NBA DFS – 12/1/2018

Starting off December with a nice 6 game slate. Let’s get it

BKN @ WAS (-6.5) o/u 228

BKN: Pace up spot here against an undersized Washington team. Now they are coming off an overtime game where several players logged high 30s to mid 40s in minutes. Not super worried about that here as most plays are cheap enough to take that risk. With Howard out I am a little skeptical of Allen’s minutes, but $5400 is too cheap for his recent production. As long as Joe Harris is out there will be more minutes for Russell, Dinwiddie, and Napier. Carroll also should get good minutes here and is too cheap at $3400.

Tier 1: Carroll, Allen, Napier (GPP)
Tier 2: Russell, Dinwiddie, RHJ, Crabbe, Davis (GPP)
Tier 3:

WAS: Jeff Green is a game time decision tonight. If he sits then I think Thomas Bryant could get a few extra minutes. Bryant played 19 minutes last night, but that was in part to needing him to try and guard Embiid. If he can get close to that 20 minutes mark he has a lot of appeal. Markieff had a terrible game last night and is in a perfect bounceback spot here. His price is up so it’s not a must play. Wall and Beal are so close in price now that if I go to one I’ll be paying the extra $900 for Wall. Porter should be back here and is a great play that should be well rested.

Tier 1: Wall, Beal, Porter (GPP), Morris
Tier 2: Bryant, Oubre
Tier 3: Sato

GS @ DET (+5) o/u 230

GS: The return of Steph is the big news here. He is cheap as long as he doesn’t have a minutes limitation. KD is under 11k and worth a look too here, even though he gets a bump down from Curry returning. Looney may be the beneficiary of playing against Drummond and get a few extra minutes if you need to go there.

Tier 1: Curry
Tier 2: KD
Tier 3: Looney

DET: BG and Drummond are the main players to consider here. Both should have success with Dray still out and both firmly in play. The backcourt is hit or miss and could even get more crowded if Kennard plays. Bullock has seen the most consistent minutes and is the only guy I’ll look at as long as Kennard isn’t in the rotation.

Tier 1: BG, Drummond
Tier 2: Bullock
Tier 3: Stanley

TOR @ CLE (+14) o/u 215

TOR: It hard to picture a scenario in which this game stays close. Not much appeal here for me for any of the starters. I suppose Siakam could get run regardless, but still his price is too high for me. Look to the bench if you want anyone here.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: VanVleet, Delon
Tier 3: Miles

CLE: TT is hard to avoid here at $5800. He’s been getting minutes and been really consistent outside a dud against Steven Adams. Burks had decent run since the game turned to a blowout. If you project this to be a blowout then you can join me in having a bit of exposure to him.

Tier 1: TT
Tier 2: Burks
Tier 3:

BOS @ MIN (-2.5) o/u 217

BOS: Horford will be back here tonight while Jaylen is doubtful. Horford has a decent matchup with KAT, but not necesarily a priority. Smart should get extended minutes and is a cheap value play if you need it. Other than that when this team is healthy I don’t really like anyone

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Horford, Smart, Kyrie
Tier 3: Hayward, Tatum, Morris

MIN: KAT needs consideration here and is pretty much the only target for me from Minnesota. Roco is priced up to the point I’m okay passing on him. Teague has some appeal as he the best matchup against Kyrie.

Tier 1: KAT (GPP)
Tier 2: Teague, Roco
Tier 3:

CHI @ HOU (-12) o/u 219

CHI: Wendell Carter finally stayed out of foul trouble. He’s too cheap to the point that his price takes into consideration his foul issues. Not super high on anyone else. Lavine and Carter are fine, but if you play them then you are betting this game stays close.

Tier 1: Wendell Carter
Tier 2: Lavine, Parker, Holiday
Tier 3:

HOU: Keep an eye on CP3 here because if he sits then Harden needs to be fired up. Capela is playing great right now and is worth a look with or without CP3. Everyone else is priced up to CP3 being out prices.

Tier 1: Capela
Tier 2: Harden, CP3
Tier 3:

IND @ SAC (+2) o/u 225

IND: Sabonis is questionable so keep an eye out for that. If he sits then Turner is a borderline must play with O’Quinn a punt play. If he plays it’s a great spot in a nice pace up game against a bigger front court where he could get closer to 30 minutes. Tyreke Evans has the narrative in this one and is worth a look if you like that stuff. Collison also spent time with the Kings, but is now priced up to $5400 where I don’t mind avoiding.

Tier 1: Sabonis (if he plays), Tyreke (GPP), Turner (if Sabonis is out)
Tier 2: Turner (if Sabonis plays), Collison
Tier 3: Joseph

SAC: Bagley is questionable with back spasms so another thing to watch for in this game. WCS is still underpriced here and worth a look. Bogdan is seeing minutes regardless and looks to be taking over a bigger offensive load. Fox should be looked at still since he’s under 7k.

Tier 1: Bagley (if he’s in), WCS (GPP), Bogdan (GPP), Bjelica (if Bagley is out)
Tier 2: Fox
Tier 3:

Good talk and good luck

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