NBA DFS – 12/15/2018

Happy 6 game Saturday, let’s get it

LAL @ CHA (+2) o/u 227

LAL: Lebron’s history against Charlotte is hard to ignore, and at 10.7k he seems too cheap to try and avoid completely. Ball is another play that seems too cheap here with Rondo still out making his minutes in the 34-36 range secure. McGee is currently questionable so if he sits Tyson Chandler becomes a great punt play at $3600. Kuzma is too pricey for me, but he has been playing well of late.

Tier 1: Lebron, Ball
Tier 2: McGee, Hart
Tier 3: Kuzma

CHA: The Hornets just played an OT game last night and now get a pace up matchup with the Lakers. Lamb is too cheap here at $5300 only. Batum finally had a good game, but it was also his birthday yesterday so if you play him then hopefully he didn’t over indulge last night. Zeller is also in play here as centers against the Lakers have been a solid play this year.

Tier 1: Zeller, Lamb
Tier 2: Batum
Tier 3:

BOS @ DET (+2.5) o/u 214

BOS: Boston is also on a back to back here after playing beating Atlanta easily last night. Baynes is most likely on a minutes restriction still else he would be one to target with Horford out. Hopefully this game can stay competitive so we see Kyrie and company get their full workload. Hayward is a sneaky play here to me at his price point and should go overlooked especially with him coming off the bench.

Tier 1: Hayward (GPP)
Tier 2: Kyrie, Baynes (sounding like he doesn’t have a minutes restriction tonight)
Tier 3: Robert Williams (GPP), Theis

DET: I don’t have much interest in the Pistons here. Drummond and Reggie Jackson are worth a look, but are more in play because of their prices. Ish still out makes Reggie Jackson’s minutes more secure while Zaza being out bumps up Drummond a couple himself.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Drummond, Reggie Jackson
Tier 3:

HOU @ MEM (+3.5) o/u 201

HOU: This is setting up to be a very slow paced game, and the slowest on this slate by a wide margin. No one stands out here to me. Eric Gordon is questionable so if he sits then you could bump up GG and House a bit, but I still won’t really be looking to them for much.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Harden, GG (if Gordon ruled out)
Tier 3:

MEM: Much like the Rockets there isn’t much I like here. Anderson and Conley are listed as questionable so if they sit that could open up some value between Mack, MarShon, and Selden. Temple is intriguing at his cheap price tag. He shot well last game and is locked into 30+ minutes every night.

Tier 1: Temple (GPP), Mack (only a play if Conley is out)
Tier 2: Conley, Gasol, Anderson, Green (bump up if Anderson is out)
Tier 3:

CHI @ SA (-11) o/u 214

CHI: No LaVine tonight so Dunn has moved into the starting lineup. Jabari is seemingly out of the rotation now for who knows why. If Dunn gets closer to 30 minutes tonight he becomes my favorite play from this team. Markkannen has a bad matchup defensively with Gay, but he should be fine getting his shots off against him. Holiday should get a bump here in minutes with LaVine being out too.

Tier 1: Dunn (GPP), Markkannen
Tier 2: Harrison, Arcidiacono, Holiday
Tier 3:

SA: Blowout potential here once again for the Spurs as they are 11 point favorites. LMA is going to be the target here. He is still too cheap and he can easily dominate in limited minutes to pay off the price tag. If he somehow gets closer to 30 minutes he has lots of upside. Demar is priced a bit too high for me while White could be a look as a punt play if you need it.

Tier 1: LMA, White
Tier 2: Demar, Gay
Tier 3:

LAC @ OKC (-6.5) o/u 224

LAC: Whoever PG guards between Harris and Gallo, I would rather have the other one. Regardless, Tobias seems too cheap here at 7k. Yeah he has had a couple down games, but that was due to blowouts. This one should stay closer if not for any other reason than OKC is on a back to back. Gallinari is also in play here at his $6300 price tag, but again if I’m only playing one I do prefer Harris more. Outside of them I don’t have much appeal for anyone in the backcourt. Beverley is the cheapest so maybe go there if you have to.

Tier 1: Gallinari, Harris
Tier 2: Boban (if he starts), Beverley
Tier 3:

OKC: Westbrook is still probably pissed off from last night’s tough loss to the Nuggets. He’s definitely in play especially if you don’t want to play the chalky Lebron. PG is also in play here as they really have no one that can match with him. His price has come up so that should keep him lower owned. Grant is also fairly cheap and worth some exposure here.

Tier 1: PG, Adams
Tier 2: Westbrook, Grant
Tier 3:

MIN @ PHO (+7.5) o/u 217

MIN: No Taj tonight so that means Saric is going to be the chalkiest play at $4200. KAT is also in a great spot even with his $9800 price tag. Ayton has not played defense this year as centers have routinely gone off against the Suns. Covington’s price has also come down to playable territory again as long as he suits up. The other play I like here is Rose. This game could easily be played with Cov at the 4 and a lot of 2 point guard sets. He’s in good form and in a good spot for GPPs especially

Tier 1: Covington, KAT, Saric, Rose
Tier 2: Wiggins, Teague
Tier 3:

PHO: Suns got a deal done for Ariza and in return they get Oubre and Rivers from the Wizards. Warren is going to be an extremely popular play, but I do have some concern for him at 6.6k. Part of that concern was mentioned above in Cov playing the 4 and matching up with him. He should be fine against Saric defense all day, but Cov is a good defender that will slow him down. Booker is also set to return here so that lowers the usage a bit for Warren and Melton.

