NBA DFS – 11/25/2018

Sunday 6 game slate funday. Let’s break it down.

PHI @ BKN (+3) o/u 226

PHI: Embiid is the top play on the slate today. Brooklyn has struggled against centers all year so he should absolutely dominate. These teams did play earlier in Brooklyn and the Nets blew them out so Embiid will want to wash that taste out today. Butler is questionable so pay attention to that news. If he is out, Redick becomes a borderline lock as he’ll have to play 36-40 minutes. Simmons and Chandler will also get a bump. McConnell could get more minutes too and is worth a look at $3300. Shamet has already been playing solid minutes so it doesn’t give him much of a bump with Butler out, but he’s min priced already and worth a punt if you need it.

Tier 1: Embiid, Simmons/Redick (if Butler is out)
Tier 2: Simmons/Redick (if Butler plays), McConnell (if Butler is out), Chandler, Shamet, Muscala
Tier 3:

BKN: LeVert being out clears up some minutes in this rotation, but it is still inconsistent game to game. Russell is way up to $7600 even though he has struggled the last two games and played only 26 minutes in each. He is a fringe GPP play at this price tag. He shouldn’t have much ownership at all, but you need a ceiling game from him to reach value. For that reason Dinwiddie has more appeal to me here. Allen should push for closer to 30 minutes in this one as he is the only chance of stopping Embiid, but foul trouble could be a problem. Davis is worth a look if you think Allen ends up in foul trouble.

Tier 1: Dinwiddie, Allen (GPP)
Tier 2: Ed Davis, RHJ, Harris, Crabbe, Carroll
Tier 3: Russell (GPP)

NY @ MEM (-8.5) o/u 206

NY: Burke finally busted last game and Trier went off instead. That is the risk we run by rostering these Knicks guys. Vonleh did keep it rolling and now is up to $5300. He is still worth a look here even though the Grizz are a tough matchup. As long as he gets minutes he should be able to produce. Burke is worth a look in a bounceback spot, but we’ve seen Fizdale basically remove people from his rotations after one sub-par game so it is still a risk. Let’s not forget the narrative here as Fiz returns to Memphis for the first time after being fired. He will want to win so maybe that will make him tighten up his rotations a bit.

Tier 1: Vonleh (GPP), Hardaway (GPP)
Tier 2: Burke (GPP), Kanter, Mudiay
Tier 3: Trier (GPP)

MEM: Gasol is going to be fired up for this one and has been on a tear recently to only add to my appeal. I cannot see Gasol letting Fizdale come back into Memphis and get a win. He is priced up to $8900, but he may still be worth it. He offers a high floor and decent ceiling which not many players offer in this slate. Conley needs a look too. He has also been playing well of late and gets a good matchup against Mudiay. At $8100 he is fairly pricey, but the Knicks don’t have anyone that can guard him.

Tier 1: Conley, Gasol, Green
Tier 2: Anderson, JJJ
Tier 3: Mack

MIA @ TOR (-12) o/u 214

MIA: I have no real interest in the Heat here. Toronto is a great defensive team and there is blowout potential with the 12 point spread. If I were to play anyone it would be Richardson here.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Richardson (GPP)
Tier 3:

TOR: Again just not a lot of appeal here for me. The blowout potential could limit all the starters to 3 quarters and less than 30 minutes. If Jonas starts to matchup with Whiteside then he is worth a shot on in GPPs. Lowry has a bit of appeal, but I would rather pay up to Conley for $100 more.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Jonas (GPP), Lowry (GPP)
Tier 3: Leonard (GPP)

CHA @ ATL (+6.5) o/u 228

CHA: Solid chance MKG is back for this one which means this rotation just got a whole lot murkier. That will take minutes from Marvin, Lamb, and Bridges so my appeal for them will be limited now. Zeller isn’t a lock for 30+ minutes now with Hernangomez back so he isn’t much more than a punt play here. The Hawks do have a true center on the court most of the time between Dedmon and Len so that means Zeller or Willy should be on the court to counter at all times. Kemba has the best matchup here against Trae and Lin and is priced at $9800. He has the ceiling to pay off that price tag, but I don’t think I will end up with much of him because I’d rather prioritize Conley and Embiid over him.

Tier 1: Kemba (GPP)
Tier 2: Lamb (GPP), MKG (GPP)
Tier 3:

ATL: The Hawks are awful, but could actually keep this one competitive enough for the starters to get minutes. Lin is going to be a popular play for those that only look at the game logs, but with his price coming up he is an easy fade for me. He only gets minutes when Trae struggles or the Hawks get blown out. Kemba is not a great defender so I think Trae has great upside here and should be able to reach value or more as long as they can keep it somewhat competitive. Len and Dedmon are pretty much in a timeshare at center right now, but I give the edge to Dedmon if you are looking at playing one of them. Collins is back and got 30 minute last game. He is worth a look against Zeller and Marvin who are undersized and beatable.

Tier 1: Trae (GPP), Collins (GPP)
Tier 2: Dedmon
Tier 3: Bembry

UTA @ SAC (+4) o/u 218

UTA: Mitchell has already been ruled out for this one so Royce O’Neal should get the start. Jingles and Rubio get bumps here as they will handle more of the offensive load. Gobert is reasonably priced here at $7400 against WCS. He should play plenty here with the close spread and the Kings having several bigs in rotation to match up with. Crowder and Burks should get a bump here too with Mitchell out.

Tier 1: Gobert, Jingles
Tier 2: Rubio, Crowder, Burks
Tier 3: Favors, Royce

SAC: Fox is priced up to the point I don’t mind fading him. Hield and WCS remain cheap and in play here. Bagley has been playing well and getting more minutes here. He is worth a look as well while he is still under 5k.

Tier 1: WCS, Hield, Bagley (GPP)
Tier 2: Bogdanovic
Tier 3:

LAC @ POR (-4.5) o/u 227

LAC: Everyone is getting priced up on the Clippers now and they have a tough matchup with the Blazers. Harrell is still my favorite play here even at 7.3k. My hope is that he will be less owned because of the price bump. Gallinari is the other target for me here at $5800. He has upside that the price is not accounting for right now. Lou Will is a GPP only play, but with everyone healthy in this backcourt he will not be locked into as many minutes.

Tier 1: Harrell, Gallo
Tier 2: Lou Will (GPP)
Tier 3:

POR: Lillard is not going to make it into my lineups much just as a product of lineup construction. He is priced up and if I do pay up at point I would rather pay for Kemba who is only $200 more. C.J. is also a bit too pricey for me as I would rather go elsewhere. Nurkic on the other hand is fairly priced and could pay off his tag even in limited minutes. Aminu is too cheap here and is in play for me. If this game stays close it will only add to the upside. He should have no issue paying off this price tag.

Tier 1: Aminu 
Tier 2: Nurkic
Tier 3:

Good talk and good luck

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