Happy Thanksgiving plus 2. Nice manageable 7 game slate today so let’s get back into it.
HOU @ CLE (+9) o/u 210
HOU: On the second night of the back to back here and CP3 is already ruled out. Immediately that raises my appeal for Harden. This could be a get right game for Gordon as well who has been getting minutes, but not playing well. He should see a usage bump a bit. Capela has been rolling and is too cheap here based on his recent production.
Tier 1: Harden (GPP), Capela
Tier 2: Gordon, Tucker
Tier 3: Green, Clark
CLE: No one really stands out here on having a good matchup. They are all relatively cheap though. If Nwaba starts again he is my favorite play of the Cavs. He should get 30 minutes if he stays out of foul trouble and gets Harden defending him, which is the best matchup of the starters. Cedi has been playing better, but gets a tough matchup with Tucker here. TT has some upside here as he is always a double double threat.
Tier 1: Nwaba (as long as he is starting)
Tier 2: TT
Tier 3: Sexton, Clarkson
NO @ WAS (-1) o/u 239
NO: Highest total on the board tonight with a close spread. Davis is listed as questionable so we will need to pay attention to that. Wizards are not the best rebounding team so all 3 of the bigs are in play here. Jrue as well continues to be in play here with Elfrid on the shelf still.
Tier 1: AD, Mirotic, Randle, Jrue
Tier 2: Moore
Tier 3: Miller, Johnson
WAS: The Wizards at home get a bump. Wall is down to $8500 so he has a lot of appeal. Dwight is a game time decision and should he sit again you can give a bump to Markieff, Jeff Green, and Otto Porter. Oubre should get decent minutes here, but he keeps disappointing in these situations. At his price I’m okay avoiding him.
Tier 1: Wall, Beal, Morris (GPP if Howard is out)
Tier 2: Porter, Green, Satoransky
CHI @ MIN (-10.5) o/u 219
CHI: LaVine seems too cheap here at 7.8k. Outside of him and Parker it is hard to trust anyone in this rotation. Arcidiacono is a punt play at point if you need one who seems to have taken over the starting role for the time being. Holiday as well is up and down and just had a great game last night against Miami. All these guys I named off are in play, but they also could disappoint after they Lavine played 35 minutes last night and the rest played around 40 minutes. Oh and don’t forget the revenge narrative for LaVine.
Tier 1: LaVine
Tier 2: Holiday, Parker, Arcidiacono
Tier 3: Carter Jr.
MIN: KAT is coming up on price now, but is still worth a look. Teague is the other starter I have some interest in at 6k. Wiggins is a pass for me. Roco is getting plenty of minutes here too at 5.7k and has some appeal.
Tier 2: KAT, Teague, Roco, Rose
Tier 3: Gibson, Saric
DEN @ OKC (-5.5) o/u 216
DEN: Garry Harris is questionable for this one and if he is out Murray should get more usage. I like Murray already at his 6.3k price point so if Harris is out that only adds to my appeal. Not super high on anyone else here, but the Joker has come down in price enough that’s his on the radar a bit.
Tier 1: Murray
Tier 2: Joker, Millsap
OKC: Westbrook is always in play when he’s healthy and under 11k. That is the case today so he has to be looked at. PG is down to 8.3k now and has appeal for me now here. He offers a solid floor and decent ceiling, even with the usage drop playing with Russ. Adams at 6.6k is intriguing, but again Westbrook being back limits my appeal.
Tier 1: Westbrook
Tier 2: PG, Grant
Tier 3: Adams, Schroder
SA @ MIL (-9.5) o/u 226
SA: The back to back worries me a bit here with Popovich randomly resting people in the past. LMA is too cheap here though and has a great matchup inside with Lopez. If this game stays close then LMA, Gay, and Demar are all in play, but at the hint of a blowout I expect the starters to be pulled and rested.
Tier 1: LMA
Tier 2: Derozan, Gay, Mills
MIL: Spurs aren’t that good at defense this year, but they still gameplan against the best players. For that reason I don’t love Giannis at his current price point. Middleton and Bledsoe are fine plays, but again nothing I will necessarily be prioritizing.
Tier 2: Bledsoe, Middleton, Brogdon
Tier 3: Giannis
SAC @ GS (-6) o/u 225
SAC: WCS is too cheap here. He should get 30+ minutes here against the likes of Looney and Bell. Fox is coming back up in price, but is still making this team go and gets a good matchup here. Bogdan is only 4k and that may be the lowest price we get him for the rest of the year. His minutes are on the rise and he is playing well so you have to look there.
Tier 1: WCS, Fox (GPP), Bogdan
Tier 2: Hield, Bagley, Bjelica
GS: Dray and McKinnie are both out again for this one. That makes Durant and Klay solid plays once again. Bell got extra run in the blowout last night and is worth a look at only $3200. Cook is in play here too with Dray still out and GS needing him to handle the ball.
Tier 1: KD, Klay
Tier 2: Cook
Tier 3: Bell (GPP), Looney
BOS @ DAL (+2) o/u 213
BOS: The Celtics were able to rest last night in the blowout of Atlanta. Kyrie is back in play tonight. Horford is back in the lineup while Hayward is out. Baynes should still get the start and is a punt play at center if you need it.
Tier 1: Kyrie, Horford
Tier 2: Baynes, Morris (if he’s coming off the bench)
Tier 3: Smart (if Rozier sits)
DAL: Matthews and DSJ are listed questionable here so we need to pay attention to that news. Boston is a solid defensive team overall so I don’t particularly like anyone here. Doncic and DJ somewhat viable here, but still not prioritizing them tonight in this slate.
Tier 2: Doncic, DJ
Tier 3: Barnes
Good talk and good luck