Tier 1: Holmes (GPP)
Tier 2: Warren, Bridges
Tier 3: Booker, Josh Jackson

Good talk and good luck

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NBA DFS – 12/13/2018

Happy Friday eve the 13th. 4 game slate.. let’s get it

LAL @ HOU (-5.5) o/u 223

LAL: Houston has actually played decent defense at home and are playing at a slow pace this year making this not a great matchup for the Lakers. Lebron is going to be matched up against Tucker in this one which means Kuzma is going to have Gordon or Harden on him. Ball is too cheap again here and in play even though it isn’t a great matchup against CP3. Hart too should get 30+ minutes, but he’s also not a high usage player and will have the task of trying to slow down Harden.

Tier 1: Lebron, Ball (GPP)
Tier 2: Hart, KCP, Chandler, Kuzma (GPP)
Tier 3: McGee (GPP)

HOU: Now on the other end this is a great matchup for the Rockets. Harden is $100 cheaper than the King, but he gets a pace up matchup at home. CP3 came way up after having a good game last time out, but Harden dominates usage while he is on the court so that leaves little room for upside at his price tag. Capela has been losing some minutes to Nene, but is still a great play on this 4 game slate. Ennis is out for this one so GG and House should get some run. Brandon Knight is also set to make his debut after being out for almost 2 years. I do have some interest in him and will have some exposure in GPPs.

Tier 1: Capela, Harden
Tier 2: CP3, Knight (GPP), Gordon (GPP), GG, Tucker
Tier 3:

 

LAC @ SA (-2) o/u 223

LAC: The Clippers get a much better matchup tonight after getting smacked by the Raptors in their last game. Lou Will is still out for this one so the guard rotation should open up a bit for Bradley, SGA, and Beverley. The Spurs are better defensively at home, but this is still a pretty good matchup. I expect this game to stay competitive and Tobias is going to be the first player I target here. SGA and Beverley will be my next favorite plays with Lou being out. This is a Boban revenge game for anyone who wants a narrative. I can’t really see him get much time though especially if the Spurs start LMA at center.

Tier 1: Tobias
Tier 2: SGA, Gallo, Harrell
Tier 3: Beverley, Boban

SA: Honestly I was somewhat surprised the Spurs actually did what they were supposed to do and blowout the Suns. Let’s see if they can go back to back against the Clips. Forbes has had back to back 30+ minutes and good games. I still don’t have confidence in him though and don’t expect that play to continue. LMA probably has the best matchup at center, but Derozan and Gay are in plus matchups themselves against Bradley and Tobias respectively. I like all three in this one especially if it indeed does stay competitive and they can get their full minutes.

Tier 1: LMA, Derozan, Gay
Tier 2: Forbes, White
Tier 3: Mills, Poeltl

CHI @ ORL (-4.5) o/u 209

CHI: The Bulls are getting healthy now which means they are losing their appeal in DFS. Dunn and Portis will most likely be on a minutes restriction again, but if you want to gamble on one I’d lean toward Dunn who only has to beat out Arcidiacono for minutes. Wendell and LaVine seem like they should get 30 minutes regularly still so they are in play here for the moment.

Tier 1: LaVine, Carter Jr. 
Tier 2: Dunn (GPP), Markkannen, Holiday
Tier 3: Portis (GPP)

ORL: Both of these teams are bad so it should be a good game. Vooch is one of my favorite plays, if not my favorite play of this slate. His price has come down since he hasn’t been getting as much run in blowout scenarios, so this is a nice spot for him to see full minutes and get back to 50 burgers. Fournier and Simmons are questionable for this game so follow that to see if they are in or out. If they are out then Isaac and Ross should get more run and viable plays. Gordon has been playing well, but I just can’t get myself to pay up to $7800 for him with Kuzma, Harris, and LMA all cheaper and in just as good of spots.

Tier 1: Vooch
Tier 2: Isaac/Ross (if Simmons/Fournier sit), Augustin
Tier 3:

DAL @ PHO (+7) o/u 211

DAL: Barea may be out for this one after spraining his ankle last night so that would bump up Brunson and Devin Harris. DSJ I assume will be out again so Brunson should still be starting. He struggled last game, but should bounce back here against a weak Phoenix team, especially if Barea is out. Deandre is in a great spot here as Ayton is getting a reputation of not playing defense. Dirk should make his debut soon so that’s another piece of news to watch out for. As of right now I am assuming he’s not playing..

