DFS Week 12 – 11/25/2018

On to Week 12 and leftover turkey sandwiches. I’m sticking with the same format as last week and going position by position.

Quarterbacks:

Andrew Luck $6400 vs MIA: Miami is bad, bottom line. Luck has been rolling and I don’t expect the Dolphins to get in his way here. I’d expect him to be super chalky here.

Cam Newton $6200 vs SEA: Cam got a little nicked up last week, but doesn’t have an injury designation this week. He should continue to handle a majority of the

Russell Wilson $5600 @ CAR: The Panther’s defense has not been good of late so Russ should be able to do whatever he wants here.

Baker Mayfield $5500 @ CIN: Too cheap in my opinion here after the way we have seen the Bengals playing of late.

Andy Dalton $5300 vs CLE: Volume play here that should be very low-owned. Bengals need this win so they should come out throwing.

Lamar Jackson $5700 vs OAK: He is fast and should once again get a lot of his production on the ground here. Oakland is one of the slowest defenses in the look so I don’t hate that either.

Jameis Winston $6000 vs SF: Safe play here in my opinion. The Bucs should be able to bounceback here. Not to say he won’t throw a pick or two on top of the production, but he ha a decent floor here.

Josh McCown $4300 vs NE: Dart toss anyone? The Pats has been giving up plenty of fantasy points this year. At $4300 you have to give McCown a look.

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DFS Week 11 – 11/18/2018

Already Week 11 and almost Turkey Day. I am switching up the post this week and going by positions and breaking down my thoughts that way.

Quarterbacks:

Cam Newton $6200 at DET: Cam is my favorite play at QB this week. They get the Lions who have not been playing well, but should get a bump at home enough to keep it competitive. The Panthers are coming off their mini-bye week here as well after being embarrassed Pittsburgh setting up a solid bounceback spot here.

Drew Brees $6500 vs PHI: Philly’s secondary is super banged up so I would expect Drew to tear them apart. He is the most expensive QB on the slate at 6.5k so I won’t have all that much of him, but he is still a viable play.

Matt Ryan $6100 vs DAL: He plays better at home and the Cowboys’ pass defense gives up more pass yards per attempt with Sean Lee on the sidelines. Both of those give positive bumps to Matty Ice this week.

Dak Prescott $5200 at ATL: I don’t feel super comfortable here as this feels like a let down spot, but Dak is just too cheap to completely ignore.

Big Ben $5800 at JAX: Another play that I am not super comfortable playing, but again he just got a price cut of $500 after torching the Panthers for 5 TDs.

Ryan Fitzpatrick $5600 at NYG: The Giants are bad and the offensive play-calling duties have been given back to the OC Monken. We should see more offense here and people may be off of him after last week’s dud. Good GPP play with high upside.

Marcus Mariota $5500 at IND: Mariota hasn’t had a great game all year. He’s only thrown for over 300 yards once and hasn’t thrown over 2 TDs in a game yet this season. He is due for a breakout performance one of these days and at this price tag he has some appeal.

Josh Rosen $4800 vs OAK: This is strictly a GPP play. The Raiders are not competing whatsoever as noted by the 9 points they put up across the last 2 weeks and double digit losses. Rosen has definite upside if that trend continues.

Lamar Jackson $4700 vs CIN: Another GPP dart play here. It sounds like he is going to be sharing time with RG3 so that lowers my appeal, but for those who saw him in college you know he is capable of doing big things on the ground and through the air. Worth a dart toss in a GPP.

DFS Week 10 – 11/11/2018

NO @ CIN (+6) o/u 54

NO: Who dat? Nola is rolling, but now they have to travel outside the Superdome and into Bengal territory. On the road I don’t like to target Brees so that also bumps my appeal down for Michael Thomas a bit too. Both runningbacks are in play here, and if I had to choose one, I like Ingram a bit more on a point per $ basis.

Tier 1: Kamara, Ingram
Tier 2: Thomas
Darts: Tre’quan Smith
Punts:

CIN: No A.J. Green here unfortunately for the Bengals. Boyd and Uzomah should get a few more targets here against a weak pass defense. The Saints have done well against TEs this year, but with Green out he’s on the radar.

Tier 1: Dalton
Tier 2: Uzomah, Boyd
Darts: Ross
Punts:

ATL @ CLE (+6) o/u 51

ATL: Julio finally scored his first TD of the season last week and is in play again here. Cleveland does play better at home, but I can’t see them stopping the high-powered Atlanta attack

Tier 1: Julio, Coleman, Matt Ryan
Tier 2: Hooper
Darts: Ridley, Ito
Punts:

CLE: Cleveland kept the game a lot clozer than anyone thought they would against the Chiefs. This matchup could have a similar game script.

