DFS Week 9 – 11/4/2018

10 games on the main slate again this week. Here we go.

CHI @ BUF (+10) o/u 37.5

CHI: Howard is down to $4700 in this one. With the Vegas spread set for a blowout it could play to his advantage. I do like him more than Cohen for sure as he should get 20 or so carries and possibly a touchdown. With Tarik you are hoping for a few big plays from him. At the $6200 price tag I will pass.

Tier 1: Howard, CHI D/ST
Tier 2: Cohen, Gabriel
Darts:
Punts:

BUF: Same thing as every other week here for the Bills.. nothing.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

TB @ CAR (-6.5) o/u 55

TB: Fitzmagic has retaken the starting gig at QB for this week after Jameis’s dismal 4 interception performance against the Bengals. He will probably be super chalky at his $5500 price point. The Bucs have shown zero run game so that only increases the appeal for him and the passing attack. Desean probably gets the biggest bump with him back if we compare stats.

Tier 1: Fitzmagic, Howard, Evans, Desean
Tier 2: Godwin
Darts: Barber (super cheap)
Punts:

CAR: Tampa has little to no defense and one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Cam got a price bump but still has to be considered here. Moore, Funchess, and Olsen are also in consideration. I like Moore the most once you look at the salaries.

Tier 1: Cam, Moore, McCaffrey
Tier 2: Funchess, Olsen
Darts:
Punts:

KC @ CLE (+9) o/u 52.5

KC: KC will try to keep it rolling as they head into Cleveland this week. Mahomes is always in play as long as you can squeeze him into your lineup. Hill at 8k lowers my appeal some. Kelce is fairly expensive as well, but great for GPP’s with his high ceiling.

Tier 1: Mahomes, Kelce, Watkins
Tier 2: Hill
Darts:
Punts:

CLE: The runningback coach is taking over playcalling duties this week. Without any experience this could be really bad, or benefit the players. Landry is sneaky play that could get

Tier 1: Chubb, Landry
Tier 2: Baker Mayfield, Njoku
Darts:
Punts:

NYJ @ MIA (-3) o/u 42.5

NYJ: Jets on the road in Miami.. yeah moving right along here.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Crowell, McGuire
Punts:

MIA: Another team to fade for me. Next!

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Drake
Punts:

PIT @ BAL (-2) o/u 47

PIT: Baltimore has a tough defense especially at home. I won’t have much exposure to this matchup. The usual targets are not much more than dart throws with their price tags to me.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Conner, AB, Vance, JuJu
Punts:

BAL: The Raven’s offense has an exploitable matchup this week. Flacco will be throwing the ball a lot like always, and is only $5300. Crabtree is my favorite receiver of the bunch in this one. Brown is more of a GPP dart with his low floor.

Tier 1: Crabtree, Flacco
Tier 2:
Darts: Snead, John Brown
Punts:

DET @ MIN (-5) o/u 48.5

DET: With Golden Tate being shipped out to Philly, the remaining receiving core of Jones and Golladay get a bump up. They are relatively cheap and priced similarly with neither above $5500.

Tier 1: Golladay
Tier 2: Stafford, Jones, Kerryon
Darts:
Punts:

MIN: Diggs will probably sit this one out which then sends Laquon Treadwell to the starting lineup. Theilen has been on a tear and has to be in consideration as he looks to keep the 100 yards streak alive. Rudolph will also get a slight bump with Diggs out. At $3600 Rudolph looks like a steal.

Tier 1: Theilen, Rudolph
Tier 2: Murray, Cousins
Darts:
Punts: Treadwell

ATL @ WAS (-2) o/u 48

ATL: Matt Ryan outside of the home dome always gets me worries a bit. His price tag of $5700 definitely increases my appeal as he should still be able to reach value here in a close game that he may have to throw a lot in. Julio is due for a TD one of these games, and what better way to get it than against his old rival Josh Norman?

Tier 1: Julio, Matt Ryan
Tier 2: Hooper
Darts: Ridley
Punts:

WAS: Chris Thompson has been ruled out this week. Bibbs should be involved a bit, and AP becomes an even better play at 6k. Alex Smith seems way too cheap here in a game he should have to be throwing to keep pace with the Falcons.

Tier 1: AP, Alex Smith
Tier 2: Paul Richardson
Darts: Bibbs
Punts:

HOU @ DEN (-1) o/u 46

HOU: Demaryius Thomas is now on the away team in Denver. He steps into the number 2 WR roll and should get plenty of field time with Fuller and Coutee already ruled out. Deshaun is too expensive, while Lamar is too cheap .