Tier 1: DJ, Brunson (if Barea and DSJ are out)
Tier 2: Doncic, Devin Harris (if Barea and DSJ are out)
Tier 3:

PHO: Melton is giving the Suns a much needed spark these last few games. I expect him to be very chalky again even at the 4.9k price tag. Make sure Booker is out and Okobo is still in the G league before firing him up. Troy Daniels is questionable too for this one, so that could mean even more minutes for Melton and Bridges. Ariza did sit out last game for “rest” so I will consider him in for now. Warren is looking like my favorite play from the Suns as he’s the only consistently competent player as long as he’s healthy and not getting ejected.

Tier 1: Warren, Melton
Tier 2: Ariza, Evans (GPP)
Tier 3: Daniels, Bridges

Good talk and good luck

NBA DFS – 12/12/2018

Back to the big slate and back to breaking it down by position. Here are my plays from first glance that stand out. Obviously there will probably be a lot of news coming out so adjust accordingly as that comes out. Here we go

Point Guards:

Russell Westbrook $10900 @ NO – Pelicans play at on e of the fastest paces in the league so this spot is perfect. Add that to a price tag under 11k and it is going to be hard to pass on Russ here.

Tim Frazier $4100 vs OKC – Tim’s price didn’t move here and he’s still playing 30+ minutes a game. Can’t ignore him again, plus I like targeting the point guards against Russ.

Ricky Rubio $5900 vs MIA – Miami offers a good matchup and Rubio just got a price decrease of $400 as he returns home to play in Utah. What’s not to like?

DeAaron Fox $7300 vs MIN – What does the Fox say? I don’t care, but I do know this guy is on a roll. I don’t think Teague will be able to keep up

John Wall $8400 vs BOS – People may shy away from here which only raises the appeal I have. Good pivot off of Kyrie if you don’t want to go there.

Kyrie Irving $8500 @ WAS – Great matchup versus the Wizards and he should be well rested after sitting out last game.

Goran Dragic $5700 @ UTA – He feels to cheap here at this price. With everyone healthy though he may not get a full workload so this play does have more risk than I’d like

T.J. McConnell $3500 vs BKN – since Fultz has been diagnosed with his nerve condition and the Sixers trading for Jimmy Buter, McConnell has slowly worked his way into getting solid minutes. Like him here especially if Butler ends up sitting out

Jalen Brunson $3800 vs ATL – DSJ is already ruled out for the game today so that means Brunson should continue to see high 20s to low 30s in minutes. Hard to not like that against this Hawks team who features a point guard in Trae Young that doesn’t play defense

NBA DFS – 12/11/2018

Crazy slate yesterday with all the news and value that opened up. Hopefully you did better than I did.. anyways let’s get back to it with a small 3 game slate

POR @ HOU (-6.5) o/u 219

POR: This is looking like the game to target at first look on this three game slate. Lillard has a tough matchup with CP3, but in a 3 game slate raw points become more important and he should still have one of the highest totals on the board. I never like paying for McCollum, but he is in play here on the 3 slate as well. Aminu is too cheap with him scoring 32.5+ DK fantasy points in 4 of the last 5. Rockets run small often so he should play plenty of minutes.

Tier 1: Aminu, Nurkic
Tier 2: Lillard, McCollum, Turner
Tier 3: Collins, Harkless

HOU: CP3 and Harden look like hard fades for me. Harden is the most expensive play on the board coming in $1000 more than Lillard at 10.7k. Anytime he is under 11k he has to be considered. Capela is worth a look too even though he hasn’t had a great game in awhile. For that reason he’s more a Tier 2 play for me especially when I can save $200 and play Nurkic on the other side.

Tier 1: CP3, Harden
Tier 2: Capela, Tucker, Ennis
Tier 3:

PHO @ SA (-12.5) o/u 218

PHO: The Spurs have not been that good defensively this year, but the back to back for the Suns worries me in terms of a possible blowout. They also just played the Clippers to an overtime game last night to add on a few more minutes of run. It’s going to be hard for me to roster anyone here. Ayton is relatively cheap and worth a look I suppose, although my favorite play is going to be Holmes. Holmes will get run regardless of the score so he’s safer in this one. Ariza and Jackson should still get 30+ minutes here with Warren most likely still on a minutes restriction.

Tier 1: Holmes (GPP)
Tier 2: Ariza, Josh Jackson, Ayton, Melton
Tier 3: Okobo, Bridges

SA: Popovich is not one to leave his starters in on either side of the blowout. He will look to sit LMA and Gay the first chance he gets so they are the riskiest plays here unless you think it stays close. Derozan is risky too especially with his price tag being inflated to $9200. It is hard to see him getting more than 30 minutes in this one. Keep an eye on the status of Bertans and Cunningham. If they are ruled out then Poeltl becomes interesting. He should get 20+ minutes depending on how competitive this game stays.

Tier 1: Forbes (GPP), White (GPP), Poeltl (GPP), Bertans (GPP if he plays)
Tier 2: Derozan, LMA, Gay
Tier 3:

TOR @ LAC (+4.5) o/u 226

TOR: So I’m coming back to this game and reevaluating after running some numbers last night and seeing the Raptors aren’t as good defensively on the road as we’d assume.. Lowry is cheap enough now to where I will have some exposure in GPPs. He has been awful of late, but he has to bounceback one of these days. Kawhi is in a great spot in regards to matchup as neither Harris or Gallo will be able to guard him. His price is just not too attractive. Siakam is a fairly safe play here but his price doesn’t offer much room for upside. I think Ibaka will get the majority of center minutes against Harrell even if Boban and Jonas start in this one. Last thing to note is that the Raptors are on the front end of a back to back here so pay attention to possible rest for players.

