NBA DFS – 1/3/2019

Apologies for the long hiatus over the holidays and then some. Let’s get back into it. 3 games on this Friday eve.

TOR @ SA (-1.5) o/u 216

TOR: Mr. Leonard returns to San Antonio. Gotta love the narrative in this one. His price at 8.8k seems too cheap, but you also know Pop is going to have some gameplan to try and stop him. The question is will he be able to? I don’t really think so, but again it comes down to how motivated Kawhi is in this one. Siakam is playing well and has a fair price for the upside. Let’s not forget this is a revenge spot for Danny Green as well and he is at 4k only. I like him more than all the Rockets players in a similar range.

Tier 1: Kawhi, Green, Siakam
Tier 2: Serge
Tier 3:

SA: Derozan and Poeltl are on the home side of the narrative so the lock button isn’t out just yet. Still, Derozan is just too cheap here. LMA has been playing very well of late and is also too cheap, but I don’t think I will end up on him too much more as a product of roster construction. White has been playing well and is priced just above all the Rockets secondary plays. I do prefer him over said Rockets if I need someone in the 4.5k range. Poeltl should get 20 minutes here as long as Gay, who’s doubtful currently, sits out again.

Tier 1: Derozan, LMA
Tier 2: Poeltl, White
Tier 3:

DEN @ SAC (+3.5) o/u 227

DEN: Going to be hard to pass on the Joker here after Nurkic just feasted in the same spot. He should dominate this game inside and out as WCS is showing that he is not a great defender. Millsap and Harris are back and do need some consideration. If either of them trend to the 25 minute mark they can still exceed value in this spot. Pay attention to news around that. With the uncertainty going in they should be used in tournaments over cash games. Murray’s price came down some, but he is also in a good spot here. He has great upside as we saw a couple games ago for me will also be reserved for GPPs.

Tier 1: Jokic, Murray (GPP), Millsap (GPP)
Tier 2: Beasley, Plumlee, Harris (GPP)
Tier 3:

SAC: Fox had an awful game last time out which should drive his ownership down here. This is still a good spot against Murray and he’s definitely still in play with the 7.5k price tag. Bogdan looks like my favorite play right now though from the Kings side with his 5.8k price. He has been rolling and getting good run of late even with Hield healthy. Bjelica is fairly priced here, but I would rather take the $100 savings and take a chance on Millsap. WCS is going to have his hands full here and I just don’t trust him a whole lot right now. With his price up to 6.5k I feel like there are better plays out there.

Tier 1: Bogdan
Tier 2: Fox
Tier 3: WCS, Bjelica

HOU @ GS (-8.5) o/u 225

HOU: No CP3, no Gordon, Ennis is back, but still… play Harden. Harden produces around 1.7 fantasy points per min (fppm) with CP3 off the court and has a massive usage rate of over 44% on average over the last 5 games. Now he does have a tough matchup as Klay, Iggy, and KD will all be honing in on him, but he has so much upside it’s hard to fade him completely. Outside of Harden there isn’t a whole lot to like. Capela is coming down in price and could be worth a look, but with Nene in the rotation his minutes have taken a hit. Ennis is interesting here as a min punt play. Outside of that you get a mix of House, Green, Rivers, and Tucker all priced above 4k and not standing out as must plays themselves.

Tier 1: Harden. Ennis (punt GPP play, bump down if word of a minutes limit comes out), Capela
Tier 2: Tucker, House (he has had good history against the Warriors for whatever that’s worth), GG, Rivers
Tier 3:

GS: Draymond is way too cheap here. I will be surprised if he is not the highest owned play on DK tomorrow. Iggy should get more run here to help guard Harden and is worth a look at 4k, especially if you don’t like Danny Green at the same price. Curry has been the better of the two between he and KD over the last few games. I like him more in this matchup with CP3 out and Tucker/Ennis most likely worrying about KD and Klay. If Rivers is going to see extended run and be matched with Curry, Rivers is going to be in for a long night.

Tier 1: Curry, Dray
Tier 2: Klay, KD, Iggy, Jerebko
Tier 3:

Good talk and good luck