NBA DFS – 12/4/2018

Happy Tuesday and happy 5 game slate. Let’s get started

CHI @ IND (-8.5) o/u 210

CHI: Going to be interesting to see the rotation with the new coach of the Bulls, Jim Boylen. His first move as coach was putting Jabari back on the bench in favor of Markannen. That already makes me not as confident in the minutes for anyone now. That being said, Markannen at 5.4k is not a terrible price to pay if we think he could get 30 or so minutes.

Tier 1: Markannen (GPP), Carter
Tier 2: LaVine, Holiday
Tier 3: Payne (GPP)

IND: The Bulls are not a great rebounding team so Turner and Sabonis are in play. Collison is price up too much for me here. Reke eventually has to have a big game, and it’ll probably be now since I probably won’t be getting much exposure to him..

Tier 1: Sabonis (GPP)
Tier 2: Turner, Tyreke (GPP)
Tier 3: Collison

ORL @ MIA (-2.5) o/u 209

ORL: The long road trip worries me a bit, and with so many other viable plays I don’t find myself landing on many Magic players. Paying up for Vooch is hard with so many value options at the position. Only Lillard is priced higher, and I’d rather pay up for him

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Vooch, Gordon, Augustin, Ross (GPP)
Tier 3: Fournier, Simmons

MIA: Miami is getting healthy this game so my appeal is low especially on the backcourt. Whiteside has upside here even with the $7700 price tag. He is still risky as minutes are never guaranteed. Olynyk has seen extended run over the last 2, and if James Johnson sits from his illness it only adds to the appeal here.

Tier 1: Whiteside (GPP), Olynyk (GPP)
Tier 2: Richardson
Tier 3: Bam

POR @ DAL (-2) o/u 220

POR: Lillard seems too pricey, but if you have to pay up for someone he’s going to be my guy. I still like Nurkic here even after going over the 7k mark finally. Turner should be back so that limits the upside for Harkless whonhad a decent game last time out and is still starting. McCollum is too pricey for me here although if you don’t pay up for Lillard it makes sense to consider him.

Tier 1: Lillard, Nurkic
Tier 2: McCollum, Harkless, Turner, Aminu
Tier 3:

DAL: Not a whole lot to like for me here. Unless news comes out with people sitting, the only player I want to target to Doncic. He can fill the stat sheet any given game and at 7k he still has upside.

Tier 1: Doncic (GPP)
Tier 2: DJ, Wesley
Tier 3:

SA @ UTA (-6) o/u 214

SA: Normally this would be a game to avoid altogether, but on a 5 game slate we have to consider these teams. Still keeping it short and sweet here, the only play I really am considering is LMA. He’s just a little underpriced. Now the Spurs do play tomorrow so the random rest from Popovich does worry me somewhat.

Tier 1: LMA
Tier 2: Demar, Bertans, Gay
Tier 3: White (GPP)

UTA: Rubio is cheaper than Collison on this slate somehow so I can’t see me jumping off him. Jingles is super cheap yet hasn’t done much recently. Crowder is a target here as well with the Spurs struggling to guard the 4s this season. Mitchell is way to expensive here for me. With the way he’s played this year he should be closer to low 7k high 6k range.

Tier 1: Rubio, Jingles (GPP), Crowder
Tier 2: Favors, Gobert
Tier 3:

SAC @ PHO (+6.5) o/u 226

SAC: Bagley has been ruled out for this one now. Last game we saw Justin Jackson play more 4 while Bogdan, Fox, WCS, and Hield all soaked up his minutes. My favorite plays here are Bogdan and WCS. Fox is in a good spot too, but his price is up which lowers my appeal.

Tier 1: WCS, Bogdan, Hield (GPP)
Tier 2: Fox, Shump
Tier 3: Bjelica

PHO: I’m not super high on Jackson today even though it is a good spot. Be could see 36+ minutes here in a fast-paced matchup which is hard to argue against. I just am not super confident in him. I like Ariza for a bit more who’ll get just as much run if stays competitive. Holmes though might be my favorite play here for value. Ayton of course has to be looked at too in this great spot.

Tier 1: Holmes, Ariza, Ayton
Tier 2: Jackson (GPP), Okobo
Tier 3: Bridges

Good talk and good luck

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