Tier 1: Lowry (GPP), Ibaka, Leonard
Tier 2: Siakam, Jonas (GPP), Green, VanVleet
Tier 3:

LAC: Lou Will exited early last night so that could open up some extra minutes in the backcourt if he misses the game tonight. That would give SGA, Beverley, and Bradley a boost. This isn’t a great matchup for anyone as the Raptors are a good defensive team from top to bottom. **Update here because it isn’t as bad of a matchup as I thought outside of small forward against Kawhi.. If Boban gets the start he is worth a GPP dart with his $3800 price tag. If this game stays competitive it will be because of Harris, Gallo, and/or Harrell most likely. Harris is my favorite play of those three and it makes sense to run him back with someone on the Raptors side because if Harris plays well that means this will be a competitive game which leads to a full complement of minutes for the other side. Hopefully that made sense…

Tier 1: Harris (GPP), Boban (if he starts GPP), Gallo
Tier 2: Harrell, SGA/Beverley (bump up if Lou Will is out), Lou Will (GPP if he plays)
Tier 3:

Good talk and good luck

NBA DFS – 11/24/2018

Happy Thanksgiving plus 2. Nice manageable 7 game slate today so let’s get back into it.

HOU @ CLE (+9) o/u 210

HOU: On the second night of the back to back here and CP3 is already ruled out. Immediately that raises my appeal for Harden. This could be a get right game for Gordon as well who has been getting minutes, but not playing well. He should see a usage bump a bit. Capela has been rolling and is too cheap here based on his recent production.

Tier 1: Harden (GPP), Capela
Tier 2: Gordon, Tucker
Tier 3: Green, Clark

CLE: No one really stands out here on having a good matchup. They are all relatively cheap though. If Nwaba starts again he is my favorite play of the Cavs. He should get 30 minutes if he stays out of foul trouble and gets Harden defending him, which is the best matchup of the starters. Cedi has been playing better, but gets a tough matchup with Tucker here. TT has some upside here as he is always a double double threat.

Tier 1: Nwaba (as long as he is starting)
Tier 2: TT
Tier 3: Sexton, Clarkson

NO @ WAS (-1) o/u 239

NO: Highest total on the board tonight with a close spread. Davis is listed as questionable so we will need to pay attention to that. Wizards are not the best rebounding team so all 3 of the bigs are in play here. Jrue as well continues to be in play here with Elfrid on the shelf still.

Tier 1: AD, Mirotic, Randle, Jrue
Tier 2: Moore
Tier 3: Miller, Johnson

WAS: The Wizards at home get a bump. Wall is down to $8500 so he has a lot of appeal. Dwight is a game time decision and should he sit again you can give a bump to Markieff, Jeff Green, and Otto Porter. Oubre should get decent minutes here, but he keeps disappointing in these situations. At his price I’m okay avoiding him.

Tier 1: Wall, Beal, Morris (GPP if Howard is out)
Tier 2: Porter, Green, Satoransky
Tier 3:

CHI @ MIN (-10.5) o/u 219

CHI: LaVine seems too cheap here at 7.8k. Outside of him and Parker it is hard to trust anyone in this rotation. Arcidiacono is a punt play at point if you need one who seems to have taken over the starting role for the time being. Holiday as well is up and down and just had a great game last night against Miami. All these guys I named off are in play, but they also could disappoint after they Lavine played 35 minutes last night and the rest played around 40 minutes. Oh and don’t forget the revenge narrative for LaVine.

Tier 1: LaVine
Tier 2: Holiday, Parker, Arcidiacono
Tier 3: Carter Jr.

MIN: KAT is coming up on price now, but is still worth a look. Teague is the other starter I have some interest in at 6k. Wiggins is a pass for me. Roco is getting plenty of minutes here too at 5.7k and has some appeal.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: KAT, Teague, Roco, Rose
Tier 3: Gibson, Saric

DEN @ OKC (-5.5) o/u 216

DEN: Garry Harris is questionable for this one and if he is out Murray should get more usage. I like Murray already at his 6.3k price point so if Harris is out that only adds to my appeal. Not super high on anyone else here, but the Joker has come down in price enough that’s his on the radar a bit.

Tier 1: Murray
Tier 2: Joker, Millsap
Tier 3:

OKC: Westbrook is always in play when he’s healthy and under 11k. That is the case today so he has to be looked at. PG is down to 8.3k now and has appeal for me now here. He offers a solid floor and decent ceiling, even with the usage drop playing with Russ. Adams at 6.6k is intriguing, but again Westbrook being back limits my appeal.