Tier 1: Jarvis, Duke, Baker Mayfield
Tier 2: Chubb
Darts: Calloway
Punts:

JAX @ IND (-3) o/u 47

JAX: Bortles is cheap and in a good spot here if you are paying down at QB. Outside of him there isn’t much appeal. Fournette returns, but he’s too pricey here for the uncertainty of his role on his first game back.

Tier 1: Bortles
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

IND: Similar situation here as the above Jags. Luck is a bit more expensive than Bortles, but still a good play.

Tier 1: Luck
Tier 2: Hilton, Doyle
Darts: Ebron
Punts:

DET @ CHI (-7) o/u 44

DET: Lions looked lost last week and out of synce without Tate in the lineup. This is a tough division matchup with the Bears and I’m not particularly high on anyone here until they figure out how to manage without Tate.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Golladay, Marvin Jones
Darts:
Punts:

CHI: Howard didn’t come up much in price after his 2 TD game last week. The Lions D has been weak against the run all year so he’s back in play again here.

Tier 1: Howard
Tier 2: Cohen, CHI D/ST
Darts:
Punts:

ARI @ KC (-17) o/u 50

ARI: Yeah this could get ugly quick… If I play anyone in this game it would be David Johnson, but that’s unlikely.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: David Johnson
Darts: Christian Kirk
Punts:

KC: As mentioned above, this game could get ugly quick. Hunt and some starters could be benched for the 4th in this one if it does get out of hand. Ware could be a nice GPP dart if the game does go that way.

Tier 1: KC D/ST, Hunt
Tier 2: Hill, Kelce, Mahomes
Darts: Ware
Punts:

NE @ TEN (+7) o/u 47.5

NE: Gronk is not expected to play in this one even though he did travel with the team. Edelman is my favorite of the bunch here, but they all have been priced up enough to lower my appeal.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Edelman, White, Gordon, Brady
Darts:
Punts:

TEN: The Titans got a tough challenge against the Pats  as noted by the home underdog of a touchdown by Vegas. Mariota is super cheap here though and worth a look. Same with Dion Lewis as he takes on his former team.

Tier 1: Mariota, Dion Lewis
Tier 2: Corey Davis
Darts:
Punts:

WAS @ TB (-3) o/u 51

WAS: The Redskins just got destroyed by Atlanta and now take on another explosive offense in the Bucs. They will need to score points to stay in this game which shouldn’t be too hard here.

Tier 1: Alex Smith, AP
Tier 2: Maurice Harris, WAS D/ST
Darts: Vernon Davis
Punts:

TB: Does Winston get the job back the next time Fitzmagic struggles now? That is going to be a question I ask every time I go to roster him. Bottom line is though that right now he is in a good spot. The nonexistent running game and inability for the defense to get off the field forces the Bucs to throw often. This may not be good for the Bucs, but it’d good for DFS.

Tier 1: Fitz, Evans 
Tier 2: Godwin, Humphries
Darts: Desean
Punts:

BUF @ NYJ (-75) o/u 36.5

BUF: What a game lined up here. I won’t be tuning in to say the least, and also not looking here for DFS purposes either. The only player worth a thought is Lesean McCoy with his $4500 price tag.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Shady
Darts:
Punts:

NYJ: Elijah is cheap at least if you need a punt RB play. If not then I will be staying away from this one.

Tier 1: NYJ D/ST
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts: Elijah McGuire

LAC @ OAK (+10) o/u 49.5

LAC: Another game not probably not worth watching, but better for DFS. The Raiders are in full tank mode and just made the 49ers with an undrafted QB look great last week. This could be a bigger blowout than the 10 point spread calls for. Ekeler could get some extra run here so be weary a bit if using Gordon this week.

Tier 1: Gordon, Rivers, Keenan, LAC D/ST
Tier 2: Ekeler, Mike Williams, Tyrell Williams
Darts:
Punts:

OAK: No thank you Chuckie.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

MIA @ GB (-10) o/u 47.5

MIA: Another lopsided affair here in which I’ll be avoiding the road Dolphins…

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

GB: The Pack attack should bounceback here against the Dolphins. After playing the Rams and Patriots the last two weeks they now get an easier matchup with the Dolphins. Jones is starting to take over the backfield (which he should’ve done 5 weeks ago) and looks like a decent value with the 5k price tag.

Tier 1: Jones, Rodgers, Davante
Tier 2: GB D/ST, Graham, Valdez-Scantling
Darts:
Punts:

SEA @ LAR (-9.5) o/u 50.5

SEA: If Chris Carson sits then Mike Davis is a great play. Even if he plays he could be limited so Mike Davis is still a great play at $4300. He should get carries regardless and the Rams haven’t been stopping many people on the ground lately.

Tier 1: Mike Davis (less appeal if Carson plays), Russ
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

LAR: Gurley is a beast and is going to set the tone with the Rams once again. All 3 receivers here can go off, but I like Woods a bit more than the others this week. This could stay competitive with it being a division game as well which is good if you are targeting this offense.

