NBA DFS – 1/29/2019

7 game slate today, let’s get it.

WAS @ CLE (+7) o/u 219
MIL @ DET (+6.5) o/u 220
OKC @ ORL (+5) o/u 222
CHI @ BKN (-7) o/u 217
NO @ HOU (-10) o/u 234
PHX @ SA (-13) o/u 226
PHI @ LAL (+6.5) o/u 231

WAS @ CLE (+7) o/u 219

WAS: This team is banged up with Howard and Morris all out for the foreseeable future and Wall done for the season. Last game Mahinmi and Dekker joined them on the sidelines as well. The Wizards are still in the playoff hunt currently sitting at the ten spot after losing in San Antonio last outing. The Cavs in theory should be an easy win, but both these teams are bad and don’t rebound or play defense.

Satoransky is coming off a great game where he did a little bit of everything and is fairly priced, if not a bit cheap for this one. Beal is a bit too pricey for me here, but definitely still has upside. I would just rather pay $1500 or so more for one of the other studs on this slate. Ariza isn’t a great per minute producer, but he is seeing close to 40 minutes in competitive games. He’s also in the fairly priced category and doesn’t stand out as a priority to me. Bryant and Jeff Green are also in similar situations themselves at 5.5k and 4.7k respectively. If Mahinmi is out again then Bryant should get close to 30 minutes again and is worth a look. Green should also be around the 30 minute mark and looks like the best value of this Wizards team.

Tier 1: Satoransky
Tier 2: Bryant (if Mahinmi is out), Ariza, Green, Beal, Porter
Tier 3:

CLE: The Cavs actually hung on to win a game for the second time of 2019 against the great Chicago Bulls. They are still last in the league as they compete for the first pick and I can’t see them wanting to win many more games with the Knicks and Suns doing their best to keep up the tank with them. Disgraceful in my opinion, but I don’t need to get into that right now.

As far as DFS goes there is definitely opportunity here against the Wizards in a pace up spot for these Cavs. I hate rostering Osman, but he has now put together 3 solid games in a row and should see plenty of minutes here. The Wizards are still a bad rebounding and defensive team so Osman’s hustle could pay off here and give him a few extra peripheral stats even though he hasn’t had a good game against them this year. Nance is back but the Cavs do everything possible to not play him and I don’t think anything will change in this one. That means you can look to Zizic at $6100, but at that price he does have limited upside. Sexton’s minutes have been down in the last two games, but if he plays well he will get 30+ minutes. At 4.4k he has plenty of upside and he has played well against the Wizards twice this season scoring 29.75 and 45.25 fantasy points in their first two meetings.

Tier 1: Sexton (GPP), Burks
Tier 2: Zizic, Osman
Tier 3: Clarkson

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NBA DFS – 1/23/2019

Happy Hump day, let’s get into this 10 game slate.

Point Guards:

Darren Collison $5200 vs TOR – Collison has been playing well of late and yet still is priced around the 5k range. This game is largely unappealing so that should also keep his ownership low.

Kris Dunn $6300 vs ATL – Pace up spot in a very favorable matchup against Trae Young. Even if he isn’t scoring a lot, the pace bump should be enough to give him a few extra peripheral stats

Terry Rozier $4000 vs CLE – going to be hard not to lock and load Rozier here against the Cavs. Chalk play for sure, but good chalk at that versus a team that consistently has let point guards outperform against them

Shooting Guards:

James Harden $13400 @ NY – With the 10 game slate it shouldn’t be too hard to find value and fit Harden in your lineups. He had a “bad” game last time out and still put up 55 fpts…

Justin Holiday $3700 vs CHA – he has worked his way into 30+ minutes a game now and is just too cheap for that role. Definite upside here at this price tag

D’Angelo Russell $8000 vs ORL – It slightly feels like chasing points, but he keeps proving the upside is real. He has been on an absolute tear and just dropped 40 real points against these same Magic 2 games ago. On top of that he’s topped 55 fpts in 3 of his last 4. I’ll definitely have some exposure to the hot hand here again.

Small Forwards:

DeAndre Bembry $5300 / Taurean Prince $4900 @ CHI – Huerter is doubtful so Prince should see another spot start. Prince is also in play, but to me Bembry is the safer option right now. Bottom line is the Bulls are one of the worst defensive teams in the league right now so that alone gives them upside. If Huerter ends up playing then for sure go with Bembry as his minutes are more secure.

