NBA DFS – 12/18/2018

Happy Tuesday. Let’s get back in the grind of things on this 4 game slate.

CLE @ IND (-12.5) o/u 207

CLE: Not an appealing spot for the Cavs here. Blowout risk is definitely real with this one, and no one stands out as a great value play. With everyone priced fairly and no one in a real good spot, it’s probably be best to look elsewhere. Nance could get extended run, but it almost feels that the Cavs are doing anything they can to not play him extended minutes. If we get word of a lineup change with Nance starting then he will have some appeal. Other than that Cedi is a GPP dart, and Deli has a bit of appeal here as the only true point guard on this team.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Cedi (GPP), Deli (GPP)
Tier 3: Nance

IND: Not much appeal on this side either with the potential blowout. Collison is coming back down in price so he could be worth a look here, but even then I don’t feel confident about playing him. If this turns to a blowout early we could see a lot of Cory Joseph and Doug McDermott if you need some GPP value plays. If you think this game stays close then you can look to Dipo as well in GPPs. Still considerable risk here and the low 207 point total does not garner much appeal..

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Dipo (if you think it stays competitive), Joseph/McDermott (if you think it blows out)
Tier 3:

LAL @ BKN (+2.5) o/u 228

LAL: The Lakers are all priced up now except for McGee and Lebron it seems like. Ball is way up to $6500 now which pretty much takes him out of consideration for me. Kuzma is still too high here as well at $7500, but at least he has been fairly consistent of late minus the last 2 games. Hart and KCP are both in the low 4s now which takes away a lot of the upside we had when they were cheaper. If McGee plays I will have a lot of exposure to him, and if he sits Tyson becomes one of the best value plays on this slate.

Tier 1: Lebron James, McGee
Tier 2: Ball (GPP), Hart, KCP (GPP)
Tier 3: Kuzma

BKN: Crabbe has missed the last 2 games so depending if he is in or out for this will determine how we attack Brooklyn. If he sits again then Kurucs gets the start and is worth a look as a punt play. Harris, Carroll, and RHJ all get a bump in minutes and usage if he’s out again too. If he plays then Crabbe is worth a look as long as there is no word of a minutes limit. Regardless of if he’s in or out, Russell and Dinwiddie are way to expensive for me and should only be reserved for GPP plays. Last but not least is my favorite play of the Nets, Jarrett Allen. At only 5.5k he is viable in all formats.

Tier 1: Jarrett Allen
Tier 2: Kurucs (if Crabbe is out), Harris (if Crabbe is out), Crabbe (if he plays), Carroll
Tier 3: RHJ

WAS @ ATL (+4.5) o/u 235

WAS: Wizards kinda looked decent last game as they blew out the Lakers. Now they get a much easier opponent in the Hawks. Otto Porter is out for at least a week, but they should have newly acquired Ariza ready to suit up and possibly start. With no more Oubre or Rivers this team is going to be fairly thin so even with the prices being inflated they still need a lot of consideration here.

Tier 1: Wall, Beal, Green, Ariza (GPP)
Tier 2: Morris, Bryant (GPP), Satoransky
Tier 3:

ATL: These teams also just played each other earlier this month and had lots of value. Prices have inflated since then, but they are still in play as this is still as good of a spot as it was against the Wizards the first time. Dedmon’s price is way up to 5.6k after having a few good games and consistent minutes. Bazemore is also fairly priced at 6.3k. John Collins seems too pricey for me, and Trae is borderline with Lin healthy. Trae has huge upside, but he plays bad so often that with Lin available his minutes are not guaranteed.

Tier 1: Bazemore, Dedmon, Bembry
Tier 2: Huerter, Young (GPP), Lin, Collins (GPP)
Tier 3: Len (GPP)

DAL @ DEN (-5) o/u 207

DAL: Another low total on the board that makes this game less appealing compared to the other two right off the start. DSJ is listed as doubtful for this game, so if he is out I would expect Brunson to get the start again and get minutes around the 30 mark. Barea is also questionable for this one so pay attention to that. If he sits that will bump up Brunson more along with Doncic and Devin Harris off the bench. Barnes also seems a bit too cheap here if you want to take a shot on him here in a decent spot with Millsap out and Lyles starting for him.