Tier 1: Westbrook
Tier 2: PG, Grant
Tier 3: Adams, Schroder

SA @ MIL (-9.5) o/u 226

SA: The back to back worries me a bit here with Popovich randomly resting people in the past. LMA is too cheap here though and has a great matchup inside with Lopez. If this game stays close then LMA, Gay, and Demar are all in play, but at the hint of a blowout I expect the starters to be pulled and rested.

Tier 1: LMA
Tier 2: Derozan, Gay, Mills
Tier 3:

MIL: Spurs aren’t that good at defense this year, but they still gameplan against the best players. For that reason I don’t love Giannis at his current price point. Middleton and Bledsoe are fine plays, but again nothing I will necessarily be prioritizing.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Bledsoe, Middleton, Brogdon
Tier 3: Giannis

SAC @ GS (-6) o/u 225

SAC: WCS is too cheap here. He should get 30+ minutes here against the likes of Looney and Bell. Fox is coming back up in price, but is still making this team go and gets a good matchup here. Bogdan is only 4k and that may be the lowest price we get him for the rest of the year. His minutes are on the rise and he is playing well so you have to look there.

Tier 1: WCS, Fox (GPP), Bogdan
Tier 2: Hield, Bagley, Bjelica
Tier 3:

GS: Dray and McKinnie are both out again for this one. That makes Durant and Klay solid plays once again. Bell got extra run in the blowout last night and is worth a look at only $3200. Cook is in play here too with Dray still out and GS needing him to handle the ball.

Tier 1: KD, Klay
Tier 2: Cook
Tier 3: Bell (GPP), Looney

BOS @ DAL (+2) o/u 213

BOS: The Celtics were able to rest last night in the blowout of Atlanta. Kyrie is back in play tonight. Horford is back in the lineup while Hayward is out. Baynes should still get the start and is a punt play at center if you need it.

Tier 1: Kyrie, Horford
Tier 2: Baynes, Morris (if he’s coming off the bench)
Tier 3: Smart (if Rozier sits)

DAL: Matthews and DSJ are listed questionable here so we need to pay attention to that news. Boston is a solid defensive team overall so I don’t particularly like anyone here. Doncic and DJ somewhat viable here, but still not prioritizing them tonight in this slate.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Doncic, DJ
Tier 3: Barnes

Good talk and good luck

NBA DFS – 11/21/2018

Huge 13 game slate today so let’s get started. I’ll try to keep it short and sweet for the both of us. Stay tuned to the news as always and adjust from there as there will probably be a lot of news breaking today.

IND @ CHA (-4) o/u 217

IND: The big news we need to know here is whether or not Dipo and Turner are playing. If Dipo is out it’s similar to last game as far as who to target. If you faded reke last time then you survived, but I still will go right back to him at hopefully lower ownership here with the $5400 price tag. Again big slate here so don’t have to force him in per se.

Tier 1: Sabonis (if Turner is out), Tyreke (GPP)
Tier 2: Bojan, Dipo (if he plays), Cory Joseph (if Dipo is out),Turner (if he plays)
Tier 3: Thad

CHA: Hernangomez is questionable so if he’s out I don’t mind going Zeller here because that locks him into 30 or so minutes. Kemba is still on fire, but still too expensive especially if Dipo emds up playing.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Kemba (GPP), Zeller (if Hernangomez is out)
Tier 3:

NO @ PHI (-3.5) o/u 236

NO: AD versus Joel. This is set up for a good matchup here, but maybe not the best for DFS. Neither have actually played that well against each other in the past so I don’t think it’s necessary to force either in. Jrue is in play here with Elfrid still out. Randle feels like chasing points at 7k, while Mirotic has either reverted to the Mirotic we used to know, or he’s due for some regression.

Tier 1: Jrue Holiday
Tier 2: Mirotic, Randle
Tier 3: AD, Moore

PHI: I like Embiid here more than AD and he’s cheaper while arguably playing better than him recently. Simmons is fairly priced here and Butler seems too cheap at only 7.1k. He hasn’t found his groove in Philly yet, but in a fast paced game like this he could get some extra peripheral stats to reach value here. No Fultz for this one so Shamet or McConnell could get some more run as well.

Tier 1: Simmons, Butler (GPP)
Tier 2: Embiid, Muscala, Chandler (GPP), Redick
Tier 3: Shamet

NY @ BOS (-14) o/u 217

NY: The Knicks switched up the starting 5 and competed well with Portland last night. I would think they stick with the same starters here. Vonleh is too cheap if that is the case at $4100. Kanter as well is worth a look at his price with him starting. THJ is the only backcourt play seeing consistent minutes, but at $7300 in a tough matchup I’d rather look elsewhere. The rest of the plays are all darts to me in this backcourt with Fizdale randomly switching them out it seems.

Tier 1: Vonleh
Tier 2: Kanter
Tier 3:

BOS: Blowout potential here so if you want to punt on Smart, Rozier, even Jaylen Brown, I don’t hate the plays. Hayward at 5.5k is intriguing a bit. Horford in a similar boat with the reduced price point. Kyrie is way up to 9k in easy fade territory for me.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Smart, Rozier, Brown
Tier 3: Theis

TOR @ ATL (+7) o/u 226

TOR: Leonard is most likely out for the back to back here. We have to look at Lowry, VanVleet, and Siakam as they all get the biggest bumps. Miles and OG are questionable so keep an eye on that. Delon Wright should get more run with Leonard out too and would get even more minutes if one of them is ruled out. Ibaka is in play again at the 6.3k tag. The Hawks are bad and the blowout potential always exists, but at least they are at home in this one.