Tier 1: Gurley, Woods
Tier 2: Kupp, Cooks
Darts:
Punts:

 

Good talk and good luck

DFS Week 9 – 11/4/2018

10 games on the main slate again this week. Here we go.

CHI @ BUF (+10) o/u 37.5

CHI: Howard is down to $4700 in this one. With the Vegas spread set for a blowout it could play to his advantage. I do like him more than Cohen for sure as he should get 20 or so carries and possibly a touchdown. With Tarik you are hoping for a few big plays from him. At the $6200 price tag I will pass.

Tier 1: Howard, CHI D/ST
Tier 2: Cohen, Gabriel
Darts:
Punts:

BUF: Same thing as every other week here for the Bills.. nothing.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

TB @ CAR (-6.5) o/u 55

TB: Fitzmagic has retaken the starting gig at QB for this week after Jameis’s dismal 4 interception performance against the Bengals. He will probably be super chalky at his $5500 price point. The Bucs have shown zero run game so that only increases the appeal for him and the passing attack. Desean probably gets the biggest bump with him back if we compare stats.

Tier 1: Fitzmagic, Howard, Evans, Desean
Tier 2: Godwin
Darts: Barber (super cheap)
Punts:

CAR: Tampa has little to no defense and one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Cam got a price bump but still has to be considered here. Moore, Funchess, and Olsen are also in consideration. I like Moore the most once you look at the salaries.

Tier 1: Cam, Moore, McCaffrey
Tier 2: Funchess, Olsen
Darts:
Punts:

KC @ CLE (+9) o/u 52.5

KC: KC will try to keep it rolling as they head into Cleveland this week. Mahomes is always in play as long as you can squeeze him into your lineup. Hill at 8k lowers my appeal some. Kelce is fairly expensive as well, but great for GPP’s with his high ceiling.

Tier 1: Mahomes, Kelce, Watkins
Tier 2: Hill
Darts:
Punts:

CLE: The runningback coach is taking over playcalling duties this week. Without any experience this could be really bad, or benefit the players. Landry is sneaky play that could get

Tier 1: Chubb, Landry
Tier 2: Baker Mayfield, Njoku
Darts:
Punts:

NYJ @ MIA (-3) o/u 42.5

NYJ: Jets on the road in Miami.. yeah moving right along here.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Crowell, McGuire
Punts:

MIA: Another team to fade for me. Next!

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Drake
Punts:

PIT @ BAL (-2) o/u 47

PIT: Baltimore has a tough defense especially at home. I won’t have much exposure to this matchup. The usual targets are not much more than dart throws with their price tags to me.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Conner, AB, Vance, JuJu
Punts:

BAL: The Raven’s offense has an exploitable matchup this week. Flacco will be throwing the ball a lot like always, and is only $5300. Crabtree is my favorite receiver of the bunch in this one. Brown is more of a GPP dart with his low floor.

Tier 1: Crabtree, Flacco
Tier 2:
Darts: Snead, John Brown
Punts:

DET @ MIN (-5) o/u 48.5

DET: With Golden Tate being shipped out to Philly, the remaining receiving core of Jones and Golladay get a bump up. They are relatively cheap and priced similarly with neither above $5500.

Tier 1: Golladay
Tier 2: Stafford, Jones, Kerryon
Darts:
Punts:

MIN: Diggs will probably sit this one out which then sends Laquon Treadwell to the starting lineup. Theilen has been on a tear and has to be in consideration as he looks to keep the 100 yards streak alive. Rudolph will also get a slight bump with Diggs out. At $3600 Rudolph looks like a steal.

Tier 1: Theilen, Rudolph
Tier 2: Murray, Cousins
Darts:
Punts: Treadwell

ATL @ WAS (-2) o/u 48

ATL: Matt Ryan outside of the home dome always gets me worries a bit. His price tag of $5700 definitely increases my appeal as he should still be able to reach value here in a close game that he may have to throw a lot in. Julio is due for a TD one of these games, and what better way to get it than against his old rival Josh Norman?

Tier 1: Julio, Matt Ryan
Tier 2: Hooper
Darts: Ridley
Punts:

WAS: Chris Thompson has been ruled out this week. Bibbs should be involved a bit, and AP becomes an even better play at 6k. Alex Smith seems way too cheap here in a game he should have to be throwing to keep pace with the Falcons.

Tier 1: AP, Alex Smith
Tier 2: Paul Richardson
Darts: Bibbs
Punts:

HOU @ DEN (-1) o/u 46

HOU: Demaryius Thomas is now on the away team in Denver. He steps into the number 2 WR roll and should get plenty of field time with Fuller and Coutee already ruled out. Deshaun is too expensive, while Lamar is too cheap .

Tier 1: Miller
Tier 2: Thomas, Hopkins
Darts:
Punts:

DEN: Sutton is going to be another chalk play of the day. He is cheap and in play bottom line. Sanders gets a bump as with DT leaving town and should be even more of the focal point in the Denver offense. No Royce again so back to the Phillip Lindsay well.