Nicolas Batum $4500 @ MEM – GPP play here that I am basing almost solely on his history against Memphis. For some reason he plays well against them so I have a bit of interest.

Dion Waiters $4300 vs LAC – Waiters can still catch fire and as he gets into better shape and can play more minutes I become more interested in rostering him. If he gets closer to the 25 minute mark he should be able to reach value with the nice pace bump

Power Forwards:

Kenneth Faried $4400 @ NYK – Faried gets a favorable matchup here against the Knicks after seeing 23 minutes against the Sixers. As long as he gets the minutes he has the upside.

Robert Williams $3100 vs CLE – GPP play here only. The potential blowout helps him here, and even if it stays close I think he should at least get 10+ minutes. Theis is also intriguing in this spot, but after the last couple games I am starting to think the Time Lord may jump Theis in the rotation.

Julius Randle $8400 vs DET – Blake doesn’t play much defense so without AD in the picture it is hard not to like Randle in this spot.

Centers:

Enes Kanter $5000 vs HOU – no Kornet so Kanter should be able to see around 25+ minutes  in this one. Minutes = production for him most of the time so even though he will be chalky, I will be eating it

Hassan Whiteside $6000 vs LAC – Clippers have been a great team to target centers against. Minutes are always a concern, but if he can get closer to the 25+ mark this is a great spot for him to dominate

Jahlil Okafor $4600 vs DET – with no AD, against bigger teams Jahlil should get extended run. He saw 35 minutes against Gasol and played well. Here he is in a better spot against Drummond and should see close to 30 minutes.

Good talk and good luck

NBA DFS – 1/9/2019

Ten game slate on this Wednesday main slate. Sticking with the same positional breakdown. Let’s jump in

Point Guards:

Jeremy Lin $4200 @ BKN – as you go through this you should see a lot of these picks hinging on another player’s status. In this case, Kevin Huerter is whom we need to wait on. If Lin starts he should be very popular against his former team.

Mike Conley $7400 vs SA – I’m thinking the Grizzlies bounce back against the Spurs at home now after getting blown out in San Antonio a couple games ago. Now that Conley’s price is reasonable again the upside is back too.

De’Anthony Melton $4300 @ DAL – The usage goes up with Booker out, but even with Booker in he still should get solid run. Like this play more if he does sit out again.

Shooting Guards:

James Harden $12200 vs MIL – out of the stud plays on this slate I don’t think anyone compares to Harden. I’ll keep going back to this well, especially against the Bucks who have given up a lot of 3s this year. Guess who shoots a lot, James Harden.

Gerald Green $4200 vs MIL – the last note about the Bucks giving up a lot of threes put GG also in play for me. He is going to get 28-30 minutes and has been shooting well with double digit shot attempts in each of the last four. Very scoring reliant, but still has decent upside with him falling into a few peripheral stats once in awhile

Donovan Mitchell $7300 vs ORL – Rubio is out for about two weeks along with Exum. That means Neto will get the start along side Mitchell. This will bump up the minutes, usage, and opportunity for Mitchell while also putting the ball more in his hands playing point guard

Small Forwards:

Cedi Osman $4400 @ NO – pace up spot could pay off here for Cedi. He has shown us 40 point upside in the past, but also a floor close to zero. GPP only if you need a dart in a good spot that should be low-owned

Jake Layman $3700 vs CHI – punt play here if you need it. If you play it you should be hoping for it to not stay close so Jake can get some extra garbage run.

Reggie Bullock $4200 @ LAL – nice pace bump here for a guy playing 35+ minutes. This play not only seems safe at this price tag, but the matchup bumps the potential upside higher as well.

Power Forwards:

Domantas Sabonis $7100 @ BOS – this play hinges on the availability of Myles Turner. If he is out I will be going right back here and most likely passing on this play if Turner pays

Lauri Markkanen $6300 @ POR – price has came down and I think we can still project him for around 33 minutes with Portis back. Portland doesn’t have anyone to match his length at the 4 unless they decide to run Zach Collins out alongside Nurkic. Either way he should be able to get his at this price

Kyle Kuzma $7000 vs DET – while all the other Laker’s prices have increased, Kuzma’s is finally coming down. This is a good spot as noted by the +2 expected fantasy point differential the Pistons have given up on the road this year to power forwards.