Tier 1: Lowry, Ibaka, Siakam
Tier 2: VanVleet, Wright, Green
Tier 3:

ATL: Not a whole lot to like here. Len and Demon are at an even split for center minutes right now and John Collins is back in the mix. If word comes out Collins doesn’t have a minutes restriction than he could be worth a look. Trae is boom or bust and depending on how he’s playing will determine how much we see Lin. GPP only play for sure. Prince is cheap and not a terrible play at the price, but he hasn’t shown the upside for awhile.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Trae (GPP), Prince
Tier 3: Dedmon, Len

PHO @ CHI (-2) o/u 213

PHO: This game is really intriguing to me and could be worth a look to game stack. Booker if he is at point guard again I really like even with the price bump. Warren played 39 minutes with Ariza back and playing 41 minutes himself. He’s firmly in play. Ayton is too cheap here and worth a look too against a fellow rookie in Wendell Carter Jr.

Tier 1: Booker, Warren
Tier 2: Ayton
Tier 3:

CHI: Lots of plays on this side too. Wendell has been priced down recently due to his minutes fluctuating. Lavine under 8k is definitely in play against this poor Suns team. Holiday is getting plenty of minutes to pay off the 4.6k tag here. You could even look to Parker in this one although he feels too pricey even in this plus matchup.

Tier 1: LaVine, Holiday, Carter Jr.
Tier 2: Parker
Tier 3: Arcidiacono, Harrison

LAL @ CLE (+9) o/u 221

LAL: Lebron returns to his old team for the first time since leaving town for the second time. He’s just too pricey for me in what could be a blowout game. Ball has really been off recently yet I still want to have some exposure because he has such a high ceiling. Pope seems like a good punt play at $3500 while he’s getting minutes with Rondo still out. Ingram and Kuzma are in the don’t love don’t hate category for me here. Hart and Stephenson off the bench could also get some extra run in here if it does turn to a blowout.

Tier 1: Caldwell-Pope
Tier 2: Ingram, Kuzma, Ball (GPP), Hart
Tier 3: Lebron

CLE: Sexton is questionable here and if he misses Clarkson becomes a really good play. Thompson is relatively cheap still. Cedi is way down to $4300 and has some appeal to me now since that mitigates a lot of risk. Hood too is in a similar boat as him. No JR anymore so that opens the rotation a bit, but just a bit. May see a few more minutes to Korver because of that.

Tier 1: Clarkson (if Sexton is out)
Tier 2: Sexton, TT, Hood, Cedi
Tier 3: Nance

POR @ MIL (-6) o/u 226

POR: Coming off a tougher than should have been game in New York, the Blazers now take on the Bucks for the second time this year. In the last meeting McCollum went off for 40 real points while Lillard under performed with only 27.5 DK fpts. Lillard is too pricey here for me. Nurkic again is my favorite play here, especially while he is actually seeing consistent minutes. Don’t hate Turner here either who is locked into around 30 minutes a night with Harkless and Seth Curry out for the foreseeable future.

Tier 1: Nurkic
Tier 2: Turner
Tier 3: Stauskas, Aminu, McCollum

MIL: I like Bledsoe and Middleton more than Giannis here on a point per dollar standpoint. They get a much better matchup in the backcourt against Lillard and McCollum. Lopez is playing minutes in the low 30s and is relatively cheap still.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Bledsoe, Middleton, Lopez
Tier 3: Giannis, Brogdon

DEN @ MIN (-2) o/u 215

DEN: This game will most likely go overlooked, but there are still some great plays to be had. Jokic at $9700 stands out at the top in this one. He offers immense upside and if you want to pivot off the higher-priced studs at center is worth a look. Targeting centers against Towns is not usually a bad idea either. Murray seems a little pricey here while Harris now seems too cheap. I’ll still be avoiding Juancho and Morris for the most part. Millsap and/or Lyles should get a few extra minutes to match with the larger frontcourt. Don’t mind punting on Plumlee either if you need a cheap center.

Tier 1: Harris
Tier 2: Jokic (GPP)
Tier 3: Plumlee, Lyles, Millsap

MIN: I realize I’m forgetting the short and sweet part to this article… anyways KAT is in a great spot here and is too cheap with Butler no longer around. Saric is seeing his minutes trending up and is worth a shot on in a GPP, but the Thibs – Gibson connection still worries me. Roco should play big minutes as long as it’s competitive and is worth a look.

