NBA DFS – 12/18/2018

Happy Tuesday. Let’s get back in the grind of things on this 4 game slate.

CLE @ IND (-12.5) o/u 207

CLE: Not an appealing spot for the Cavs here. Blowout risk is definitely real with this one, and no one stands out as a great value play. With everyone priced fairly and no one in a real good spot, it’s probably be best to look elsewhere. Nance could get extended run, but it almost feels that the Cavs are doing anything they can to not play him extended minutes. If we get word of a lineup change with Nance starting then he will have some appeal. Other than that Cedi is a GPP dart, and Deli has a bit of appeal here as the only true point guard on this team.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Cedi (GPP), Deli (GPP)
Tier 3: Nance

IND: Not much appeal on this side either with the potential blowout. Collison is coming back down in price so he could be worth a look here, but even then I don’t feel confident about playing him. If this turns to a blowout early we could see a lot of Cory Joseph and Doug McDermott if you need some GPP value plays. If you think this game stays close then you can look to Dipo as well in GPPs. Still considerable risk here and the low 207 point total does not garner much appeal..

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Dipo (if you think it stays competitive), Joseph/McDermott (if you think it blows out)
Tier 3:

LAL @ BKN (+2.5) o/u 228

LAL: The Lakers are all priced up now except for McGee and Lebron it seems like. Ball is way up to $6500 now which pretty much takes him out of consideration for me. Kuzma is still too high here as well at $7500, but at least he has been fairly consistent of late minus the last 2 games. Hart and KCP are both in the low 4s now which takes away a lot of the upside we had when they were cheaper. If McGee plays I will have a lot of exposure to him, and if he sits Tyson becomes one of the best value plays on this slate.

Tier 1: Lebron James, McGee
Tier 2: Ball (GPP), Hart, KCP (GPP)
Tier 3: Kuzma

BKN: Crabbe has missed the last 2 games so depending if he is in or out for this will determine how we attack Brooklyn. If he sits again then Kurucs gets the start and is worth a look as a punt play. Harris, Carroll, and RHJ all get a bump in minutes and usage if he’s out again too. If he plays then Crabbe is worth a look as long as there is no word of a minutes limit. Regardless of if he’s in or out, Russell and Dinwiddie are way to expensive for me and should only be reserved for GPP plays. Last but not least is my favorite play of the Nets, Jarrett Allen. At only 5.5k he is viable in all formats.

Tier 1: Jarrett Allen
Tier 2: Kurucs (if Crabbe is out), Harris (if Crabbe is out), Crabbe (if he plays), Carroll
Tier 3: RHJ

WAS @ ATL (+4.5) o/u 235

WAS: Wizards kinda looked decent last game as they blew out the Lakers. Now they get a much easier opponent in the Hawks. Otto Porter is out for at least a week, but they should have newly acquired Ariza ready to suit up and possibly start. With no more Oubre or Rivers this team is going to be fairly thin so even with the prices being inflated they still need a lot of consideration here.

Tier 1: Wall, Beal, Green, Ariza (GPP)
Tier 2: Morris, Bryant (GPP), Satoransky
Tier 3:

ATL: These teams also just played each other earlier this month and had lots of value. Prices have inflated since then, but they are still in play as this is still as good of a spot as it was against the Wizards the first time. Dedmon’s price is way up to 5.6k after having a few good games and consistent minutes. Bazemore is also fairly priced at 6.3k. John Collins seems too pricey for me, and Trae is borderline with Lin healthy. Trae has huge upside, but he plays bad so often that with Lin available his minutes are not guaranteed.

Tier 1: Bazemore, Dedmon, Bembry
Tier 2: Huerter, Young (GPP), Lin, Collins (GPP)
Tier 3: Len (GPP)

DAL @ DEN (-5) o/u 207

DAL: Another low total on the board that makes this game less appealing compared to the other two right off the start. DSJ is listed as doubtful for this game, so if he is out I would expect Brunson to get the start again and get minutes around the 30 mark. Barea is also questionable for this one so pay attention to that. If he sits that will bump up Brunson more along with Doncic and Devin Harris off the bench. Barnes also seems a bit too cheap here if you want to take a shot on him here in a decent spot with Millsap out and Lyles starting for him.

Tier 1: Brunson, Barnes (GPP)
Tier 2: DJ, Doncic
Tier 3: Dirk (GPP)

DEN: Lots of injuries have left this team looking like the Celtics of last year. Lyles should get the start for this one and is in consideration at 4.2k. Plumlee is too expensive here at $5400 as he’s priced more as if Jokic was out.. Jokic and Murray dominate the usage of the starters while Morris does the same with the bench unit. Those 3 are my favorite plays today as they should all get their full allotment of minutes with all the injuries.

Tier 1: Morris, Jokic, Murray, Lyles
Tier 2: Juancho
Tier 3: Craig

Good talk and good luck