Centers:

Marc Gasol $6500 vs SA – too cheap here is the bottom line. He still has 50 burger upside so he’s viable in all tournaments.

Tristan Thompson $6000 @ NO – If Nance is out then I like this play even more. He was on a roll before getting hurt and it seems that he’s getting back in the groove while his price hasn’t reflected that yet

DeAndre Jordan $6900 vs PHO – Ayton has been getting destroyed by opposing centers so I had to include DJ here. He is a bit pricey and there are plenty of options at center if you don’t think he’s worth it. The blowout risk is somewhat a factor here too

Good talk and good luck

NBA DFS – 1/8/2019

8 games on this lovely Tuesday. Going position by position with my top threes after first look. As always news throughout the day will change everything. Let’s get it

Point Guards:

Ben Simmons $9100 vs WAS – the Wizards are one of the worst rebounding teams, they don’t play defense, and they play at a fast pace. This just feels like it has all the ingredients for a triple double game. The one negative is that Butler is back, but that hasn’t really affected Ben’s usage much yet.

De’Aaron Fox $7200 @ PHO – back to back for the Kings in a great spot here against the Suns. Hield is now priced more than Fox, but Fox is still the better per minute producer this season. I’ll definitely be going back to Fox here and take the salary discount.

Trey Burke $3400 @ GS – with Ntilikina out and the Knicks most likely needing production somewhere, Burke should be looked at early to help keep it competitive. Even if it blows out he still should get run and easily pay off this cheap price tag. He has upside, it is more a matter of if he will get the minutes, and with Ntilikina out he should at least see around 20

Shooting Guards:

Victor Oladipo $8400 @ CLE – the blowout potential is real, but Oladipo still needs consideration. This is a good spot especially of late as the Cavs have been good to target the opposing backcourt against. If this game ends up staying competitive then he could be in for a huge game.

Devin Booker $8700 vs SAC – Booker is questionable currently, but if he plays he finds himself in a great pace up spot here against the Kings. Based on salary point expectations, the Kings have given up a slate-high, +2.7 DK fantasy point differential while on the road.

Gary Harris $5400 @ MIA – Harris re-entered the starting lineup, and this is a back to back for him after recently returning from injury. For those reasons this is definitely a tourney play only. His price is cheap enough that I don’t mind taking the risk for the potential upside.

Small Forwards:

Nicolas Batum $4700 @ LAC – not going to be a popular play for sure, but he has a great matchup against Harris or Gallo here. Obviously he hasn’t done much this year, but he is one of those players that can fill up the stat sheet doing a bit of everything. He is due for a good shooting game and at 4.7k it’s worth a shot.

DeAndre’ Bembry $4600 @ TOR – no Bazemore, no Prince, and possibly no Huerter in this one. The Hawks are getting thin at the wing and Bembry was able to crack the starting unit last game. This isn’t an ideal matchup, but the minutes should be there

T.J. Warren $7100 vs SAC – this play is more for if Booker gets ruled out. Either way you can play Warren at this price because of the pace bump. Warren goes out and attacks all game regardless how poor he’s playing. $7100 does limit his upside, but against the Kings, I’ll still take it

Power Forwards:

Noah Vonleh $6100 @ GS – Vonleh should see some center run here as both teams can go small. Kanter probably can’t stay on the court much with the Warriors, so Vonleh should slide down if that’s the case.

John Collins $6900 @ TOR – too cheap here for his upside. Yes, it is a tough matchup.. but if the Hawks can keep it slightly close he should get his usual 32 minutes of run with a chance to crush this price tag

Domantas Sabonis $7400 @ CLE – If Turner misses this game I will be locking in Sabonis even at this price. Thad also comes into consideration in that case. If Turner plays I don’t think I will get to this play much.

Centers:

Joel Embiid $11000 – No question, this looks like the best spot on the slate. The only thing I don’t like is the price tag. As of now I don’t think I will have enough value to pay up for him, but if I am paying up for center this is who I will be going with.

Hassan Whiteside $6600 vs DEN – centers have quietly been outperforming salary based expectations against the Nuggets all season. This is a risky play, but also could be very rewarding. Whiteside has huge upside, but also has a very low floor since Spoelstra hates him

Willie Cauley-Stein $6300 @ PHO – Ayton has been rebounding better of late, but opposing centers are still destroying the Suns. The back to back does concern me a bit especially with what happened last time with Joerger benching his starters and basically making it an unofficial rest day..

