Happy Monday everybody. Back on the grind with another great 7 game slate. Let’s get back to it.
MIN @ CLE (+6) o/u 217
MIN: Let’s start with KAT here who is coming off a monster game against the Bulls. He gets a matchup with TT who is an average defender. I don’t hate the play, but 10k just feels a bit too pricey for me when I can spend $900 more for KD. Still, neither of these teams play defense so he should be locked in for plenty of minutes and plenty of opportunity. Wiggins is intriguing here because of the narrative of playing against the team that drafted him. He also is coming off a 0-12 shooting night in 28 minutes of play from which he should bounceback from. Teague is another mid range guy I like here against the rookie Sexton.
Tier 1: KAT (GPP), Wiggins (GPP)
Tier 2: Teague, Roco
Tier 3: Saric
CLE: TT is up a bit to 6.1k, but should get plenty of run against the larger front court of the T-Wolves. KAT does not scare anyone so Tristan should be fine here. He is playing well and getting 30+ minutes a game so he definitely has appeal. Hood is cheap enough to gamble on in GPPs, but as we have seen he doesn’t have much floor. Nance could start in this one to match up with Gibson so let’s pay attention to that. If he does start I do like him at 5k. The other play here for me is Nwaba at only 3.7k. He played 38 minutes last game and took 16 shots. Now he didn’t make many, but the Cavs did win so I expect him to remain getting solid minutes. **update** Nwaba has been ruled out
Tier 1: TT, Nwaba
Tier 2: Hood, Sexton, Nance (if he starts)
Tier 3: Cedi
MIL @ CHA (+5) o/u 236
MIL: This game is supposed to stay fairly close according to the Vegas line so their is definite interest here. Starting with the most expensive play in the slate at 11.6k we get Giannis. He’s topped 73 fpts in two of his last three games so there is reason to consider him even at this price tag. With his recent form, and the fact that no one can match up with him on the Hornets, he needs heavy consideration here. Middleton has upside, but hasn’t shown it recently so at 7.5k I’m okay passing on him. Bledsoe has been playing well and has also come up in price. Brogdon has had back to back great shooting nights and it feels like chasing points to target him here. If Ersan is out again then Lopez get a nice bump with more consistent minutes against the beatable front court of Zeller and Frank the tank.
Tier 1: Giannis
Tier 2: Bledsoe, Brogdon, Lopez (if Ersan is out), Ersan (if he plays)
Tier 3: Middleton
CHA: If this game stays close it is going to be due a lot in part to Kemba. He has come down a bit in price to 9.4k and is worth a look here. It looked like MKG was going to play last game, but then he was ultimately ruled out. We’ll see if he plays tonight. If he does then Lamb, Bridges, and Marvin take a hit. Marvin played well against the Hawks last night and could parlay that here tonight at only 3.7k. Monk made it back into the rotation and it looks like Kaminsky has taken over the backup center duties. With Charlotte on the back to back I could see this not staying as close as Vegas is implying. If that is the case then Frank, Monk, and Bridges could all be sneaky plays.
Tier 1: Kemba (GPP), Lamb (if MKG is out)
Tier 2: Frank, Marvin Williams, Lamb (if MKG plays)
Tier 3: Bacon, Monk
HOU @ WAS (+2.5) o/u 225
HOU: Waiting on the CP3 news here to determine how much I like Harden and Gordon. Harden is priced to a point where if Paul plays I’m okay not playing him. Gordon is in a similar boat for me. I don’t have much faith that he continues to play well here and CP3 being back will take a couple minutes and usage from him if he plays. The Wizards are one of the worst rebounding teams so Tucker is appealing at only $3900 especially if Howard is out. Capela is also in play and is my favorite play on Houston today regardless if CP3 suit up or not.
Tier 1: Harden (if CP3 is out), Tucker, Capela
Tier 2: CP3, Gordon, Ennis
WAS: Wall is priced up here and also listed as questionable. If he’s out then Beal and Porter become borderline lock plays while Sato and Rivers get a bump as well. Howard is questionable too and with him out Porter seems to be benefiting the most in the recent games. Markieff and Green also hit my radar a bit here if Howard is out, but they haven’t been doing much of late.