Tier 1: Lindsay, Sutton, Sanders
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

LAC @ SEA (even) o/u 47.5

LAC: The Chargers are coming off the by week and should get Melvin Gordon back. The offense runs through him so he is always in play as long as he is playing. At receiver Allen has a favorable matchup that he should be able to take advantage of.

Tier 1: Keenan Allen
Tier 2: Rivers, Gordon, Mike Williams
Darts:
Punts:

SEA: The news to pay attention for is whether or not Carson is playing in this game. If he’s out Mike Davis should get the bulk of the carries with Penny backing him up. David Moore is a punt play at receiver if you need another one. Other than that not much interest in Seattle.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Carson (if he plays)
Darts:
Punts: David Moore

LAR @ NO (+2) o/u 57.5

LAR: The Saints have been solid against the run, and terrible against the pass so far this season.  It will be interesting to see if they can slow Gurley at all in this one. If they can then the passing attack only gets more appeal. This is also a revenge game for Cooks so he gets a bump for that as well.

Tier 1: Woods, Goff
Tier 2: Gurley, Kupp, Cooks
Darts:
Punts:

NO: The Saints are going to have to score to keep up in this one. Kamara is too cheap in my opinion here even with Ingram back. Game script could help him out more as well. Thomas is in a similar boat here and also in play.

Tier 1: Brees, Kamara, Thomas
Tier 2: Ingram, Watson
Darts:
Punts:

 

Good talk and good luck

DFS Week 8 – 10/28/2018

Sunday fun football day. 10 games on the main slate today, let’s jump in.

NYJ @ CHI (-8) o/u 44

NYJ: The Jets in Chicago are basically an auto fade for me. Kearse should get more than 0 fpts this week and Crowell is cheap, but regardless I’ll pass on them.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Crowell, Kearse
Punts:

CHI: This is a great game for the Chi town D to get back on track. With the Vegas spread largely favoring the Bears this could be a Jordan Howard game. Tarik has been more involved and his price has risen because of it. Still the backfield split worries me a bit. Mitch up to 6.1k seems a bit pricey to me now. His WRs are so hit or miss they are complete darts as well.

Tier 1: CHI D/ST
Tier 2: Jordan Howard, Tarik Cohen
Darts: Gabriel, Robinson
Punts:

 

DEN @ KC (-9.5) o/u 53.5

DEN: Denver’s defense is what facilitated last weeks win against the Cards. This week Keenum will have to do something if it is going to stay close. I’m not putting too much faith in that. Lindsay is going to get a lot of work with Freeman out this game. Booker looks like a dart toss. Sanders is the one receiver I’d be interested in here is if you trust Keenum to get the ball to him.

Tier 1: Lindsay
Tier 2: Sanders
Darts: Booker, Sutton
Punts:

KC: Mahomes is hard to not avoid at this point. $7000 is fairly cheap considering the high ceiling and floor he has shown this season. Hunt has been getting his groove back from last year and should keep it going here. Hill and Kelce are too expensive for me.

Tier 1: Mahomes, Hunt
Tier 2: Hill, Kelce
Darts:
Punts:

WAS @ NYG (+1) o/u 43.5 

WAS: AP looks to be in a good spot here with the Giants trading away their starting DT. Chris Thompson is questionable to play and if he sits only adds to AP’s appeal. Not interested in much else here. Alex Smith is cheap and may be able to reach value. The Giants also traded their best DB in Apple so that could open up more air space for Smith to work with.

Tier 1: AP
Tier 2: Thompson, Reed
Darts: Smith, Richardson
Punts:

NYG: The Giants look to be on a downward spiral. Barkley gives them a glimmer of hope, but they already seem to be looking forward to next year’s draft. Beckham gets a tough matchup with Norman this week which should open it up for Sterling Shepard.

Tier 1: Barkley, Shepard
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

BAL @ CAR (+2.5) o/u 44

BAL: Flacco is cheap and could reach value if you are looking to punt at QB. Brown is the WR of choice for me if you want exposure here.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: John Brown
Darts:
Punts: Flacco

CAR: The Panthers are all on sale with the price bump down due to facing the Ravens D. I Cam is worth a look at his price because he is the offense. McCaffrey too at 7k is fairly intriguing.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: McCaffrey (GPP), Cam
Darts:
Punts:

SEA @ DET (-3) o/u 49

SEA: Detroit’s defense is beatable. Moore is a sneaky play at WR who has back to back solid games. Baldwin if he plays is a nice play as well. The backfield is tricky and never consistent so good luck throwing darts there. My favorite play there is Carson again, but we saw how he was used last game. Penny, Davis, or Carson could lead that backfield.