Tier 1: Brunson, Barnes (GPP)
Tier 2: DJ, Doncic
Tier 3: Dirk (GPP)

DEN: Lots of injuries have left this team looking like the Celtics of last year. Lyles should get the start for this one and is in consideration at 4.2k. Plumlee is too expensive here at $5400 as he’s priced more as if Jokic was out.. Jokic and Murray dominate the usage of the starters while Morris does the same with the bench unit. Those 3 are my favorite plays today as they should all get their full allotment of minutes with all the injuries.

Tier 1: Morris, Jokic, Murray, Lyles
Tier 2: Juancho
Tier 3: Craig

Good talk and good luck

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NBA DFS – 12/15/2018

Happy 6 game Saturday, let’s get it

LAL @ CHA (+2) o/u 227

LAL: Lebron’s history against Charlotte is hard to ignore, and at 10.7k he seems too cheap to try and avoid completely. Ball is another play that seems too cheap here with Rondo still out making his minutes in the 34-36 range secure. McGee is currently questionable so if he sits Tyson Chandler becomes a great punt play at $3600. Kuzma is too pricey for me, but he has been playing well of late.

Tier 1: Lebron, Ball
Tier 2: McGee, Hart
Tier 3: Kuzma

CHA: The Hornets just played an OT game last night and now get a pace up matchup with the Lakers. Lamb is too cheap here at $5300 only. Batum finally had a good game, but it was also his birthday yesterday so if you play him then hopefully he didn’t over indulge last night. Zeller is also in play here as centers against the Lakers have been a solid play this year.

Tier 1: Zeller, Lamb
Tier 2: Batum
Tier 3:

BOS @ DET (+2.5) o/u 214

BOS: Boston is also on a back to back here after playing beating Atlanta easily last night. Baynes is most likely on a minutes restriction still else he would be one to target with Horford out. Hopefully this game can stay competitive so we see Kyrie and company get their full workload. Hayward is a sneaky play here to me at his price point and should go overlooked especially with him coming off the bench.

Tier 1: Hayward (GPP)
Tier 2: Kyrie, Baynes (sounding like he doesn’t have a minutes restriction tonight)
Tier 3: Robert Williams (GPP), Theis

DET: I don’t have much interest in the Pistons here. Drummond and Reggie Jackson are worth a look, but are more in play because of their prices. Ish still out makes Reggie Jackson’s minutes more secure while Zaza being out bumps up Drummond a couple himself.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Drummond, Reggie Jackson
Tier 3:

HOU @ MEM (+3.5) o/u 201

HOU: This is setting up to be a very slow paced game, and the slowest on this slate by a wide margin. No one stands out here to me. Eric Gordon is questionable so if he sits then you could bump up GG and House a bit, but I still won’t really be looking to them for much.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Harden, GG (if Gordon ruled out)
Tier 3:

MEM: Much like the Rockets there isn’t much I like here. Anderson and Conley are listed as questionable so if they sit that could open up some value between Mack, MarShon, and Selden. Temple is intriguing at his cheap price tag. He shot well last game and is locked into 30+ minutes every night.

Tier 1: Temple (GPP), Mack (only a play if Conley is out)
Tier 2: Conley, Gasol, Anderson, Green (bump up if Anderson is out)
Tier 3:

CHI @ SA (-11) o/u 214

CHI: No LaVine tonight so Dunn has moved into the starting lineup. Jabari is seemingly out of the rotation now for who knows why. If Dunn gets closer to 30 minutes tonight he becomes my favorite play from this team. Markkannen has a bad matchup defensively with Gay, but he should be fine getting his shots off against him. Holiday should get a bump here in minutes with LaVine being out too.

Tier 1: Dunn (GPP), Markkannen
Tier 2: Harrison, Arcidiacono, Holiday
Tier 3:

SA: Blowout potential here once again for the Spurs as they are 11 point favorites. LMA is going to be the target here. He is still too cheap and he can easily dominate in limited minutes to pay off the price tag. If he somehow gets closer to 30 minutes he has lots of upside. Demar is priced a bit too high for me while White could be a look as a punt play if you need it.