Good talk and good luck

NBA DFS – 1/4/2019

10 games today, let’s break down how we’ll attack this DK slate today by position. Again this is the first look going over the plays that stand out right now. News can change everything so pay attention to that throughout the day.

Point Guards:

As of writing this, point guard is looking like a spot I will be probably be paying down for. Most of the value plays with increased roles have also come up in price accordingly. Ricky Rubio stands out here though at $6100 in a great spot against the Cavaliers. The Cavs have been getting destroyed by point guards and that should only continue here. He should be able to reach value in 30 minutes, and the Questionable tag on him should help keep ownership down.

A cheaper option at $4300 in D.J. Augustin is another guard worth consideration. He has been playing well of late and getting the lion’s share of the point guard minutes when the game stays competitive. I expect this one to stay close so he should see good run and be able to pay off his price tag that is just too cheap for his recent production.

Lastly, if you need an even cheaper play, De’Anthony Melton at $3700 against the Clippers catches my eye. His minutes have been volatile, but he has still managed 21+ fantasy points over the last 3. At $3700 the risk of his volatile minutes is accounted for so I like this play especially if you want to punt entirely.

Shooting Guards

First shooting guard that really stood out was Zach LaVine. His price is down to $6300 and the Bulls just traded Holiday to the Grizzlies. That should only make his minutes more secure here. It is a tough matchup, but he can go off any night and should be due for a big game again soon.

Staying in that same game, Victor Oladipo at $8800 seems like a solid play for cash games and GPPs. He does a little of everything and has had good history against the Bulls in the past. At $8800 it feels like a safer play relative to Booker and Beal who are priced a bit more than him.

My third play that has some appeal is any one of the Laker guards. Hart, Ingram, and KCP all are playing well right now and getting extended run with Lebron sidelined. They get a favorable matchup here against the Knicks and I don’t mind playing any of them. If I had to rank them I’m going Hart, KCP, and then Ingram. Hart does a bit of everything and is $6200. I am slightly more confident in that play compared to KCP who is extremely volatile and cheaper, or BI who is more expensive and has to have a solid game to reach value. Also if Kuzma misses that will only increase the appeal for all three.

Small Forwards:

My favorite play at this position is Kyle Anderson at $5200 against the Nets. This is a huge pace up spot, his minutes have been trending up, and Conley is banged up a bit meaning his usage could get a slight bump. On top of that the Grizzlies just traded away Marshon and Selden so his minutes should be more secure as long as Holiday doesn’t suit up for the game.

Moe Harkless at $4200 is appealing here to me with the way he has performed of late. He has been playing 30+ minutes over the last 3 and he’s been playing well. They are going to need his length here to guard PG so he should continue to get extended run and hopefully continue his streak of near 30 fantasy point performances going.

If I don’t end up using KCP listed above in this spot, then another play I will be considering is Jeff Green. His price is coming up, but he is on a roll and it seems that Otto is going to be brought on slowly. As long as we can continue to project him for arounf 35 minutes he is viable in all formats.

Power Forwards:

John Collins at $7500 is too cheap. Now there is blowout risk for sure, but if the Hawks have any chance in this game it will have something to do with Collins. This Bucks team is solid, but we also saw them get destroyed by Thad Young who plays the same position.

Back to the Memphis game for this one where Jaren Jackson Jr. is priced at $5600. High risk high reward. He should dominate here as long as he stays out of foul trouble, which for him has been a tall ask this year.

Richaun Holmes at $3400 should be a fairly contrarian pick with the way Ayton has been playing. He is a solid punt and could get extra run if Ayton gets shook by the big Boban again. If the Suns get blown out he should get that run too which gives him more opportunities to pay off this price tag.

Centers:

Way to many centers in good spots on this slate that it is tough to narrow down. With all the viable value in other positions I think I will be spending up here starting with Karl-Anthony Towns at $9900. He is playing great and has had a usage rate in the 33% range with Teague and Rose off the court. Orlando is not a great rebounding team either and he gets to come home for this one where he plays better historically. Going to be hard for me to pass on him.

If I do pass on KAT, the center on the other side of him is a great play himself. Nikola Vucevic is $9300 now after coming off his peak of $9800 two games ago. KAT is not a great defender and he should get his usual 32-36 minutes considering this game stays competitive.