Tier 1: Baldwin
Tier 2:
Darts: Moore, Carson, Penny, Davis
Punts:

DET: Kerryon looked good last week and has a chance to double down this week against the Seahawks. He should get the majority of work again with Theo still out. Out of the receiving core I like Golladay the best. He gets the most looks in the redzone too so that bumps his appeal up as well.

Tier 1: Golladay
Tier 2: Kerryon, Tate
Darts:
Punts:

TB @ CIN (-3.5) o/u 54.5

TB: Cincy’s defense has had it rough the last couple games against Pitt and KC. They could be more inspired and possibly bounceback, but I will still be on TB side this game. Winston slings the ball and should be able to get a few TDs here as the Bengals give up a lot of receiving TDs. Godwin’s price hasn’t moved far away from where we see him at right now. Really like him as a value play.

Tier 1: Evans, Winston, Howard
Tier 2:
Darts: Desean
Punts: Godwin

CIN: A.J. Green is in a great spot here and one of my favorite stud receivers this week. Boyd had a bad game last week in a good spot against KC, but should bounceback here. Tampa Bay has given up a lot of points to tight ends this year so you have to have Uzomah on your radar as well.

Tier 1: Dalton, Uzomah, Green, Boyd
Tier 2: Mixon
Darts:
Punts:

CLE @ PIT (-8.5) o/u 48.5

CLE: Not much to like here outside of Landry and Njoku. Landry is the guy and should get plenty of targets here. They should be throwing a lot to keep up with Pitt. Chubb scares me for that reason so if you want a RB from this game you should look to Duke.

Tier 1: Landry, Njoku
Tier 2: Baker
Darts: Duke
Punts:

PIT: James Conner has had back to back 30 fantasy point games and is still fairly priced at 7.5k. He going to be very chalky here especially with the weather forecast calling for rain. Also with the rain I don’t have much appeal for the passing attack.

Tier 1: James Conner
Tier 2: AB
Darts: Juju, Big Ben
Punts:

IND @ OAK (+3) o/u 51

IND: Andrew Luck is starting to look like the old Andrew Luck. He is going to be slinging the rock all game no matter the score. Mack is in a great spot.. if he plays. Keep an eye on him to make sure he is active. Inman is back and should help Luck even more. At 3k he’s worth a look.

Tier 1: Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton, Mack (if he plays)
Tier 2: Rogers, Ebron
Darts: Inman
Punts:

OAK: The Raiders are going through some turmoil themselves after trading Cooper and seemingly having everyone on the trade block. Gruden is definitely making his mark and we’ll see if it’s for the better down the road. Jordy is now the number 1 receiver and will probably be very chalky. Bryant is a dart here and also cheap.

Tier 1: Jordy
Tier 2: Richard, Martin
Darts: Martavis Bryant, Carr
Punts:

SF @ ARI (+1.5) o/u 41.5

SF: Breida is questionable and may end up playing in this one. If he sits Mostert is a good punt play. He should also be involved in the passing game a bit more with Garcon out.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Kittle
Darts: Goodwin
Punts: Mostert

ARI: New OC for the Cardinals. We haven’t had many chances to roster David Johnson this year yet this week looks like one of them. He should be low-owned as well with the other elite backs on this slate.

Tier 1: David Johnson
Tier 2:
Darts: Larry Fitzgerald
Punts:

GB @ LAR (-9) o/u 57

GB: Packers should be fresh off the bye week ready to jump right back in against the undefeated Rams. Rodgers will be having to throw a lot this week and the Rams have not looked as good as we thought they were on defense after losing Aqib Talib. In what should be a shootout you should have some exposure. I keep waiting on McCarthy to let go of the reins on Jones, but he is determined to kill all value for all 3 backs in the committee approach that hasn’t been working. Until he is fired everyone in this backfield are strictly dart throws.

Tier 1: Rodgers, Davante, Allison
Tier 2: Graham
Darts: Jones
Punts:

LAR: The Rams are going to be without Kupp in this one. Cooks looks like a great play here after Goodwin and Diggs destroyed the Packer’s secondary. Gurley at 9.8k is hard to pass on with the floor he provides himself. Packers will have to focus on stopping some part of the Rams attack and it probably will be to try and slow down Gurley.

Tier 1: Gurley, Cooks, Woods
Tier 2: Goff
Darts:
Punts:

 

Good talk and good luck

DFS Week 7 – 10/21/18

Week 7 here we go…. bye week for the Packers, Raiders, Steelers, and Seahawks. Sticking with the main slate on DK so the London game between Titans and Chargers is not on here as well.

Tier 1: Borderline lock plays with a decent chance to be consistent and reach value.
Tier 2: Step below the above.
Darts: High risk high reward players that should be lower-owned
Punts: Value option that has an increased role or a decent matchup to consider.

CLE @ TB (-3.5) o/u 52.5

CLE: Cleveland is going to have to put up some points to stay in this one. Chalk of the week is going to be Nick Chubb after Hyde was traded to the Jaguars earlier this week. Duke is worth a look too. The receiving core is also short handed so bump up Landry, Njoku, and Callaway even for a dart.