Tier 1: LMA, White
Tier 2: Demar, Gay
Tier 3:

LAC @ OKC (-6.5) o/u 224

LAC: Whoever PG guards between Harris and Gallo, I would rather have the other one. Regardless, Tobias seems too cheap here at 7k. Yeah he has had a couple down games, but that was due to blowouts. This one should stay closer if not for any other reason than OKC is on a back to back. Gallinari is also in play here at his $6300 price tag, but again if I’m only playing one I do prefer Harris more. Outside of them I don’t have much appeal for anyone in the backcourt. Beverley is the cheapest so maybe go there if you have to.

Tier 1: Gallinari, Harris
Tier 2: Boban (if he starts), Beverley
Tier 3:

OKC: Westbrook is still probably pissed off from last night’s tough loss to the Nuggets. He’s definitely in play especially if you don’t want to play the chalky Lebron. PG is also in play here as they really have no one that can match with him. His price has come up so that should keep him lower owned. Grant is also fairly cheap and worth some exposure here.

Tier 1: PG, Adams
Tier 2: Westbrook, Grant
Tier 3:

MIN @ PHO (+7.5) o/u 217

MIN: No Taj tonight so that means Saric is going to be the chalkiest play at $4200. KAT is also in a great spot even with his $9800 price tag. Ayton has not played defense this year as centers have routinely gone off against the Suns. Covington’s price has also come down to playable territory again as long as he suits up. The other play I like here is Rose. This game could easily be played with Cov at the 4 and a lot of 2 point guard sets. He’s in good form and in a good spot for GPPs especially

Tier 1: Covington, KAT, Saric, Rose
Tier 2: Wiggins, Teague
Tier 3:

PHO: Suns got a deal done for Ariza and in return they get Oubre and Rivers from the Wizards. Warren is going to be an extremely popular play, but I do have some concern for him at 6.6k. Part of that concern was mentioned above in Cov playing the 4 and matching up with him. He should be fine against Saric defense all day, but Cov is a good defender that will slow him down. Booker is also set to return here so that lowers the usage a bit for Warren and Melton.

Tier 1: Holmes (GPP)
Tier 2: Warren, Bridges
Tier 3: Booker, Josh Jackson

Good talk and good luck

NBA DFS – 12/13/2018

Happy Friday eve the 13th. 4 game slate.. let’s get it

LAL @ HOU (-5.5) o/u 223

LAL: Houston has actually played decent defense at home and are playing at a slow pace this year making this not a great matchup for the Lakers. Lebron is going to be matched up against Tucker in this one which means Kuzma is going to have Gordon or Harden on him. Ball is too cheap again here and in play even though it isn’t a great matchup against CP3. Hart too should get 30+ minutes, but he’s also not a high usage player and will have the task of trying to slow down Harden.

Tier 1: Lebron, Ball (GPP)
Tier 2: Hart, KCP, Chandler, Kuzma (GPP)
Tier 3: McGee (GPP)

HOU: Now on the other end this is a great matchup for the Rockets. Harden is $100 cheaper than the King, but he gets a pace up matchup at home. CP3 came way up after having a good game last time out, but Harden dominates usage while he is on the court so that leaves little room for upside at his price tag. Capela has been losing some minutes to Nene, but is still a great play on this 4 game slate. Ennis is out for this one so GG and House should get some run. Brandon Knight is also set to make his debut after being out for almost 2 years. I do have some interest in him and will have some exposure in GPPs.

Tier 1: Capela, Harden
Tier 2: CP3, Knight (GPP), Gordon (GPP), GG, Tucker
Tier 3:

 

LAC @ SA (-2) o/u 223

LAC: The Clippers get a much better matchup tonight after getting smacked by the Raptors in their last game. Lou Will is still out for this one so the guard rotation should open up a bit for Bradley, SGA, and Beverley. The Spurs are better defensively at home, but this is still a pretty good matchup. I expect this game to stay competitive and Tobias is going to be the first player I target here. SGA and Beverley will be my next favorite plays with Lou being out. This is a Boban revenge game for anyone who wants a narrative. I can’t really see him get much time though especially if the Spurs start LMA at center.

Tier 1: Tobias
Tier 2: SGA, Gallo, Harrell
Tier 3: Beverley, Boban

SA: Honestly I was somewhat surprised the Spurs actually did what they were supposed to do and blowout the Suns. Let’s see if they can go back to back against the Clips. Forbes has had back to back 30+ minutes and good games. I still don’t have confidence in him though and don’t expect that play to continue. LMA probably has the best matchup at center, but Derozan and Gay are in plus matchups themselves against Bradley and Tobias respectively. I like all three in this one especially if it indeed does stay competitive and they can get their full minutes.