Tier 1: Beal, Porter (as long as Howard is out), Satoransky (if Wall is out)
Tier 2: Wall, Rivers (if Wall is out)
Tier 3: Markieff, Green
SA @ CHI (+6) o/u 216
SA: Not a lot of love here for the Spurs. LMA has a great matchup here with Jabari and Wendell and should be able to dominate inside. He could be a fairly low-owned play here too with him dudding against the Bucks. Gay isn’t in a bad spot either, I just won’t find myself getting to him much with Jabari only $100 more.
Tier 1: LMA
Tier 2: Gay
CHI: Parker has really stepped up with Hutchinson out of the rotation. Part of it is due to the massive amount of minutes he’s been playing of late. He’s in a great spot here against the Spurs who have been vulnerable to power forwards this year. Holiday has also stepped up of late and is intriguing. I don’t see him still getting double digit rebounds, but he’s still worth a look here since he’s under 5k and playing heavy minutes. Wendell got back into the 30 minutes, but didn’t do much with it. He is worth a look still since he’s so cheap. LaVine is under 8k again and is still in play here. He just dominates the usage and one day will actually make shots and blow through his projections.
Tier 1: Parker (if Hutchinson is out), Holiday (GPP), LaVine
Tier 2: Carter
BOS @ NO (-2) o/u 228
BOS: This is a pace up game for the Celtics. Brown has been ruled out so that opens up minutes for Smart and Rozier most likely. Horford is too cheap and will most likely be super chalky because of it. Hard not to like him here. Kyrie is fairly priced here and has been in good form so is worth a look. Hayward seems a bit too cheap with the matchup himself. Brown being out should bump him up a couple minutes too. If choosing between Smart and Rozier here I like Rozier a bit more because I think he will be lower owned.
Tier 1: Rozier, Smart, Horford, Kyrie
Tier 2: Hayward
Tier 3: Morris, Tatum
NO: AD should be back so that reduces my appeal across the board for the other Nola players. This is a pace down spot for them and Boston is a solid defensive team all around so with AD in I don’t mind not having as much exposure here.
Tier 1: AD (GPP)
Tier 2: Mirotic, Randle, Jrue
IND @ UTA (-5.5) o/u 208
IND: News broke for us and we get Dipo out again while both Sabonis and Turner are active. Turner I don’t mind here at his price while Sabonis is a bit too expensive for me. The Pacers blew the Jazz out of the gym in their matchup a week ago so they will be confident from that at the least.
Tier 1: Turner (GPP)
Tier 2: Tyreke, Sabonis, Collison, Thad
UTA: Utah is on the second night of their back to back after blowing out the Kings. A week ago when these teams played no one on either side really got a full allotment of minutes since it got out of hand fairly quickly. This one should stay closer so I do have some interest. Rubio is my favorite play here against Collison and with Mitchell out he will have the ball in his hands even more. Burks is worth a look while Ingles gets a bump as well. Gobert seems like a fairly safe play here and I don’t mind firing him up again.
Tier 1: Rubio
Tier 2: Gobert, Jingles, Burks, Crowder
Tier 3: Favors
ORL @ GS (-8) o/u 215
ORL: Vooch is too cheap here. He is coming off a huge game so a let down is possible, but his price has come down considerably. With Dray out the Warriors ahve a true center on the court more often so that raises my appeal even more. Augustin and Fournier are also too cheap here and have some appeal. Simmons is also somewhat intriguing to me as well at $3200 if you need a GPP dart.
Tier 1: Vooch, Augustin, Fournier
Tier 2: Gordon
Tier 3: Simmons (GPP), Isaac (GPP)
GS: No Dray or Steph again tonight so we have to immediately bump up KD and Klay to really good to great plays. Cook as well gets6 a nice bump here and is reasonably priced at 5.1k. Outside of those three you can gamble on any of the other bigs to come through for you. Bell, Jerebko, and Looney will all battling for backup center and forward minutes. Jones and Jerebko get the edge for me, but minutes fluctuate between all 4 bigs enough to the point that I won’t be priortizing any of them as core plays.
Tier 1: Klay, KD
Tier 2: Jerebko, Jones, Cook
Tier 3: Bell, Looney
Good talk and good luck