NBA DFS – 11/28/2018

10 games now right when we were getting used to the smaller slates. Let’s go

ATL @ CHA (-12.5) o/u 233

ATL: Back to back here for the Hawks and back to playing a familiar foe in the Hornets. Trae has been playing better recently so he is worth another look. Collins as well is back and should have confidence against this smaller front court. There is some blowout potential here so these plays are not going to be prioritized by me. Len might be my favorite play here just because he is so cheap and doesn’t need much run to reach value.

Tier 1: Prince (GPP)
Tier 2: Len, Trae, Collins, Bembry, Dedmon
Tier 3:

CHA: Marvin loves playing against his old team and his price is up to 4.5k since they just played and he had a rare decent game against a team not named the Hawks. He should be a popular play and for good reason. Kemba’s price is coming down now a bit since he hasn’t had a huge game in awhile. Again with the blowout potential I don’t feel like you need to squeeze Kemba in your lineup. Monk has made it back into the rotation now and worth a look. He gets a bump in the blowout.

Tier 1: Marvin Williams
Tier 2: Kemba, Zeller, Kaminsky, Monk, Lamb
Tier 3: Batum, MKG, Bridges

NY @ PHI (-12.5) o/u 227

NY: Back to back here for New York in a game that has all the makings of a blowout. Knicks are hard to trust right now at any position outside of Hardaway and Kanter somewhat. Even Kanter is hard to be completely confident in as the only reason he is getting minutes is because they have no other competent big guy. Burke, Mudiay, and Trier all have shown they have upside and Fizdale is going to ride the hot hand. Trying to guess who is a complete gamble and something that isn’t worth wasting much time on in a ten game slate. If you want to roster one I would go with Trier because he has the hot hand for now, he’s the cheapest of the three, and in the blowout I think he gets the extra run.

Tier 1: Trier (GPP)
Tier 2: Hardaway, Kanter, Vonleh, Burke, Mudiay
Tier 3:

PHI: On paper this is a great matchup for the Sixers. For DFS though I don’t see myself paying up for these guys. There is upside here, but with Philly being at home I don’t feel confident that the starters will see the court after the 3rd quarter. That being said I will be looking elsewhere to spend up. You can take a shot on the bench players if you need to punt a position.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Simmons, Butler, Shamet, Muscala, Chandler
Tier 3: Embiid, Redick

UTA @ BKN (+3.5) o/u 217

UTA: Not sure what’s up with Utah this year. They need to figure it out sooner rather than later else they are going to end up in the lottery. Mitchell should be back for this one and is fairly priced at 7.3k. He has huge upside and with no one else really pulling their weight offensively I could see him jack up 25+ shots here. Gobert has a good matchup here with Allen but we also get him at an elevated price point. He offers a good floor, but not enough upside at the price for me to have much appeal. Jingles has $5900 has me interested a bit, while Rubio up at $6900 will have me looking elsewhere.

Tier 1: Mitchell (GPP)
Tier 2: Gobert, Jingles, Crowder
Tier 3: Rubio, Favors

BKN: Russell made me look stupid last week as he went off for 38, 8, and 8 and hit the ceiling game I mentioned was needed at his $7.6k price tag. His salary didn’t change and I won’t be trying to get him here once again as he is still too expensive. Dinwiddie also played well last game and is now at $6200. He is not a terrible play, you just lose some upside while getting a higher floor. Allen at $5500 is a priced too cheap to me. Gobert is not a great defender in the post, and with a matchup like Gobert you need a big on the floor to counter him. Allen should get 30+ minutes again here in a very nice spot that hopefully most people will shy away from.

Tier 1: Allen
Tier 2: Dinwiddie, Russell (GPP), RHJ
Tier 3: Harris, Crabbe

CHI @ MIL (-13.5) o/u 228

CHI: Another game with legit blowout potential concerns. Not going to be targeting anyone here in a ten game slate when their is better value in games with less blowout risk. Now if you load up on the blowout game and it stays close you should have a leg up on the rest of the field. I won’t be going that route today though.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: LaVine (GPP), Parker, Holiday
Tier 3:

MIL: Now we have seen big games from the Buck’s starting unit in limited play time in the past, but everyone is also priced up because they actually had a couple competitive games recently. If I go anywhere here it will be to Bledsoe or the bench players. Giannis is not on my radar at all at 12k and Middleton is too pricey for his recent form. Look to Sterling Brown, Donte, Deli, maybe Thon, etc. if you want to get action in on the Bucks.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Bledsoe, Brown, Donte, Ersan
Tier 3: Deli, Thon, Lopez

SA @ MIN (-4.5) o/u 217

SA: Another game with not much appeal. LMA is fairly priced at 8.3k and should get plenty of run against KAT in a plus matchup. Demar is fine if you want to go there, but I would rather play Jrue and save $100. We’ll get to that game eventually… Gay under 6k has some appeal here too. Other than that it’s a bunch of low-priced low ceiling plays that don’t garner much attention. White is the only one worth a thought at 3.5k. He fell out of the rotation quickly after joining it but did play 24 minutes the last game.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: LMA, Forbes, Gay
Tier 3: White (GPP), Demar

MIN: Minnesota is figuring out life without Jimmy Butler right now. Wiggins has not responded well and his price has dropped to $5600 as a reflection of that. KAT has some appeal at $9400. Teague as well has been playing consistent since coming back and should get 35-38 minutes as long as this game stays close. His price is hovering around the 6k mark still and is a pivot off Dinwiddie if you don’t want to go there.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: KAT, Teague, Roco
Tier 3: Wiggins, Saric, Taj

DAL @ HOU (-6.5) o/u 218

DAL: Waiting on some injury news here as Doncic and DSJ are currently questionable. If Doncic is out that will really open up things. If DSJ is out then the backcourt gets a little less crowded. Barea at 5k is a GPP only play for me, but does get a bump if DSJ is out. Matthews is too cheap for what should be a game he gets 30+ minutes in. DJ and Barnes are both fairly priced here and both become better plays if Doncic is out.