Tier 1: Nick Chubb, Duke Johnson, Njoku
Tier 2: Landry, Baker
Darts: Callaway
Punts:

TB: Tampa has a lot of weapons on offense and are put to good use with their defense unable to stop anybody. Both Evans and Godwin have big play ability so I give Godwin a notch higher since he’s cheaper. Evans is a beast and shouldn’t have trouble against Ward if they try to shadow him. Howard at TE is back healthy now so he’s in play as well.

Tier 1: Evans, Jameis, Godwin
Tier 2: Howard, Jackson
Darts:
Punts:

CAR @ PHI (-5) o/u 45

CAR: I feel like I say the same thing every week about the Panthers. They are still getting a majority of the offense from Cam and Christian. Other than that I don’t have much interest in them on the road in Philly.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

PHI: Wentz steps up at home and is fairly cheap at 6k. Alshon and Ertz are getting the majority of the looks on offense and are fairly priced right now. Stacking one of them with Wentz may not be a terrible strategy.

Tier 1:  Wentz, Ertz
Tier 2: Alshon
Darts:
Punts:

MIN @ NYJ (+3.5) o/u 46

MIN: Minnesota has struggled against weak teams already this season and even though the Jets aren’t as weak as the others, they have played like it a couple weeks. The brightest spot on this offense is Theilen who has absolutely been a monster through the first 6 weeks. Hard to fade him at this point. No Cook in this one means Murray is back at the helm.

Tier 1: Theilen, Diggs
Tier 2: Cousins, Murray
Darts:
Punts:

NYJ: Not sure what Jets team we will get this week. Fading until further notice.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

DET @ MIA (+3) o/u 46.5

DET: Kerryon at $4500 is intriguing to me. All of the receiving core is fairly priced, but none stand out as superior options to the others.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Kerryon, Tate, Golladay
Darts:
Punts:

MIA: Miami put up a lot of points last week, but I think that was a fluke. Albert Wilson is cheap and will probably come back down to Earth, but he has the most upside in this one and could pay off his price tag still. Gore is a cheap RB punt play if you need one.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Albert Wilson
Darts: Drake
Punts: Frank Gore

NE @ CHI (+3) o/u 49

NE: New England looks like they will be without Gronk in this one. Still they are favored on the road. All the receivers get a slight bump. Still no one stands out as an elite play imo and better value is to be found.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Edelman, Brady, Hogan, White
Darts:
Punts:

CHI: Tarik Cohen has taken on a larger role in the passing attack in the recent weeks. I like him at this price point in a game that the Bears may get behind in and have to throw more. Trubisky is cheap and viable here as well for the same reason.

Tier 1: Trubisky, Tarik
Tier 2: Gabriel
Darts:
Punts:

BUF @ IND (-7) o/u 43

BUF: Buffalo is starting Derek Anderson after being on the team for 8 days. He’s cheap so I guess could be worth a dart throw. Still fading this team for now.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Derek Anderson
Punts:

IND: Colts are another team that hasn’t figured out how to be consistent yet. Ebron is the only option worth thinking about on offense. Colts defense should be a solid play here as well.

Tier 1: IND D/ST
Tier 2: Ebron
Darts:
Punts:

HOU @ JAX (-4) o/u 41.5

HOU: Watson and this offense has not looked the greatest. The Cowboys did just beat down the Jags so there is some hope for the offense in this one. Watson is cheap, but is nothing more than a GPP dart throw in this one. Hopkins will probably get shadowed by Ramsey, but he’s also relatively cheap so can be considered. Coutee is cheap and should draw easier coverage in this one if you want to pivot off Hopkins or get any exposure to this one.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Coutee, Hopkins
Darts: Watson, Fuller
Punts:

JAX: Bortles is very inconsistent, but at home he plays a bit better. $5200 is a fair price here for him. The other plays here are all meh to me. I am uninterested until we can see some consistency.

Tier 1: Bortles, JAX D/ST
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

NO @ BAL (-2.5) o/u 49

NO: This is going to be a tough one for the Saints I suspect. On the road and outdoors are not where Brees plays his best. Brees has been priced down to account for these things, but this whole offense is on fade for me this week.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Thomas
Darts:
Punts:

BAL: The Saints have struggled to defend this season and this game it shouldn’t be any different. John Brown and Snead going against his old team are higher to me on this one compared to Crabtree. I think Lattimore will guard him and slow him down some.

Tier 1: Snead, John Brown, Flacco
Tier 2: Crabtree
Darts: Hurst
Punts:

DAL @ WAS (+1) o/u 41.5

DAL: Zeke or bust here. He’s the only play worth considering in my book.

Tier 1: Zeke
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

WAS: The offense is banged up and the Cowboys are no slouch on defense. Not interested in anyone here. Bibbs could be a dart throw if Chris Thompson gets ruled out.