My 3rd pick was going to be Gasol, but everyone knows that playing centers against Brooklyn is always in play, so I’m going to list Boban here to throw in a punt play at center. His minutes are hard to trust, but in the two games against Phoenix this year he got 17 and 19 minutes of run. Definitely worth a look in GPPs for me, but he does also come with the opportunity cost of taking up the center or utility spot where there are so many viable plays today.

Good talk and good luck

NBA DFS – 1/3/2019

Apologies for the long hiatus over the holidays and then some. Let’s get back into it. 3 games on this Friday eve.

TOR @ SA (-1.5) o/u 216

TOR: Mr. Leonard returns to San Antonio. Gotta love the narrative in this one. His price at 8.8k seems too cheap, but you also know Pop is going to have some gameplan to try and stop him. The question is will he be able to? I don’t really think so, but again it comes down to how motivated Kawhi is in this one. Siakam is playing well and has a fair price for the upside. Let’s not forget this is a revenge spot for Danny Green as well and he is at 4k only. I like him more than all the Rockets players in a similar range.

Tier 1: Kawhi, Green, Siakam
Tier 2: Serge
Tier 3:

SA: Derozan and Poeltl are on the home side of the narrative so the lock button isn’t out just yet. Still, Derozan is just too cheap here. LMA has been playing very well of late and is also too cheap, but I don’t think I will end up on him too much more as a product of roster construction. White has been playing well and is priced just above all the Rockets secondary plays. I do prefer him over said Rockets if I need someone in the 4.5k range. Poeltl should get 20 minutes here as long as Gay, who’s doubtful currently, sits out again.

Tier 1: Derozan, LMA
Tier 2: Poeltl, White
Tier 3:

DEN @ SAC (+3.5) o/u 227

DEN: Going to be hard to pass on the Joker here after Nurkic just feasted in the same spot. He should dominate this game inside and out as WCS is showing that he is not a great defender. Millsap and Harris are back and do need some consideration. If either of them trend to the 25 minute mark they can still exceed value in this spot. Pay attention to news around that. With the uncertainty going in they should be used in tournaments over cash games. Murray’s price came down some, but he is also in a good spot here. He has great upside as we saw a couple games ago for me will also be reserved for GPPs.

Tier 1: Jokic, Murray (GPP), Millsap (GPP)
Tier 2: Beasley, Plumlee, Harris (GPP)
Tier 3:

SAC: Fox had an awful game last time out which should drive his ownership down here. This is still a good spot against Murray and he’s definitely still in play with the 7.5k price tag. Bogdan looks like my favorite play right now though from the Kings side with his 5.8k price. He has been rolling and getting good run of late even with Hield healthy. Bjelica is fairly priced here, but I would rather take the $100 savings and take a chance on Millsap. WCS is going to have his hands full here and I just don’t trust him a whole lot right now. With his price up to 6.5k I feel like there are better plays out there.

Tier 1: Bogdan
Tier 2: Fox
Tier 3: WCS, Bjelica

HOU @ GS (-8.5) o/u 225

HOU: No CP3, no Gordon, Ennis is back, but still… play Harden. Harden produces around 1.7 fantasy points per min (fppm) with CP3 off the court and has a massive usage rate of over 44% on average over the last 5 games. Now he does have a tough matchup as Klay, Iggy, and KD will all be honing in on him, but he has so much upside it’s hard to fade him completely. Outside of Harden there isn’t a whole lot to like. Capela is coming down in price and could be worth a look, but with Nene in the rotation his minutes have taken a hit. Ennis is interesting here as a min punt play. Outside of that you get a mix of House, Green, Rivers, and Tucker all priced above 4k and not standing out as must plays themselves.

Tier 1: Harden. Ennis (punt GPP play, bump down if word of a minutes limit comes out), Capela
Tier 2: Tucker, House (he has had good history against the Warriors for whatever that’s worth), GG, Rivers
Tier 3:

GS: Draymond is way too cheap here. I will be surprised if he is not the highest owned play on DK tomorrow. Iggy should get more run here to help guard Harden and is worth a look at 4k, especially if you don’t like Danny Green at the same price. Curry has been the better of the two between he and KD over the last few games. I like him more in this matchup with CP3 out and Tucker/Ennis most likely worrying about KD and Klay. If Rivers is going to see extended run and be matched with Curry, Rivers is going to be in for a long night.

Tier 1: Curry, Dray
Tier 2: Klay, KD, Iggy, Jerebko
Tier 3:

Good talk and good luck