Tier 1: DJ, Barnes (if Doncic is out), Matthews
Tier 2: Doncic, Barnes (if Doncic plays, Barea (GPP), DSJ (if he plays), Finney-Smith
Tier 3: Harris

HOU: Harden blew up last game so hopefully you had him in your lineups. If CP3 is out again he will be hard to avoid once again. Gordon is now up to $5800 after having back to back good shooting nights. He is very reliant on scoring so I am not super high on him regardless if CP3 plays or not at this price point. Tucker and Capela also got price bumps and are now Tier 2 plays against the Mavs who are a lot better than the Wizards at defense.

Tier 1: Harden, CP3 (GPP if he plays)
Tier 2: Tucker, Capela, Gordon, House (GPP)
Tier 3: Clark

CLE @ OKC (-13) o/u 216

CLE: Yet another game with blowout potential… this is becoming a theme today. I never like projecting blowouts, but between this one and the aforementioned other 3 potential blowouts, this one has a higher chance to stay more competitive in my opinion. Nance starting or not is going to be the news to look out for here. If he starts then you can fire him up, but if he’s back off the bench I will be avoiding. Nwaba is questionable and is worth a look at 3.7k with him being the only competent defender. I like playing point guards against Russ, but I also never feel confident rostering Sexton. TT is getting up there in price and I don’t like playing centers against Adams, but his minutes have been locked on of late. Oh also I forgot to mention, Hill and Dekker could possibly return today to only muddy up the rotation even more.

Tier 1: Nance (if he starts), Nwaba (GPP if he starts)
Tier 2: Sexton, TT
Tier 3: Cedi, Hood

OKC: Westbrook under 11k is always going to need some consideration, Of the high-priced studs on the slate I just don’t find myself getting to Russ much. PG is also fairly priced for this matchup and needs some consideration. He also is in no man’s land where as a product of roster construction I won’t be getting very much exposure to him. Grant is still starting and still getting 30+ minutes a night so needs a look as well.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Russell, PG, Grant, Adams
Tier 3:

WAS @ NO (-6) o/u 241

WAS: Wooo the game we all were waiting for. Now with this one being projected close it will probably end up being a blowout and ruining the slate. Regardless, this is going to be the game to target. Dwight is out so Markieff and Porter get a bump. Beal is priced up to 8k now but still has appeal in this 241 total. I like Wall here, but I also like Jrue at a cheaper price point on the other side. Also Jrue is not a bad defender at all so that lowers my appeal slightly and gives the edge for me to Jrue.

Tier 1: Morris, Beal, Wall (GPP), Porter
Tier 2: Green, Oubre, Rivers (GPP)
Tier 3: Bryant, Sato

NO: AD should be the most popular play in this slate. The Wizards are awful at defense and one of the worst rebounding teams. This should play right into AD’s favor. Jrue can’t be overlooked here either as he is in a great spot as well. Mirotic and Randle are both in play, and if I had to pick one I’d go with the discount and take Randle. Miller has played 30+ minutes over the last 2 and is a viable punt play at only $3100. Love almost all the plays here in what is sure to be a popular stack. As of right now before any news is out, I will be right here eating the chalk.

Tier 1: AD, Jrue, Randle (GPP), Mirotic, Miller
Tier 2: Moore
Tier 3:

ORL @ POR (-8) o/u 215

ORL: The price for Vooch has come up, but he still needs consideration just because of the way he has been playing. Simmons got the start last game and played 28 minutes. At only $3200 I don’t mind the punt play here. Gordon is questionable here and if he sits it’s going to make Isaac a very chalky play.

Tier 1: Vooch (GPP), Isaac (if Gordon is out)
Tier 2: Simmons, Ross, Augustin
Tier 3:

POR: Nurkic is questionable here and if he sits that should open up playtome for Collins and Leonard at center. They are both 4k. I give the edge to Zach Collins if I’m choosing between them. McCollum is too pricey here for me. Lillard is coming down and has a good matchup, but I won’t get him in many lineups again with Jrue cheaper and in a better spot to me.

Tier 1: Collins (if Nurk is out)
Tier 2: Lillard, Leonard (if Nurk is out), Aminu
Tier 3:

PHO @ LAC (-12) o/u 228

PHO: Phoenix on a back to back here in a tough matchup with the Clips. Point Booker is playkmg well and if this game stays close it’s going to have a lot to do with his play. Ayton is a little too expensive for me and in a ten game slate I think we can find better value elsewhere. Warren should get plenty of minutes here in a plus matchup with Gallinari or Harris.

Tier 1: Warren (GPP)
Tier 2: Booker, Ayton, Holmes (GPP), Crawford
Tier 3: Ariza

LAC: Clips have a great matchup here and have been priced up for it. There is risk of blowout potential here once again so just be wary of that. Harrell looks like a great play, especially in cash. As long as he gets 30+ minutes he will get the production. Harris is too expensive for me even in the plus matchup. Gallinari has some appeal here for me. With everyone healthy in the backcourt I will most likely avoid it altogether.

Tier 1: Harrell (GPP)
Tier 2: Gallinari
Tier 3: Harris

Good talk and good luck

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