Tier 1: 
Tier 2:
Darts: Bibbs (if Thomson is out)
Punts:

LAR @ SF (+10) o/u 52

LAR: No Cupp here in this one so Woods and Cooks get a bump for that reason. Gurley is expensive but still elite and needs exposure to. The niners should be able to put up points at home and keep this close.

Tier 1: Gurley
Tier 2: Goff, Woods, Cooks
Darts:
Punts:

SF: The Rams defense has not been as solid as we all expected them to be since Aqib went down. The Niners being at home should be able to put some points on the board. They will be throwing a lot and at there is definite value here.

Tier 1: Beathard
Tier 2: Garcon, Kittle
Darts: Goodwin
Punts:

 

 

DFS Week 6 – 10/14/18

Jumping right into breaking down these Week 6 games… bye week for the Lions and Saints.

Tier 1: Borderline lock plays with a decent chance to be consistent and reach value.
Tier 2: Step below the above.
Darts: High risk high reward players that should be lower-owned
Punts: Value option that has an increased role or a decent matchup to consider.

TB @ ATL (-3) o/u 57.50

TB: Jameis is set to take over for the high-powered Bucs offense in his first start this season. Right away he gets a great matchup against the Falcons in what should be a high scoring shootout as implied by the 57.5 point Vegas total. Definitely gonna need some exposure to this one..

Tier 1: Jameis Winston, Chris Godwin
Tier 2: Mike Evans, Desean Jackson
Darts: Ronald Jones, Jacquizz, Cameron Brate (like him, but ATL has defended TE well this season), Adam Humphries
Punts:

ATL: The Falcons extended their losing streak to 3 and have given up over 40 ppg over those last 3. Those may be correlated, you never know. They do get to return home and go against another team that doesn’t play defense. Matt Ryan should look more like himself this week in this perfect bounce back spot.

Tier 1: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Sanu, Hooper
Tier 2: Tevin (border tier 1 if Devonta is out), Freeman (if he plays), Ridley (better value to be found with his price)
Darts:
Punts:

ARI @ MIN (-10) o/u 43

ARI: Not much to see here on the road in Minnesota. The only play slightly tempting here is David Johnson at $5900. That is cheap price and Minnesota’s defense is banged up; I suspect they will load the box and try to force Rosen to beat them. Now if you think lightning can strike twice and they can pull a Buffalo, go ahead and stack this game.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: David Johnson
Punts:

MIN: The Vikings have been relying heavily on the pass game so far this season. The defense has not been the dominant force of the last couple years, but they may look that part this week. The receivers are priced way up now to a point where it is hard to justify paying for them this week with the likely gameflow to feature a mix of Dalvin, Roc, and Latavius.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Roc Thomas, Dalvin Cook
Punts: Latavius Murray

CAR @ WAS (-1) o/u 44.5

CAR: The Panthers barely escaped last week on a game winning 63 yard field. They now look to take that momentum into Washington after the Redskins just got destroyed by the Saints. Kinda surprised to see the Panthers as underdogs here, but that may be more because of recency bias. Olsen looks to be on track to come back this week as well which may lead to a slight decrease in usage for McCaffrey.

Tier 1: Christian McCaffrey (getting pricey)
Tier 2: Cam Newton
Darts:
Punts:

WAS: It is anyone’s guess what Redskins team we’ll see show up this weekend. They have been awful some weeks and stellar the next. Pair that with their banged up offense and I don’t see much reason to play anyone on this team unless Thompson and AP end up being ruled out. Kapri Bibbs would need to have some exposure at that point.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Jamison Crowder
Darts:
Punts: Kapri Bibbs (if Chris Thompson and AP are ruled out)

CHI @ MIA (+3.5) o/u 41.5

CHI: Bears are coming off a bye week and now travel into Miami to take on the Dolphins. This is not a game that jumps of the page as something exciting for fantasy football or exciting to watch in general. Staying away from this game for the most part.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Trey Burton, CHI D/ST
Darts: Tarik Cohen
Punts:

MIA: Dolphins are currently 3-2 which is still better than most expected. Not much to see here as I said above. Vegas says this stays close and they might be right only because this is is in Miami.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Albert Wilson
Punts:

BUF @ HOU (-10) o/u 41

BUF: The Bills have won 2 games now, which is 2 more than I thought they would have at this point in the season. They are looking to build off the win against Tennessee as they travel to Houston to face a more potent offense. Once again there isn’t much to see here..

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

HOU: Houston looks like they are starting to turn it around after the 0-3 start. Buffalo will help get them back to .500 this week. Tre’Davious White is the bright spot for the Bills defense and he should be matched up with Hopkins. This means Keke and Fuller get a bump up.

