmly in play. Ayton is too cheap here and worth a look too against a fellow rookie in Wendell Carter Jr.

Tier 1: Booker, Warren
Tier 2: Ayton
Tier 3:

CHI: Lots of plays on this side too. Wendell has been priced down recently due to his minutes fluctuating. Lavine under 8k is definitely in play against this poor Suns team. Holiday is getting plenty of minutes to pay off the 4.6k tag here. You could even look to Parker in this one although he feels too pricey even in this plus matchup.

Tier 1: LaVine, Holiday, Carter Jr.
Tier 2: Parker
Tier 3: Arcidiacono, Harrison

LAL @ CLE (+9) o/u 221

LAL: Lebron returns to his old team for the first time since leaving town for the second time. He’s just too pricey for me in what could be a blowout game. Ball has really been off recently yet I still want to have some exposure because he has such a high ceiling. Pope seems like a good punt play at $3500 while he’s getting minutes with Rondo still out. Ingram and Kuzma are in the don’t love don’t hate category for me here. Hart and Stephenson off the bench could also get some extra run in here if it does turn to a blowout.

Tier 1: Caldwell-Pope
Tier 2: Ingram, Kuzma, Ball (GPP), Hart
Tier 3: Lebron

CLE: Sexton is questionable here and if he misses Clarkson becomes a really good play. Thompson is relatively cheap still. Cedi is way down to $4300 and has some appeal to me now since that mitigates a lot of risk. Hood too is in a similar boat as him. No JR anymore so that opens the rotation a bit, but just a bit. May see a few more minutes to Korver because of that.

Tier 1: Clarkson (if Sexton is out)
Tier 2: Sexton, TT, Hood, Cedi
Tier 3: Nance

POR @ MIL (-6) o/u 226

POR: Coming off a tougher than should have been game in New York, the Blazers now take on the Bucks for the second time this year. In the last meeting McCollum went off for 40 real points while Lillard under performed with only 27.5 DK fpts. Lillard is too pricey here for me. Nurkic again is my favorite play here, especially while he is actually seeing consistent minutes. Don’t hate Turner here either who is locked into around 30 minutes a night with Harkless and Seth Curry out for the foreseeable future.

Tier 1: Nurkic
Tier 2: Turner
Tier 3: Stauskas, Aminu, McCollum

MIL: I like Bledsoe and Middleton more than Giannis here on a point per dollar standpoint. They get a much better matchup in the backcourt against Lillard and McCollum. Lopez is playing minutes in the low 30s and is relatively cheap still.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Bledsoe, Middleton, Lopez
Tier 3: Giannis, Brogdon

DEN @ MIN (-2) o/u 215

DEN: This game will most likely go overlooked, but there are still some great plays to be had. Jokic at $9700 stands out at the top in this one. He offers immense upside and if you want to pivot off the higher-priced studs at center is worth a look. Targeting centers against Towns is not usually a bad idea either. Murray seems a little pricey here while Harris now seems too cheap. I’ll still be avoiding Juancho and Morris for the most part. Millsap and/or Lyles should get a few extra minutes to match with the larger frontcourt. Don’t mind punting on Plumlee either if you need a cheap center.

Tier 1: Harris
Tier 2: Jokic (GPP)
Tier 3: Plumlee, Lyles, Millsap

MIN: I realize I’m forgetting the short and sweet part to this article… anyways KAT is in a great spot here and is too cheap with Butler no longer around. Saric is seeing his minutes trending up and is worth a shot on in a GPP, but the Thibs – Gibson connection still worries me. Roco should play big minutes as long as it’s competitive and is worth a look.

Tier 1: KAT
Tier 2: Saric (GPP), Roco, Teague
Tier 3:

DET @ HOU (-9) o/u 214

DET: This game in general is not teribly appealing to me. Drummond and BG are just not good enough value on this slate. Reggie and Galloway are a dart if you want somekne super low-owned.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Galloway, Reggie Jackson
Tier 3:

HOU: Not super interested here as well. All thes plays have upside, but you can find cheaper upsode elsewhere at the respective positions. Paul and Harden are fairly priced, but I’d rather wait to target them when they aren’t both healthy.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Capela, Ennis
Tier 3: Harden, Paul

BKN @ DAL (-5.5) o/u 215

BKN: Minutes are inconsistent so you have to assume that risk when rostering Brooklyn players. Russell stands out again as well as Dinwiddie a bit. Allem should also get good minutes matched up with Deandre here.

Tier 1: Russell, Allen
Tier 2: Dinwiddie
Tier 3:

DAL: Need to wait to see DSJ and Barea news here. If they are out then Donci looks like a great play. DJ I don’t hate in this spot, but again there are so many viable centers in this slate.

Tier 1: Doncic (if DSJ or Barea is out)
Tier 2: Finney-Smith, DJ
Tier 3: Barnes

MEM @ SA (-2.5) o/u 200

MEM: Low total in a slow game here. Not something appealing to me in a 13 game slate. JJJ is cheap still and has incredible upside if he stays out of foul trouble. Green is a dart if you want one here while he’s cheap and on a minutes restriction. I guess revenge narrative for Kyle Anderson is here too.

Tier 1: JJJ (GPP)
Tier 2: Green (GPP), Anderson
Tier 3:

SA: LMA and Gay are fairly cheap, but they stand out as great plays in this matchup. Nothing else really stands out to me.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: LMA, Gay
Tier 3:

SAC @ UTA (-9.5) o/u 218

SAC: Fox dissappointed last game and should be lower-owned for this one. His price is $300 more expensive too. WCS is way too cheap to me. Gobert is a good defender, but moreso in the lane deterring shots rather than defending in the post.

Tier 1: WCS, Fox
Tier 2: Hield
Tier 3:

UTA: Ingles has come down in price and is worth a look. Mitchell is intriguing and coming off a bad performance which actually increases my appeal in the pace up game here.

Tier 1: Mitchell (GPP)
Tier 2: Rubio, Ingles
Tier 3:

OKC @ GS (-1) o/u 221

OKC: Russ seems too cheap here with him being healthy. He’s my favorite play to pay up for with Embiid right there with him. PG got a nice decrease with Russ being back and also in play himself.

Tier 1: Russell
Tier 2: PG
Tier 3:

GS: We know the narrative here already. KD is too cheap with Dray and Steph out, but he has been playing bad of late. Still we can’t ignore him. Klay also has appeal here with the recent decrease in price and doesn’t get PG bothering him like KD.

Tier 1: KD (GPP), Klay
Tier 2:
Tier 3:

Good talk and good luck

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