Tier 1: LMA, Derozan, Gay
Tier 2: Forbes, White
Tier 3: Mills, Poeltl

CHI @ ORL (-4.5) o/u 209

CHI: The Bulls are getting healthy now which means they are losing their appeal in DFS. Dunn and Portis will most likely be on a minutes restriction again, but if you want to gamble on one I’d lean toward Dunn who only has to beat out Arcidiacono for minutes. Wendell and LaVine seem like they should get 30 minutes regularly still so they are in play here for the moment.

Tier 1: LaVine, Carter Jr. 
Tier 2: Dunn (GPP), Markkannen, Holiday
Tier 3: Portis (GPP)

ORL: Both of these teams are bad so it should be a good game. Vooch is one of my favorite plays, if not my favorite play of this slate. His price has come down since he hasn’t been getting as much run in blowout scenarios, so this is a nice spot for him to see full minutes and get back to 50 burgers. Fournier and Simmons are questionable for this game so follow that to see if they are in or out. If they are out then Isaac and Ross should get more run and viable plays. Gordon has been playing well, but I just can’t get myself to pay up to $7800 for him with Kuzma, Harris, and LMA all cheaper and in just as good of spots.

Tier 1: Vooch
Tier 2: Isaac/Ross (if Simmons/Fournier sit), Augustin
Tier 3:

DAL @ PHO (+7) o/u 211

DAL: Barea may be out for this one after spraining his ankle last night so that would bump up Brunson and Devin Harris. DSJ I assume will be out again so Brunson should still be starting. He struggled last game, but should bounce back here against a weak Phoenix team, especially if Barea is out. Deandre is in a great spot here as Ayton is getting a reputation of not playing defense. Dirk should make his debut soon so that’s another piece of news to watch out for. As of right now I am assuming he’s not playing..

Tier 1: DJ, Brunson (if Barea and DSJ are out)
Tier 2: Doncic, Devin Harris (if Barea and DSJ are out)
Tier 3:

PHO: Melton is giving the Suns a much needed spark these last few games. I expect him to be very chalky again even at the 4.9k price tag. Make sure Booker is out and Okobo is still in the G league before firing him up. Troy Daniels is questionable too for this one, so that could mean even more minutes for Melton and Bridges. Ariza did sit out last game for “rest” so I will consider him in for now. Warren is looking like my favorite play from the Suns as he’s the only consistently competent player as long as he’s healthy and not getting ejected.

Tier 1: Warren, Melton
Tier 2: Ariza, Evans (GPP)
Tier 3: Daniels, Bridges

Good talk and good luck

NBA DFS – 12/12/2018

Back to the big slate and back to breaking it down by position. Here are my plays from first glance that stand out. Obviously there will probably be a lot of news coming out so adjust accordingly as that comes out. Here we go

Point Guards:

Russell Westbrook $10900 @ NO – Pelicans play at on e of the fastest paces in the league so this spot is perfect. Add that to a price tag under 11k and it is going to be hard to pass on Russ here.

Tim Frazier $4100 vs OKC – Tim’s price didn’t move here and he’s still playing 30+ minutes a game. Can’t ignore him again, plus I like targeting the point guards against Russ.

Ricky Rubio $5900 vs MIA – Miami offers a good matchup and Rubio just got a price decrease of $400 as he returns home to play in Utah. What’s not to like?

DeAaron Fox $7300 vs MIN – What does the Fox say? I don’t care, but I do know this guy is on a roll. I don’t think Teague will be able to keep up

John Wall $8400 vs BOS – People may shy away from here which only raises the appeal I have. Good pivot off of Kyrie if you don’t want to go there.

Kyrie Irving $8500 @ WAS – Great matchup versus the Wizards and he should be well rested after sitting out last game.

Goran Dragic $5700 @ UTA – He feels to cheap here at this price. With everyone healthy though he may not get a full workload so this play does have more risk than I’d like

T.J. McConnell $3500 vs BKN – since Fultz has been diagnosed with his nerve condition and the Sixers trading for Jimmy Buter, McConnell has slowly worked his way into getting solid minutes. Like him here especially if Butler ends up sitting out

Jalen Brunson $3800 vs ATL – DSJ is already ruled out for the game today so that means Brunson should continue to see high 20s to low 30s in minutes. Hard to not like that against this Hawks team who features a point guard in Trae Young that doesn’t play defense

NBA DFS – 12/11/2018

Crazy slate yesterday with all the news and value that opened up. Hopefully you did better than I did.. anyways let’s get back to it with a small 3 game slate

POR @ HOU (-6.5) o/u 219

POR: This is looking like the game to target at first look on this three game slate. Lillard has a tough matchup with CP3, but in a 3 game slate raw points become more important and he should still have one of the highest totals on the board. I never like paying for McCollum, but he is in play here on the 3 slate as well. Aminu is too cheap with him scoring 32.5+ DK fantasy points in 4 of the last 5. Rockets run small often so he should play plenty of minutes.

Tier 1: Aminu, Nurkic
Tier 2: Lillard, McCollum, Turner
Tier 3: Collins, Harkless

HOU: CP3 and Harden look like hard fades for me. Harden is the most expensive play on the board coming in $1000 more than Lillard at 10.7k. Anytime he is under 11k he has to be considered. Capela is worth a look too even though he hasn’t had a great game in awhile. For that reason he’s more a Tier 2 play for me especially when I can save $200 and play Nurkic on the other side.

Tier 1: CP3, Harden
Tier 2: Capela, Tucker, Ennis
Tier 3:

PHO @ SA (-12.5) o/u 218

PHO: The Spurs have not been that good defensively this year, but the back to back for the Suns worries me in terms of a possible blowout. They also just played the Clippers to an overtime game last night to add on a few more minutes of run. It’s going to be hard for me to roster anyone here. Ayton is relatively cheap and worth a look I suppose, although my favorite play is going to be Holmes. Holmes will get run regardless of the score so he’s safer in this one. Ariza and Jackson should still get 30+ minutes here with Warren most likely still on a minutes restriction.

Tier 1: Holmes (GPP)
Tier 2: Ariza, Josh Jackson, Ayton, Melton
Tier 3: Okobo, Bridges

SA: Popovich is not one to leave his starters in on either side of the blowout. He will look to sit LMA and Gay the first chance he gets so they are the riskiest plays here unless you think it stays close. Derozan is risky too especially with his price tag being inflated to $9200. It is hard to see him getting more than 30 minutes in this one. Keep an eye on the status of Bertans and Cunningham. If they are ruled out then Poeltl becomes interesting. He should get 20+ minutes depending on how competitive this game stays.

Tier 1: Forbes (GPP), White (GPP), Poeltl (GPP), Bertans (GPP if he plays)
Tier 2: Derozan, LMA, Gay
Tier 3:

TOR @ LAC (+4.5) o/u 226

TOR: So I’m coming back to this game and reevaluating after running some numbers last night and seeing the Raptors aren’t as good defensively on the road as we’d assume.. Lowry is cheap enough now to where I will have some exposure in GPPs. He has been awful of late, but he has to bounceback one of these days. Kawhi is in a great spot in regards to matchup as neither Harris or Gallo will be able to guard him. His price is just not too attractive. Siakam is a fairly safe play here but his price doesn’t offer much room for upside. I think Ibaka will get the majority of center minutes against Harrell even if Boban and Jonas start in this one. Last thing to note is that the Raptors are on the front end of a back to back here so pay attention to possible rest for players.

Tier 1: Lowry (GPP), Ibaka, Leonard
Tier 2: Siakam, Jonas (GPP), Green, VanVleet
Tier 3:

LAC: Lou Will exited early last night so that could open up some extra minutes in the backcourt if he misses the game tonight. That would give SGA, Beverley, and Bradley a boost. This isn’t a great matchup for anyone as the Raptors are a good defensive team from top to bottom. **Update here because it isn’t as bad of a matchup as I thought outside of small forward against Kawhi.. If Boban gets the start he is worth a GPP dart with his $3800 price tag. If this game stays competitive it will be because of Harris, Gallo, and/or Harrell most likely. Harris is my favorite play of those three and it makes sense to run him back with someone on the Raptors side because if Harris plays well that means this will be a competitive game which leads to a full complement of minutes for the other side. Hopefully that made sense…