Tier 1: Keke Coutee (good value here)
Tier 2: Will Fuller (too pricy for my blood, but still has that high ceiling), Deandre Hopkins
Darts:
Punts:

LAC @ CLE (even) o/u 46

LAC: The Chargers have been solid on offense with the Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon show. The Browns have shown an improved defense, but I don’t think that will be enough to stop LA in this one. Volume should still be there for Melvin unless they get behind and have to throw more.

Tier 1: Melvin (should be lower-owned than usual here)
Tier 2: Phillip (price drop is intriguing)
Darts: Mike Williams, Ekeler
Punts:

CLE: All aboard the hype train. I have not jumped on yet, but I may soon. The Chargers are a good test for the Browns this week who get the benefit of playing at home. That gives them a bump, but as I said above, I don’t think it will be enough. On offense they are a little short handed this week in the receiver department.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Jarvis Landry, Baker Mayfield
Darts:
Punts:

SEA @ OAK (+2.5) o/u 48.5

SEA: Seattle finally woke up for their division game against the Rams last week and were able to put up some points. It looks like they are trying to keep it on the ground more with the one-two punch of Chris Carson and Mike Davis. Both are cheap and in play here, just more risky as they are splitting carries.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

OAK: The Raiders are underdogs at home in this matchup with Seattle. No one is going to be more motivated than Marshawn Lynch in this one. The only thing that would make have made this game sweeter was it being in Seattle.

Tier 1: Marshawn Lynch
Tier 2: Jordy Nelson
Darts: Cooper (he has followed up his shit games with monster games, just in case that trend continues I will have a little exposure)
Punts:

PIT @ CIN (-1.5) o/u 51.5

PIT: Another high scoring affair for the Steelers this week as they face off against the Bengals. The Bengals have had a decent run D and Burfict is getting up to game speed so I expect the Steelers to have to do more damage in the air. Only issue there is that Ben seems to struggle more on the road. That being said, this game starts to feel like a trap game.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Antonio Brown (obligatory), James Conner
Darts:
Punts:

CIN: Bengals defense stepped up last week to get them the W over the Dolphins. They get a bit tougher opponent coming to town this week against the Steelers in a division game. I actually like this spot for the Bengals, but don’t think the game will be as much of a shootout as Vegas is calling for.

Tier 1: Tyler Boyd (price is getting up there, border tier 2)
Tier 2: A.J. Green, Mixon
Darts: CIN D/ST
Punts: C.J. Uzomah

IND @ NYJ (-2.5) o/u 45.5

IND: The Colts are are coming off their mini bye week after playing last Thursday in New England. Now they get to travel again to New York to take on the Jets. The offense is banged up with T.Y. ruled out and Ebron dealing with multiple injuries. It looks like Ebron will be playing and he should be the number one target on offense with Chester Rogers and Hines helping out.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Ebron
Darts: Chester Rogers, Hines
Punts:

NYJ: The Jets are at home again this week after beating the Broncos and are a little beat up themselves. Keep an eye on Isaiah Crowell because if he sits then Powell becomes a solid play here.

Tier 1: Bilal Powell (if Crowell sits)
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

LAR @ DEN (+7) o/u 51.5

LAR: The Rams are looking like one of the best if not the best team in the league. They are headed to Denver to the altitude and what looks to be snow for Sunday. Denver has been getting ran all over and Todd Gurley should be able to do the same. Kupp and Cooks look like they will play, but I doubt they are 100% after being limited all week in practice.

Tier 1: Todd Gurley
Tier 2: Kupp, Cooks, Woods
Darts:
Punts:

DEN: Denver is happy to be coming home where at least they have been able to keep games competitive. Unfortunately they also get the Rams coming to town. The Rams D has been giving up points so there is still some chance of keeping it close if Keenan can move the ball.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Sanders, Thomas, Lindsay
Darts:
Punts:

JAX @ DAL (+3) o/u 40.5

JAX: What Jags team will we get this week? The low Vegas total has me disinterested in this game. Add that to the rising prices of the Jags players and it makes sense to look elsewhere for value. The one thing they have going for them is Sean Lee has been ruled out. That should open up the rushing attack for Yeldon.

Tier 1: Yeldon (he should get all the volume and with Lee out could be sneaky), JAX D/ST
Tier 2: Westbrook, Bortles, Cole
Darts:
Punts:

DAL: Not much to see here. They have no offense and now get to take on one of the best defenses in the league. Zeke’s price is down to 7k because of the matchup, and between him and Geoff Swaim there are no other plays here worth throwing darts at.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Zeke
Punts: Swaim

BAL @ TEN (+2.5) o/u 41.5

BAL: Baltimore just had a field goal competition in Cleveland last week and now head into Tennessee for another offensive struggle of a game versus the Titans. I expect this to be low-scoring and ugly on both sides.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Crabtree (cheap and getting the targets), John Brown
Punts:

TEN: Titans beat the defending champs one week, and then go lose to the Bills the next. They get the Ravens now back at home in what looks to be a game worth mostly avoiding.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Mariota, Corey Davis
Punts: