NBA DFS – 12/11/2018

Crazy slate yesterday with all the news and value that opened up. Hopefully you did better than I did.. anyways let’s get back to it with a small 3 game slate

POR @ HOU (-6.5) o/u 219

POR: This is looking like the game to target at first look on this three game slate. Lillard has a tough matchup with CP3, but in a 3 game slate raw points become more important and he should still have one of the highest totals on the board. I never like paying for McCollum, but he is in play here on the 3 slate as well. Aminu is too cheap with him scoring 32.5+ DK fantasy points in 4 of the last 5. Rockets run small often so he should play plenty of minutes.

Tier 1: Aminu, Nurkic
Tier 2: Lillard, McCollum, Turner
Tier 3: Collins, Harkless

HOU: CP3 and Harden look like hard fades for me. Harden is the most expensive play on the board coming in $1000 more than Lillard at 10.7k. Anytime he is under 11k he has to be considered. Capela is worth a look too even though he hasn’t had a great game in awhile. For that reason he’s more a Tier 2 play for me especially when I can save $200 and play Nurkic on the other side.

Tier 1: CP3, Harden
Tier 2: Capela, Tucker, Ennis
Tier 3:

PHO @ SA (-12.5) o/u 218

PHO: The Spurs have not been that good defensively this year, but the back to back for the Suns worries me in terms of a possible blowout. They also just played the Clippers to an overtime game last night to add on a few more minutes of run. It’s going to be hard for me to roster anyone here. Ayton is relatively cheap and worth a look I suppose, although my favorite play is going to be Holmes. Holmes will get run regardless of the score so he’s safer in this one. Ariza and Jackson should still get 30+ minutes here with Warren most likely still on a minutes restriction.

Tier 1: Holmes (GPP)
Tier 2: Ariza, Josh Jackson, Ayton, Melton
Tier 3: Okobo, Bridges

SA: Popovich is not one to leave his starters in on either side of the blowout. He will look to sit LMA and Gay the first chance he gets so they are the riskiest plays here unless you think it stays close. Derozan is risky too especially with his price tag being inflated to $9200. It is hard to see him getting more than 30 minutes in this one. Keep an eye on the status of Bertans and Cunningham. If they are ruled out then Poeltl becomes interesting. He should get 20+ minutes depending on how competitive this game stays.

Tier 1: Forbes (GPP), White (GPP), Poeltl (GPP), Bertans (GPP if he plays)
Tier 2: Derozan, LMA, Gay
Tier 3:

TOR @ LAC (+4.5) o/u 226

TOR: So I’m coming back to this game and reevaluating after running some numbers last night and seeing the Raptors aren’t as good defensively on the road as we’d assume.. Lowry is cheap enough now to where I will have some exposure in GPPs. He has been awful of late, but he has to bounceback one of these days. Kawhi is in a great spot in regards to matchup as neither Harris or Gallo will be able to guard him. His price is just not too attractive. Siakam is a fairly safe play here but his price doesn’t offer much room for upside. I think Ibaka will get the majority of center minutes against Harrell even if Boban and Jonas start in this one. Last thing to note is that the Raptors are on the front end of a back to back here so pay attention to possible rest for players.

Tier 1: Lowry (GPP), Ibaka, Leonard
Tier 2: Siakam, Jonas (GPP), Green, VanVleet
Tier 3:

LAC: Lou Will exited early last night so that could open up some extra minutes in the backcourt if he misses the game tonight. That would give SGA, Beverley, and Bradley a boost. This isn’t a great matchup for anyone as the Raptors are a good defensive team from top to bottom. **Update here because it isn’t as bad of a matchup as I thought outside of small forward against Kawhi.. If Boban gets the start he is worth a GPP dart with his $3800 price tag. If this game stays competitive it will be because of Harris, Gallo, and/or Harrell most likely. Harris is my favorite play of those three and it makes sense to run him back with someone on the Raptors side because if Harris plays well that means this will be a competitive game which leads to a full complement of minutes for the other side. Hopefully that made sense…

Tier 1: Harris (GPP), Boban (if he starts GPP), Gallo
Tier 2: Harrell, SGA/Beverley (bump up if Lou Will is out), Lou Will (GPP if he plays)
Tier 3:

Good talk and good luck