Tier 1: Harris (GPP), Boban (if he starts GPP), Gallo
Tier 2: Harrell, SGA/Beverley (bump up if Lou Will is out), Lou Will (GPP if he plays)
Tier 3:

Good talk and good luck

NBA DFS – 12/10/2018

Starting the week off with a huge 11 game slate. We’re going by positions again. Let’s go

Point Guards:

Russell Westbrook $11000 vs UTA – Russ is back to his triple-double thing in 3 of the last 5. He’s too cheap for that upside against any team

Tim Frazier $4100 @ BOS – Frazier is getting solid run and has the best matchup against Kyrie in this one. As long as this game stays close he should have plenty of potential assists

Lonzo Ball $5200 vs MIA – Just too cheap here. Only downside is Lebron doing more against his former team

Monte Morris $3600 vs MEM – not a good matchup, but the backcourt is very thin. He will get minutes in the 25-30 range so needs consideration while he’s this cheap.

Ricky Rubio $6300 @ OKC – Targeting point guards against Russ is something I like doing. He usually brings it against the Thunder, but the back to back does lower the appeal a bit

Goran Dragic $6000 @ LAL – Pace up spot in a game that should stay competitive. If Richardson is ruled out that bumps him up considerably and brings Wade into the conversation

Jrue Holiday $8000 @ BOS – More of a play for me if AD sits out. He’s too cheap if AD misses, but fairly priced if AD is in.

Kyrie Irving $8900 vs NO – The pace up spot is appealing here. When they played earlier this year Kyrie had 58.25 DK fantasy points. If AD is out though the blowout potential increases making him a more risky play

NBA DFS – 12/9/2018

Happy Sunday. Let’s take a look at this rough 3 game slate real quick.

MIL @ TOR (-4.5) o/u 231

MIL: Pace down game in a tough matchup with the Raptors. Giannis has the highest ceiling on this slate, but with the matchup I don’t mind fading him. Lopez should get 30 min and is cheap. Not sure what the deal is with Middleton right now so I’ll be staying away for now. Bledsoe has been playing well except got into foul trouble last game. He should bounceback here.

Tier 1: Bledsoe (GPP)
Tier 2: Giannis, Lopez
Tier 3: Brogdon

TOR: Pace up spot here for the Raptors. Kawhi is my favorite play from the slate today. Siakam and Ibaka are fairly priced here. Lowry is coming down in price, but I would rather pay down to Bledsoe here.

Tier 1: Leonard
Tier 2: Siakam, Ibaka
Tier 3: Jonas (GPP)

UTA @ SA (+3.5) o/u 218

UTA: Gobert should be well rested for this one after being ejected in 3 minutes. Mitchell has been more miss than hit lately so I’ll be avoiding him for now. Crowder and Jingles aren’t too pricey, but are more lineup fillers compared to core plays.

Tier 1: Gobert, Rubio
Tier 2: Crowder, Jingles
Tier 3:

SA: LMA seems too cheap here at $7300. Outside of him I don’t really want to target anyone here. Gay and Derozan are more Tier 2 plays for me. Forbes and White are getting the start and are worth a look as punt plays. Mills off the bench should get some extra run too with the Spurs playing small and Bertans just being ruled out with Cunningham.

Tier 1: LMA, Mills (GPP)
Tier 2: Derozan, Gay, Forbes, White
Tier 3: Poeltl, Belinelli

CHA @ NY (+6) o/u 224

CHA: Kemba coming back up in price and we could see some extra Frank Ntilikina guarding him for French heritage night. Zeller is in a great spot against Kanter and Robinson and has seen minutes in the 30s recently so I like him the most from this game.

Tier 1: Zeller, Kemba (GPP)
Tier 2: Marvin, Lamb, Batum
Tier 3: Parker 

NY: Super hard to trust this rotation still. With it being French heritage night I do think Ntilikina gets more run and is worth a look as a dart in GPPs. Vonleh is still in play here as well as Kanter. Kanter is getting up in price while still only seeing 25-26 minutes so that comes with some risk, but this Hornet front court is beatable.

Tier 1: Ntilikina (GPP), Kanter (GPP), Vonleh
Tier 2: Hardaway, Robinson
Tier 3: Knox, Dotson, Trier, Mudiay

Good talk and good luck