Tier 1: Miller
Tier 2: Thomas, Hopkins
Darts:
Punts:

DEN: Sutton is going to be another chalk play of the day. He is cheap and in play bottom line. Sanders gets a bump as with DT leaving town and should be even more of the focal point in the Denver offense. No Royce again so back to the Phillip Lindsay well.

Tier 1: Lindsay, Sutton, Sanders
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

LAC @ SEA (even) o/u 47.5

LAC: The Chargers are coming off the by week and should get Melvin Gordon back. The offense runs through him so he is always in play as long as he is playing. At receiver Allen has a favorable matchup that he should be able to take advantage of.

Tier 1: Keenan Allen
Tier 2: Rivers, Gordon, Mike Williams
Darts:
Punts:

SEA: The news to pay attention for is whether or not Carson is playing in this game. If he’s out Mike Davis should get the bulk of the carries with Penny backing him up. David Moore is a punt play at receiver if you need another one. Other than that not much interest in Seattle.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Carson (if he plays)
Darts:
Punts: David Moore

LAR @ NO (+2) o/u 57.5

LAR: The Saints have been solid against the run, and terrible against the pass so far this season.  It will be interesting to see if they can slow Gurley at all in this one. If they can then the passing attack only gets more appeal. This is also a revenge game for Cooks so he gets a bump for that as well.

Tier 1: Woods, Goff
Tier 2: Gurley, Kupp, Cooks
Darts:
Punts:

NO: The Saints are going to have to score to keep up in this one. Kamara is too cheap in my opinion here even with Ingram back. Game script could help him out more as well. Thomas is in a similar boat here and also in play.

Tier 1: Brees, Kamara, Thomas
Tier 2: Ingram, Watson
Darts:
Punts:

 

Good talk and good luck

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DFS Week 8 – 10/28/2018

Sunday fun football day. 10 games on the main slate today, let’s jump in.

NYJ @ CHI (-8) o/u 44

NYJ: The Jets in Chicago are basically an auto fade for me. Kearse should get more than 0 fpts this week and Crowell is cheap, but regardless I’ll pass on them.

Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Darts: Crowell, Kearse
Punts:

CHI: This is a great game for the Chi town D to get back on track. With the Vegas spread largely favoring the Bears this could be a Jordan Howard game. Tarik has been more involved and his price has risen because of it. Still the backfield split worries me a bit. Mitch up to 6.1k seems a bit pricey to me now. His WRs are so hit or miss they are complete darts as well.

Tier 1: CHI D/ST
Tier 2: Jordan Howard, Tarik Cohen
Darts: Gabriel, Robinson
Punts:

 

DEN @ KC (-9.5) o/u 53.5

DEN: Denver’s defense is what facilitated last weeks win against the Cards. This week Keenum will have to do something if it is going to stay close. I’m not putting too much faith in that. Lindsay is going to get a lot of work with Freeman out this game. Booker looks like a dart toss. Sanders is the one receiver I’d be interested in here is if you trust Keenum to get the ball to him.

Tier 1: Lindsay
Tier 2: Sanders
Darts: Booker, Sutton
Punts:

KC: Mahomes is hard to not avoid at this point. $7000 is fairly cheap considering the high ceiling and floor he has shown this season. Hunt has been getting his groove back from last year and should keep it going here. Hill and Kelce are too expensive for me.

Tier 1: Mahomes, Hunt
Tier 2: Hill, Kelce
Darts:
Punts:

WAS @ NYG (+1) o/u 43.5 

WAS: AP looks to be in a good spot here with the Giants trading away their starting DT. Chris Thompson is questionable to play and if he sits only adds to AP’s appeal. Not interested in much else here. Alex Smith is cheap and may be able to reach value. The Giants also traded their best DB in Apple so that could open up more air space for Smith to work with.

Tier 1: AP
Tier 2: Thompson, Reed
Darts: Smith, Richardson
Punts:

NYG: The Giants look to be on a downward spiral. Barkley gives them a glimmer of hope, but they already seem to be looking forward to next year’s draft. Beckham gets a tough matchup with Norman this week which should open it up for Sterling Shepard.

Tier 1: Barkley, Shepard
Tier 2:
Darts:
Punts:

BAL @ CAR (+2.5) o/u 44

BAL: Flacco is cheap and could reach value if you are looking to punt at QB. Brown is the WR of choice for me if you want exposure here.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: John Brown
Darts:
Punts: Flacco

CAR: The Panthers are all on sale with the price bump down due to facing the Ravens D. I Cam is worth a look at his price because he is the offense. McCaffrey too at 7k is fairly intriguing.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: McCaffrey (GPP), Cam
Darts:
Punts:

SEA @ DET (-3) o/u 49

SEA: Detroit’s defense is beatable. Moore is a sneaky play at WR who has back to back solid games. Baldwin if he plays is a nice play as well. The backfield is tricky and never consistent so good luck throwing darts there. My favorite play there is Carson again, but we saw how he was used last game. Penny, Davis, or Carson could lead that backfield.

