NBA DFS – 12/13/2018

Happy Friday eve the 13th. 4 game slate.. let’s get it

LAL @ HOU (-5.5) o/u 223

LAL: Houston has actually played decent defense at home and are playing at a slow pace this year making this not a great matchup for the Lakers. Lebron is going to be matched up against Tucker in this one which means Kuzma is going to have Gordon or Harden on him. Ball is too cheap again here and in play even though it isn’t a great matchup against CP3. Hart too should get 30+ minutes, but he’s also not a high usage player and will have the task of trying to slow down Harden.

Tier 1: Lebron, Ball (GPP)
Tier 2: Hart, KCP, Chandler, Kuzma (GPP)
Tier 3: McGee (GPP)

HOU: Now on the other end this is a great matchup for the Rockets. Harden is $100 cheaper than the King, but he gets a pace up matchup at home. CP3 came way up after having a good game last time out, but Harden dominates usage while he is on the court so that leaves little room for upside at his price tag. Capela has been losing some minutes to Nene, but is still a great play on this 4 game slate. Ennis is out for this one so GG and House should get some run. Brandon Knight is also set to make his debut after being out for almost 2 years. I do have some interest in him and will have some exposure in GPPs.

Tier 1: Capela, Harden
Tier 2: CP3, Knight (GPP), Gordon (GPP), GG, Tucker
Tier 3:

 

LAC @ SA (-2) o/u 223

LAC: The Clippers get a much better matchup tonight after getting smacked by the Raptors in their last game. Lou Will is still out for this one so the guard rotation should open up a bit for Bradley, SGA, and Beverley. The Spurs are better defensively at home, but this is still a pretty good matchup. I expect this game to stay competitive and Tobias is going to be the first player I target here. SGA and Beverley will be my next favorite plays with Lou being out. This is a Boban revenge game for anyone who wants a narrative. I can’t really see him get much time though especially if the Spurs start LMA at center.

Tier 1: Tobias
Tier 2: SGA, Gallo, Harrell
Tier 3: Beverley, Boban

SA: Honestly I was somewhat surprised the Spurs actually did what they were supposed to do and blowout the Suns. Let’s see if they can go back to back against the Clips. Forbes has had back to back 30+ minutes and good games. I still don’t have confidence in him though and don’t expect that play to continue. LMA probably has the best matchup at center, but Derozan and Gay are in plus matchups themselves against Bradley and Tobias respectively. I like all three in this one especially if it indeed does stay competitive and they can get their full minutes.

Tier 1: LMA, Derozan, Gay
Tier 2: Forbes, White
Tier 3: Mills, Poeltl

CHI @ ORL (-4.5) o/u 209

CHI: The Bulls are getting healthy now which means they are losing their appeal in DFS. Dunn and Portis will most likely be on a minutes restriction again, but if you want to gamble on one I’d lean toward Dunn who only has to beat out Arcidiacono for minutes. Wendell and LaVine seem like they should get 30 minutes regularly still so they are in play here for the moment.

Tier 1: LaVine, Carter Jr. 
Tier 2: Dunn (GPP), Markkannen, Holiday
Tier 3: Portis (GPP)

ORL: Both of these teams are bad so it should be a good game. Vooch is one of my favorite plays, if not my favorite play of this slate. His price has come down since he hasn’t been getting as much run in blowout scenarios, so this is a nice spot for him to see full minutes and get back to 50 burgers. Fournier and Simmons are questionable for this game so follow that to see if they are in or out. If they are out then Isaac and Ross should get more run and viable plays. Gordon has been playing well, but I just can’t get myself to pay up to $7800 for him with Kuzma, Harris, and LMA all cheaper and in just as good of spots.

Tier 1: Vooch
Tier 2: Isaac/Ross (if Simmons/Fournier sit), Augustin
Tier 3:

DAL @ PHO (+7) o/u 211

DAL: Barea may be out for this one after spraining his ankle last night so that would bump up Brunson and Devin Harris. DSJ I assume will be out again so Brunson should still be starting. He struggled last game, but should bounce back here against a weak Phoenix team, especially if Barea is out. Deandre is in a great spot here as Ayton is getting a reputation of not playing defense. Dirk should make his debut soon so that’s another piece of news to watch out for. As of right now I am assuming he’s not playing..

Tier 1: DJ, Brunson (if Barea and DSJ are out)
Tier 2: Doncic, Devin Harris (if Barea and DSJ are out)
Tier 3:

PHO: Melton is giving the Suns a much needed spark these last few games. I expect him to be very chalky again even at the 4.9k price tag. Make sure Booker is out and Okobo is still in the G league before firing him up. Troy Daniels is questionable too for this one, so that could mean even more minutes for Melton and Bridges. Ariza did sit out last game for “rest” so I will consider him in for now. Warren is looking like my favorite play from the Suns as he’s the only consistently competent player as long as he’s healthy and not getting ejected.

Tier 1: Warren, Melton
Tier 2: Ariza, Evans (GPP)
Tier 3: Daniels, Bridges

Good talk and good luck

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