Tier 1: KAT
Tier 2: Saric (GPP), Roco, Teague
Tier 3:

DET @ HOU (-9) o/u 214

DET: This game in general is not teribly appealing to me. Drummond and BG are just not good enough value on this slate. Reggie and Galloway are a dart if you want somekne super low-owned.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Galloway, Reggie Jackson
Tier 3:

HOU: Not super interested here as well. All thes plays have upside, but you can find cheaper upsode elsewhere at the respective positions. Paul and Harden are fairly priced, but I’d rather wait to target them when they aren’t both healthy.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Capela, Ennis
Tier 3: Harden, Paul

BKN @ DAL (-5.5) o/u 215

BKN: Minutes are inconsistent so you have to assume that risk when rostering Brooklyn players. Russell stands out again as well as Dinwiddie a bit. Allem should also get good minutes matched up with Deandre here.

Tier 1: Russell, Allen
Tier 2: Dinwiddie
Tier 3:

DAL: Need to wait to see DSJ and Barea news here. If they are out then Donci looks like a great play. DJ I don’t hate in this spot, but again there are so many viable centers in this slate.

Tier 1: Doncic (if DSJ or Barea is out)
Tier 2: Finney-Smith, DJ
Tier 3: Barnes

MEM @ SA (-2.5) o/u 200

MEM: Low total in a slow game here. Not something appealing to me in a 13 game slate. JJJ is cheap still and has incredible upside if he stays out of foul trouble. Green is a dart if you want one here while he’s cheap and on a minutes restriction. I guess revenge narrative for Kyle Anderson is here too.

Tier 1: JJJ (GPP)
Tier 2: Green (GPP), Anderson
Tier 3:

SA: LMA and Gay are fairly cheap, but they stand out as great plays in this matchup. Nothing else really stands out to me.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: LMA, Gay
Tier 3:

SAC @ UTA (-9.5) o/u 218

SAC: Fox dissappointed last game and should be lower-owned for this one. His price is $300 more expensive too. WCS is way too cheap to me. Gobert is a good defender, but moreso in the lane deterring shots rather than defending in the post.

Tier 1: WCS, Fox
Tier 2: Hield
Tier 3:

UTA: Ingles has come down in price and is worth a look. Mitchell is intriguing and coming off a bad performance which actually increases my appeal in the pace up game here.

Tier 1: Mitchell (GPP)
Tier 2: Rubio, Ingles
Tier 3:

OKC @ GS (-1) o/u 221

OKC: Russ seems too cheap here with him being healthy. He’s my favorite play to pay up for with Embiid right there with him. PG got a nice decrease with Russ being back and also in play himself.

Tier 1: Russell
Tier 2: PG
Tier 3:

GS: We know the narrative here already. KD is too cheap with Dray and Steph out, but he has been playing bad of late. Still we can’t ignore him. Klay also has appeal here with the recent decrease in price and doesn’t get PG bothering him like KD.

Tier 1: KD (GPP), Klay
Tier 2:
Tier 3:

Good talk and good luck

NBA DFS – 11/19/2018

Happy Monday all. Back to a 9 game slate here on our NBA grind. Let’s get it. We’ll knock out the early games and lock in players that we want from these as we go.

UTA @ IND (+3.5) o/u 206

UTA: Mitchell has been shooting a lot over the last 2, but doesn’t do much else. I like the play, but definitely not forcing him in my lineups. Gobert is slightly underpriced here at 7k in my opinion. I don’t mind Rubio here either at his 5.7k price tag. Game history shows his last two games visiting the Pacers he has put up over 40 DK fpts.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Mitchell, Gobert, Rubio
Tier 3: Favors, Jingles

IND: Dipo has already been ruled out here so Tyreke becomes a great value play. Collison and Cory Joseph also get a significant bump. Lots of sub 5k range players here that should get some more minutes and usage.

Tier 1: Tyreke, Collison, Turner (GPP)
Tier 2: Joseph, Bojan
Tier 3: Sabonis, Thad

BOS @ CHA (+3.5) o/u 218

BOS: Not really high on anyone here. Kyrie is the only one with legit upside, but now his price reflects that. Horford looks pretty cheap here as well, I won’t be targeting him.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Kyrie
Tier 3:

CHA: Kemba had an amazing 60 real points last game and now is way up to 9.9k. That is a price easy for me to fade, but should be fairly low-owned for GPPs as well. Lamb is the other target here for me.

Tier 1: Lamb
Tier 2: Kemba (GPP)
Tier 3:

CLE @ DET (-9.5) o/u 213

CLE: Sexton seems like a good play strictly because he gets so much run and you can lock him into 32-36 minutes almost every night at this point. Thompson is relatively cheap and he should need to be on the floor a lot against the larger front court of the Pistons.

Tier 1: Sexton, TT, Clarkson (GPP)
Tier 2: Nance
Tier 3:

DET: Both Drummond and BG are in a great spot here yet also priced way up. I like Drummond more here over Blake tonight if I have to choose one. Reggie, Ish, and Galloway are cheap, but minutes haven’t been consistent in this backcourt rotation.

Tier 1: Drummond
Tier 2: BG (GPP), Reggie, Ish, Galloway
Tier 3:

PHO @ PHI (-11.5) o/u 220

PHO: Suns are fairly cheap here, but the blowout potential does scare me a little. Ayton at 6.5k is very appealing here and has gotten run even in blowouts. Booker is fairly cheap as well at 7.7k and is the point guard by default which gives him some more upside. Warren is the other one to note for me, but Ariza coming back does decrease his appeal a bit. Bridges is getting the start tonight in his return home so is worth a dart here too.

