NBA DFS – 1/4/2019

10 games today, let’s break down how we’ll attack this DK slate today by position. Again this is the first look going over the plays that stand out right now. News can change everything so pay attention to that throughout the day.

Point Guards:

As of writing this, point guard is looking like a spot I will be probably be paying down for. Most of the value plays with increased roles have also come up in price accordingly. Ricky Rubio stands out here though at $6100 in a great spot against the Cavaliers. The Cavs have been getting destroyed by point guards and that should only continue here. He should be able to reach value in 30 minutes, and the Questionable tag on him should help keep ownership down.

A cheaper option at $4300 in D.J. Augustin is another guard worth consideration. He has been playing well of late and getting the lion’s share of the point guard minutes when the game stays competitive. I expect this one to stay close so he should see good run and be able to pay off his price tag that is just too cheap for his recent production.

Lastly, if you need an even cheaper play, De’Anthony Melton at $3700 against the Clippers catches my eye. His minutes have been volatile, but he has still managed 21+ fantasy points over the last 3. At $3700 the risk of his volatile minutes is accounted for so I like this play especially if you want to punt entirely.

Shooting Guards

First shooting guard that really stood out was Zach LaVine. His price is down to $6300 and the Bulls just traded Holiday to the Grizzlies. That should only make his minutes more secure here. It is a tough matchup, but he can go off any night and should be due for a big game again soon.

Staying in that same game, Victor Oladipo at $8800 seems like a solid play for cash games and GPPs. He does a little of everything and has had good history against the Bulls in the past. At $8800 it feels like a safer play relative to Booker and Beal who are priced a bit more than him.

My third play that has some appeal is any one of the Laker guards. Hart, Ingram, and KCP all are playing well right now and getting extended run with Lebron sidelined. They get a favorable matchup here against the Knicks and I don’t mind playing any of them. If I had to rank them I’m going Hart, KCP, and then Ingram. Hart does a bit of everything and is $6200. I am slightly more confident in that play compared to KCP who is extremely volatile and cheaper, or BI who is more expensive and has to have a solid game to reach value. Also if Kuzma misses that will only increase the appeal for all three.

Small Forwards:

My favorite play at this position is Kyle Anderson at $5200 against the Nets. This is a huge pace up spot, his minutes have been trending up, and Conley is banged up a bit meaning his usage could get a slight bump. On top of that the Grizzlies just traded away Marshon and Selden so his minutes should be more secure as long as Holiday doesn’t suit up for the game.

Moe Harkless at $4200 is appealing here to me with the way he has performed of late. He has been playing 30+ minutes over the last 3 and he’s been playing well. They are going to need his length here to guard PG so he should continue to get extended run and hopefully continue his streak of near 30 fantasy point performances going.

If I don’t end up using KCP listed above in this spot, then another play I will be considering is Jeff Green. His price is coming up, but he is on a roll and it seems that Otto is going to be brought on slowly. As long as we can continue to project him for arounf 35 minutes he is viable in all formats.

Power Forwards:

John Collins at $7500 is too cheap. Now there is blowout risk for sure, but if the Hawks have any chance in this game it will have something to do with Collins. This Bucks team is solid, but we also saw them get destroyed by Thad Young who plays the same position.

Back to the Memphis game for this one where Jaren Jackson Jr. is priced at $5600. High risk high reward. He should dominate here as long as he stays out of foul trouble, which for him has been a tall ask this year.

Richaun Holmes at $3400 should be a fairly contrarian pick with the way Ayton has been playing. He is a solid punt and could get extra run if Ayton gets shook by the big Boban again. If the Suns get blown out he should get that run too which gives him more opportunities to pay off this price tag.

Centers:

Way to many centers in good spots on this slate that it is tough to narrow down. With all the viable value in other positions I think I will be spending up here starting with Karl-Anthony Towns at $9900. He is playing great and has had a usage rate in the 33% range with Teague and Rose off the court. Orlando is not a great rebounding team either and he gets to come home for this one where he plays better historically. Going to be hard for me to pass on him.

If I do pass on KAT, the center on the other side of him is a great play himself. Nikola Vucevic is $9300 now after coming off his peak of $9800 two games ago. KAT is not a great defender and he should get his usual 32-36 minutes considering this game stays competitive.

My 3rd pick was going to be Gasol, but everyone knows that playing centers against Brooklyn is always in play, so I’m going to list Boban here to throw in a punt play at center. His minutes are hard to trust, but in the two games against Phoenix this year he got 17 and 19 minutes of run. Definitely worth a look in GPPs for me, but he does also come with the opportunity cost of taking up the center or utility spot where there are so many viable plays today.

Good talk and good luck

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