Tier 1: Baldwin
Tier 2:
Darts: Moore, Carson, Penny, Davis
Punts:

DET: Kerryon looked good last week and has a chance to double down this week against the Seahawks. He should get the majority of work again with Theo still out. Out of the receiving core I like Golladay the best. He gets the most looks in the redzone too so that bumps his appeal up as well.

Tier 1: Golladay
Tier 2: Kerryon, Tate
Darts:
Punts:

TB @ CIN (-3.5) o/u 54.5

TB: Cincy’s defense has had it rough the last couple games against Pitt and KC. They could be more inspired and possibly bounceback, but I will still be on TB side this game. Winston slings the ball and should be able to get a few TDs here as the Bengals give up a lot of receiving TDs. Godwin’s price hasn’t moved far away from where we see him at right now. Really like him as a value play.

Tier 1: Evans, Winston, Howard
Tier 2:
Darts: Desean
Punts: Godwin

CIN: A.J. Green is in a great spot here and one of my favorite stud receivers this week. Boyd had a bad game last week in a good spot against KC, but should bounceback here. Tampa Bay has given up a lot of points to tight ends this year so you have to have Uzomah on your radar as well.

Tier 1: Dalton, Uzomah, Green, Boyd
Tier 2: Mixon
Darts:
Punts:

CLE @ PIT (-8.5) o/u 48.5

CLE: Not much to like here outside of Landry and Njoku. Landry is the guy and should get plenty of targets here. They should be throwing a lot to keep up with Pitt. Chubb scares me for that reason so if you want a RB from this game you should look to Duke.

Tier 1: Landry, Njoku
Tier 2: Baker
Darts: Duke
Punts:

PIT: James Conner has had back to back 30 fantasy point games and is still fairly priced at 7.5k. He going to be very chalky here especially with the weather forecast calling for rain. Also with the rain I don’t have much appeal for the passing attack.

Tier 1: James Conner
Tier 2: AB
Darts: Juju, Big Ben
Punts:

IND @ OAK (+3) o/u 51

IND: Andrew Luck is starting to look like the old Andrew Luck. He is going to be slinging the rock all game no matter the score. Mack is in a great spot.. if he plays. Keep an eye on him to make sure he is active. Inman is back and should help Luck even more. At 3k he’s worth a look.

Tier 1: Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton, Mack (if he plays)
Tier 2: Rogers, Ebron
Darts: Inman
Punts:

OAK: The Raiders are going through some turmoil themselves after trading Cooper and seemingly having everyone on the trade block. Gruden is definitely making his mark and we’ll see if it’s for the better down the road. Jordy is now the number 1 receiver and will probably be very chalky. Bryant is a dart here and also cheap.

Tier 1: Jordy
Tier 2: Richard, Martin
Darts: Martavis Bryant, Carr
Punts:

SF @ ARI (+1.5) o/u 41.5

SF: Breida is questionable and may end up playing in this one. If he sits Mostert is a good punt play. He should also be involved in the passing game a bit more with Garcon out.

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Kittle
Darts: Goodwin
Punts: Mostert

ARI: New OC for the Cardinals. We haven’t had many chances to roster David Johnson this year yet this week looks like one of them. He should be low-owned as well with the other elite backs on this slate.

Tier 1: David Johnson
Tier 2:
Darts: Larry Fitzgerald
Punts:

GB @ LAR (-9) o/u 57

GB: Packers should be fresh off the bye week ready to jump right back in against the undefeated Rams. Rodgers will be having to throw a lot this week and the Rams have not looked as good as we thought they were on defense after losing Aqib Talib. In what should be a shootout you should have some exposure. I keep waiting on McCarthy to let go of the reins on Jones, but he is determined to kill all value for all 3 backs in the committee approach that hasn’t been working. Until he is fired everyone in this backfield are strictly dart throws.

Tier 1: Rodgers, Davante, Allison
Tier 2: Graham
Darts: Jones
Punts:

LAR: The Rams are going to be without Kupp in this one. Cooks looks like a great play here after Goodwin and Diggs destroyed the Packer’s secondary. Gurley at 9.8k is hard to pass on with the floor he provides himself. Packers will have to focus on stopping some part of the Rams attack and it probably will be to try and slow down Gurley.

Tier 1: Gurley, Cooks, Woods
Tier 2: Goff
Darts:
Punts:

 

Good talk and good luck