Tier 1: Ayton, Booker (GPP)
Tier 2: Warren, Bridges
Tier 3:

PHI: Embiid is a little banged up but firmly in play still. Ayton cannot handle him here. Butler is relatively cheap and Simmons is also worth a look, although they do cannibalize each other a bit. Wilson Chandler is a solid punt play with with minutes getting bumped up to 27 today.

Tier 1: Embiid
Tier 2: Simmons, Chandler, Butler
Tier 3: Redick, Fultz

LAC @ ATL (+8) o/u 233

LAC: Gallo has been ruled out so Harris gets the biggest bump I think here. Bradley is back so he will soak up some minutes. I think Harrell possibly could get some run at the 4 too unless they just give all those minutes to Mike Scott. Should be interesting how they split this rotation here with them being so guard heavy.

Tier 1: Lou (GPP), Harris, Harrell
Tier 2: Shai, Beverley, Mike Scott
Tier 3:

ATL: Figuring out this rotation is always tough. With the ruling out of Gallo it should stay closer so if I take a chance on anyone here it is going to be Trae most likely. Prince was ruled out initially and now is back and active so that should be a low-owned spot if you want to take a chance on him as well. If you think Lin isn’t going to

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Prince, Trae
Tier 3: Lin

DAL @ MEM (-3) o/u 201

DAL: Doncic and DSJ get a bump with Barea and Wesley Matthews out for this one. I do like them, but this is a tough Memphis defense and one of the lowest totals on the board tonight. Barnes you could go to as well or even Finney-Smith if you need a punt.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: DSJ, Doncic
Tier 3: Finney-Smith, Barnes

MEM: Green is back after breaking his jaw and giving the starting job to JJJ. He should get minutes in the low 20s and is worth a look at only $4100. Conley is in a good spot here as Dallas has been hurt by guards all year. Gasol is viable too, but there are just so many plays at Center I most likely won’t squeeze him in.

Tier 1: Conley, Gasol
Tier 2: Green (GPP)
Tier 3:

SA @ NO (-7.5) o/u 222

SA: Despite playing last night Gay is actually active for this game. He just seems too cheap here at $5300. LMA is in a great spot too at 8k and we already saw him play well against the Pelis once this year. Outside of that I don’t have a whole lot of interest.

Tier 1: LMA, Gay
Tier 2:
Tier 3:

NO: AD is matchup proof, but he does seem to get a lot of attention from the Spurs defense every time he plays them. at 11.6k I don’t mind fading him here. I actually prefer Giannis a bit more for $300 less against the Nuggets. Jrue is getting pricey to me, but he will get most of the ball-handling duties with Elfrid out for awhile. Mirotic may be my favorite play here at 7.1k, especially in tournaments.

Tier 1: Jrue, Mirotic (GPP)
Tier 2: Moore, Randle
Tier 3: AD

DEN @ MIL (-5.5) o/u 224

DEN: Jokic stands out as a great play here and centers against the Bucks has been a thing for awhile now. Harris is still cheap at 6.1k while Barton is out bumping his usage and minutes up.  Millsap and Murray I don’t hate, but I also don’t love them so I won’t be forcing them into lineup. Lyles has come down a bit and is worth a look in tourneys at 4k.

Tier 1: Jokic
Tier 2: Harris, Lyles
Tier 3: Millsap, Murray

MIL: There should be some good plays here going overlooked actually. Giannis has no one to stop him here, but we all already knew that. Bledsoe is a fine play against Murray while Brogdon is too cheap at only 4.7k here. Rounding out the backcourt you get Middleton who is actually priced up a bit to where I don’ need to force him in either. Lopez looked good last time they played Denver so he has some appeal to me as well.

Tier 1: Giannis
Tier 2: Bledsoe, Brogdon, Lopez
Tier 3: Middleton

OKC @ SAC (+3) o/u 224

OKC: The late night hammer! We get Westbrook most likely playing in this one now after he showed up and went through shootaround. Diallo is a punt play here with no Abrines. Adams, Schroder, and PG all get a bump down now too. Grant is still in play in these fast-paced games as he should benefit from the extra positions giving him a few more peripheral stats.

Tier 1: Westbrook (GPP), Diallo (punt)
Tier 2: Adams
Tier 3: Schroder, PG

SAC: Fox is way too underpriced here at only 6.1k and needs to be considered in all lineups. He stood out from the start so I assume he will be super chalky. WCS is worth a look at the discounted price even though he gets a tough matchup against Adams here. Hield is also at a discount, but that could be due to Bogdan’s return and him taking some of his minutes. Bjelica and Bagley are interesting here as well. Bagley did start getting the backup center minutes so even if Bjelica plays well and gets more run, Bagley is not completely out at his cheap price tag tonight.

Tier 1: Fox
Tier 2: WCS, Bagley (GPP), Hield, Bogdan
Tier 3: Bjelica (GPP)

 

Good talk and good luck